Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd HK$2.13, price HK$0.85, upside +150.6%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2178 – HK$0.9100 · fair‑value band HK$1.66 – HK$2.71 · the HK$0.8500 price screens below the HK$2.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zhong Ao Home Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property developers and property owners in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Property Management, Cleaning and Greening, and Other business segments.
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Zhong Ao Home Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property developers and property owners in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Property Management, Cleaning and Greening, and Other business segments. It offers property management services and ancillary services, such as cleaning, gardening, property facilities repair and maintenance, and butler services to the residential and non-residential properties, and commercial and government buildings; and indoor and outdoor environmental cleaning, greening, and maintenance services. The company also provides shuttle bus, security guard, and maintenance; landscaping design and construction services; administrative and support services; canteen operations and catering services; and engineering services, including elevators and installation services, as well as sells engineering spare parts. In addition, it offers security services; real estate consulting and agency services; and sales assistance services. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Foshan, the People's Republic of China. Zhong Ao Home Group Limited is a subsidiary of Qichang International Limited.
Stock analysis
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) currently trades at HK$0.8500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.13, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$3.25 per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$0.8500 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2500, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.66 (bear) to HK$2.71 (bull), the price of HK$0.8500 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 98.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$726M (≈ $92.6M) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 151%, 1538 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.66Fair Value HK$2.13Bull HK$2.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0279 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+151% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1538
Frequently asked questions
Is Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.13 versus a price of HK$0.8500, about +151% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1538?
Our model-based fair value for Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is HK$2.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.8500.
What is the quality score of 1538?
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.66, optimistic scenario HK$2.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.13, about +151% upside versus a price of HK$0.8500 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.66, optimistic scenario HK$2.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1538 use?
Our models discount Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.53 %: that much free cash flow Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd it is HK$2.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.8500. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1538 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.8500, fair value HK$2.13, a gap of about +151% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1538?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.8500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.13). For Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd the two are HK$1.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd worth?
The market values Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd at about HK$726M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.8500; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1538?
Our models span a range for Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.66, base HK$2.13, optimistic HK$2.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.8500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1538?
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1538 from its 52-week high?
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd trades at HK$0.8500, about 7% below its 52-week high of HK$0.9100 and 125% above the low of HK$0.3783 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.8500, calculated fair value HK$2.13 (+151%), Quality Score 66/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1538 calculated?
We run Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd currently trades 151 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.8500. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.13, about +151% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) come from?
Earnings per share at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd grew +5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.3 %, EBIT margin −10.3 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The market capitalisation of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is HK$726M (≈ $92.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Earnings per share at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The dividend yield of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is 2.6% (payout 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The net margin of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
The operating margin of Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Revenue at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538)?
Earnings per share at Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd are growing +18.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd (1538) hold?
Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 584M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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