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Zhong Ao Home Group (1538) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$709M

ZA Zhong Ao Home Group 1538 · HK
PriceHK$0.7300
Fair ValueHK$1.85
Upside+153.4%
Quality66/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 5.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.72% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.37 – HK$2.30 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$2.03 to HK$1.85 (−8.9%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price −13.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 153% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.9100 HK$0.2178 Fair Value HK$1.85 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2178 – HK$0.9100 · fair‑value band HK$1.37 – HK$2.30 · the HK$0.7300 price screens below the HK$1.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhong Ao Home Group (1538) currently trades at HK$0.7300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.85, implying the stock looks roughly 153.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhong Ao Home Group generated revenue of HK$1.8B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$584M. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.37 (bear case) to HK$2.30 (bull case); at HK$0.7300, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at 153%, 1538 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.08 HK$2.78 HK$3.74 80
Residual Income HK$1.04 HK$1.11 HK$1.21 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.30 HK$3.38 HK$4.70 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.09 HK$2.85 HK$3.95 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.30 HK$3.39 HK$4.84 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.93 HK$4.63 HK$6.71 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.15 HK$3.09 HK$4.45 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.57 HK$3.90 HK$5.82 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1700 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4300 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1700 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3300 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$1.46 HK$1.95 HK$2.44 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.46 HK$1.95 HK$2.44 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.92 HK$4.99 HK$6.05 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.75 HK$4.76 HK$5.76 54
EV/Revenue HK$2.50 HK$3.25 HK$4.00 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6500 HK$0.8800 HK$1.31 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.08 HK$2.78 HK$3.74 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.30 HK$3.38 HK$4.70 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.04 HK$1.11 HK$1.21 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.39) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.1%
Net margin 5.3%
Return on equity 9.9%
Free cash flow HK$115M FY2025
P/E ratio 6.4
More key figures
Operating margin 9.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600
Dividend yield 2.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +18.8%
Net cash HK$584M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhong Ao Home Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property developers and property owners in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Property Management, Cleaning and Greening, and Other business segments.

Full company description

Zhong Ao Home Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services to property developers and property owners in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Property Management, Cleaning and Greening, and Other business segments. It offers property management services and ancillary services, such as cleaning, gardening, property facilities repair and maintenance, and butler services to the residential and non-residential properties, and commercial and government buildings; and indoor and outdoor environmental cleaning, greening, and maintenance services. The company also provides shuttle bus, security guard, and maintenance; landscaping design and construction services; administrative and support services; canteen operations and catering services; and engineering services, including elevators and installation services, as well as sells engineering spare parts. In addition, it offers security services; real estate consulting and agency services; and sales assistance services. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Foshan, the People's Republic of China. Zhong Ao Home Group Limited is a subsidiary of Qichang International Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhong Ao Home Group reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$1.9B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$98.2M in FY2025, compounding −2.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.8B
Latest YoY
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.9%
Revenue −0.4%/yr
FY21 HK$1.9B
FY22 HK$1.7B
FY23 HK$1.7B
FY24 HK$1.8B
FY25 HK$1.8B
Net income −2.0%/yr
FY21 HK$106M
FY22 HK$76.9M
FY23 HK$80.1M
FY24 HK$88.9M
FY25 HK$98.2M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.3 pp

of which total revenue +17.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.0 pp

EBIT margin −10.3 pp
Tax rate +1.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhong Ao Home Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1538

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 520 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +153% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Below median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.63× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 37
FUTURE 31 · sector 10
PAST 40 · sector 16
HEALTH 100 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 54 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

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PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI 20,975 IDR 19,160 IDR -9%
PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK 3,530 IDR 3,464 IDR -2%
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA 2,495 ARS 3,998 ARS +60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhong Ao Home Group (1538) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.85 versus a price of HK$0.7300, about +153% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1538?
Our model-based fair value for Zhong Ao Home Group is HK$1.85 (as of Aug 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.7300.
What is the quality score of 1538?
Zhong Ao Home Group has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhong Ao Home Group (1538)?
Zhong Ao Home Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1538?
The net profit margin of Zhong Ao Home Group is about 5.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhong Ao Home Group pay a dividend?
Zhong Ao Home Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.72% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 5, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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