Red Star Macalline Group (1528) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$4.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$0.0400 to HK$0.1600 (+300.0%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +11.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.1500 to HK$0.6400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9700 – HK$6.14 · fair‑value band HK$0.1500 – HK$0.6400 · the HK$1.08 price screens above the HK$0.1600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Red Star Macalline Group (1528) currently trades at HK$1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1600, implying the stock looks roughly 85.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$6.5B. Revenue declined 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -68.2%. Net debt stands at HK$41.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1500 (bear case) to HK$0.6400 (bull case); at HK$1.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at -85%, 1528 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$3.67) versus DCF Models (HK$0.0900). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. operates and manages home improvement and furnishing malls in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls; Managed Shopping Malls; Construction and decoration service; and Others.
Full company description
Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. operates and manages home improvement and furnishing malls in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls; Managed Shopping Malls; Construction and decoration service; and Others. The company leases floor areas of shopping malls; operates as a construction contractor to develop and manage the shopping malls; and retails home furnishing merchandise, as well as offers related decorating services. It also provides initiation, consultation, and management services; and joint marketing, strategy consultation, home design consultation, construction service, internet home decoration, and internet retail services, as well as warehouse logistics services. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Red Star Macalline Home Living and Decorating Company Limited and changed its name to Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. in 2011. Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Red Star Macalline Group reported revenue of HK$6.4B in FY2025 versus HK$15.5B in FY2021, a compound −19.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$23.1B in FY2025.
1528 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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