Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp HK$1.24, price HK$1.06, upside +17.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9700 – HK$6.14 · fair‑value band HK$0.2480 – HK$2.06 · the HK$1.06 price screens below the HK$1.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. operates and manages home improvement and furnishing malls in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls; Managed Shopping Malls; Construction and decoration service; and Others.
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Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. operates and manages home improvement and furnishing malls in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls; Managed Shopping Malls; Construction and decoration service; and Others. The company leases floor areas of shopping malls; operates as a construction contractor to develop and manage the shopping malls; and retails home furnishing merchandise, as well as offers related decorating services. It also provides initiation, consultation, and management services; and joint marketing, strategy consultation, home design consultation, construction service, internet home decoration, and internet retail services, as well as warehouse logistics services. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Red Star Macalline Home Living and Decorating Company Limited and changed its name to Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. in 2011. Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528) currently trades at HK$1.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.24, implying the stock looks roughly 14.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$3.67 per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$1.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.1300, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2480 (bear) to HK$2.06 (bull), the price of HK$1.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Red Star Macalline Grp Corp reported revenue of 6.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 15.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −19.9%/yr. Reported net income was −23.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.6B (≈ $586M) · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.6113 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Return on equity −68.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 41.1% · Revenue (TTM) 6.5B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 18%, 1528 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2480Fair Value HK$1.24Bull HK$2.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
43.1% (2018) → −16.2% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.3% a year for the price.
Compare Red Star Macalline Grp Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+18% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)41% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Star Macalline Grp Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1528
Frequently asked questions
Is Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.24 versus a price of HK$1.06, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1528?
Our model-based fair value for Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is HK$1.24 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.06.
What is the quality score of 1528?
Red Star Macalline Grp Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.24 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2480, optimistic scenario HK$2.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Star Macalline Grp Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.24, about +18% upside versus a price of HK$1.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2480, optimistic scenario HK$2.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Red Star Macalline Grp Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Red Star Macalline Grp Corp pay a dividend?
Red Star Macalline Grp Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Star Macalline Grp Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +41.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1528 use?
Our models discount Red Star Macalline Grp Corp at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Star Macalline Grp Corp that is +41.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Star Macalline Grp Corp grew -14.9 % a year. The price currently implies +41.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (+41.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.78 %: that much free cash flow Red Star Macalline Grp Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Star Macalline Grp Corp it is HK$1.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.06. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Red Star Macalline Grp Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1528 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.06, fair value HK$1.24, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1528?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.24). For Red Star Macalline Grp Corp the two are HK$0.1850 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Star Macalline Grp Corp worth?
The market values Red Star Macalline Grp Corp at about HK$4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.06; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1528?
Our models span a range for Red Star Macalline Grp Corp: cautious scenario HK$0.2480, base HK$1.24, optimistic HK$2.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −68.2%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1528 from its 52-week high?
Red Star Macalline Grp Corp trades at HK$1.06, about 30% below its 52-week high of HK$1.50 and 9% above the low of HK$0.9700 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Star Macalline Grp Corp?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Star Macalline Grp Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.06, calculated fair value HK$1.24 (+18%), Quality Score 41/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1528 calculated?
We run Red Star Macalline Grp Corp through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Red Star Macalline Grp Corp currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$1.06. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.24, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Red Star Macalline Grp Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.2480 to HK$2.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The market capitalisation of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is HK$4.6B (≈ $586M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is 0.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Earnings per share at Red Star Macalline Grp Corp are HK$−0.6113. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The dividend yield of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is −68.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
The operating margin of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Revenue at Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528)?
Earnings per share at Red Star Macalline Grp Corp are growing −98.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Red Star Macalline Grp Corp (1528) carry?
The net debt of Red Star Macalline Grp Corp is 41.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 71.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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