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Red Star Macalline Group (1528) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$4.6B

RS Red Star Macalline Group 1528 · HK
PriceHK$1.08
Fair ValueHK$0.1600
Upside-85.2%
Quality41/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1500 – HK$0.6400 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$0.0400 to HK$0.1600 (+300.0%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +11.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.1500 to HK$0.6400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$6.14 HK$0.9700 Fair Value HK$0.1600 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9700 – HK$6.14 · fair‑value band HK$0.1500 – HK$0.6400 · the HK$1.08 price screens above the HK$0.1600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Red Star Macalline Group (1528) currently trades at HK$1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1600, implying the stock looks roughly 85.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$6.5B. Revenue declined 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -68.2%. Net debt stands at HK$41.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1500 (bear case) to HK$0.6400 (bull case); at HK$1.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at -85%, 1528 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.0900 to HK$3.67). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1700 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1400 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2200 61
EV/EBITDA HK$0.0500 HK$1.51 HK$2.98 54
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0900 HK$2.32 41
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0200 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1700 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1400 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2200 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.9000 HK$2.21 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.0500 HK$1.51 HK$2.98 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.74 HK$3.67 HK$5.48 50

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$3.67) versus DCF Models (HK$0.0900). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$6.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.1%
Return on equity -68.2%
Free cash flow HK$581M FY2025
Operating margin 41.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.6113
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) -98.8%
Net debt HK$41.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. operates and manages home improvement and furnishing malls in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls; Managed Shopping Malls; Construction and decoration service; and Others.

Full company description

Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. operates and manages home improvement and furnishing malls in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls; Managed Shopping Malls; Construction and decoration service; and Others. The company leases floor areas of shopping malls; operates as a construction contractor to develop and manage the shopping malls; and retails home furnishing merchandise, as well as offers related decorating services. It also provides initiation, consultation, and management services; and joint marketing, strategy consultation, home design consultation, construction service, internet home decoration, and internet retail services, as well as warehouse logistics services. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Red Star Macalline Home Living and Decorating Company Limited and changed its name to Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. in 2011. Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Red Star Macalline Group reported revenue of HK$6.4B in FY2025 versus HK$15.5B in FY2021, a compound −19.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$23.1B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$6.4B
Latest YoY
−18.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−23.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (16Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Revenue −19.9%/yr
FY21 HK$15.5B
FY22 HK$14.1B
FY23 HK$11.5B
FY24 HK$7.8B
FY25 HK$6.4B
Net income
FY21 HK$2.0B
FY22 HK$679M
FY23 −HK$2.4B
FY24 −HK$3.0B
FY25 −HK$23.1B

1528 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Star Macalline Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1528

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 520 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 41% · Above median
Revenue growth -4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.93× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.09× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 18.6× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 37
FUTURE 0 · sector 10
PAST 0 · sector 16
HEALTH 54 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 223,000 VND 25,731 VND -88%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$44.76 HK$18.03 -60%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$23.90 HK$18.75 -22%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 3,725 CLP 5,571 CLP +50%
SAGAA SAGAA kr 170.00 kr 75.55 -56%
Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS 2,324 CLP 2,976 CLP +28%
PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR 372.00 IDR 1,208 IDR +225%
PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI 20,975 IDR 19,160 IDR -9%
PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK 3,530 IDR 3,464 IDR -2%
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA 2,495 ARS 3,998 ARS +60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Red Star Macalline Group (1528) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1600 versus a price of HK$1.08, about −85% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1528?
Our model-based fair value for Red Star Macalline Group is HK$0.1600 (as of Aug 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.08.
What is the quality score of 1528?
Red Star Macalline Group has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Red Star Macalline Group (1528)?
Red Star Macalline Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1528?
The net profit margin of Red Star Macalline Group is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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