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Beijing Urban Construction (1599) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $174M) · ISIN CNE100001SV1

What is Beijing Urban Construction really worth?

BU Beijing Urban Construction 1599 · HK
PriceHK$1.03
Fair ValueHK$5.44
Upside+428.2%
Quality48/100

Below-average quality, trading 81% below our fair value of HK$5.44.

As of Aug 22, 2026, the fair value of Beijing Urban Construction is HK$5.44 per share against a price of HK$1.03, so the fair value sits 428% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +0.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.1% net margin
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range HK$4.58 – HK$6.51

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$5.43 to HK$5.44 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.94 HK$0.9800 Fair Value HK$5.44 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9800 – HK$1.94 · fair‑value band HK$4.58 – HK$6.51 · the HK$1.03 price screens below the HK$5.44 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Beijing Urban Construction (1599) currently trades at HK$1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.44, implying the stock looks roughly 81.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$6.46 per share, and 23 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$1.03 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$0.6100, and 2 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing Urban Construction generated revenue of HK$7.5B at a net margin of 7.1%. Revenue declined 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at HK$3.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$4.58 (bear case) to HK$6.51 (bull case); at HK$1.03, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 428%, 1599 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1092 per share. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings HK$3.02 HK$4.56 HK$6.44 76
Residual Income HK$4.46 HK$4.58 HK$4.48 76
EPV HK$1.60 HK$2.03 HK$2.40 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.0700 HK$0.6200 HK$1.30 72
Owner Earnings HK$3.02 HK$4.56 HK$6.44 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.43 HK$3.26 HK$5.52 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.32 HK$4.83 HK$7.63 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.14 HK$4.50 HK$6.85 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7300 HK$2.15 HK$3.91 63
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.34 HK$3.11 HK$5.30 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.23 HK$2.91 HK$4.79 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.58 HK$5.75 HK$7.35 65
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.9300 HK$1.33 HK$1.72 57
EPV HK$1.60 HK$2.03 HK$2.40 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.94 HK$2.87 HK$3.75 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.94 HK$2.66 HK$3.37 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.99 HK$7.98 HK$9.98 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.85 HK$6.46 HK$8.08 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.85 HK$6.46 HK$8.08 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.42 HK$6.42 HK$8.42 65
EV/EBITDA HK$4.76 HK$6.88 HK$9.00 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.70 HK$4.53 HK$6.37 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.94 HK$3.94 HK$5.88 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.1000 HK$0.6100 HK$1.20 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.43 HK$3.26 HK$5.18 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.46 HK$4.58 HK$4.48 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.60 HK$2.03 HK$2.40 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.46 HK$6.37 HK$8.29 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$6.46) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.6100). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 2.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.16 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.3
Net margin 6.8% FY2025
Return on equity 6.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 7.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$7.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −2.3% 3y avg −10.3%
EPS growth (YoY) −2.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$257M FY2025
Net debt HK$3.8B FY2025 · ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co., Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various professional services for urban construction in China and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Design, Survey, and Consultancy; and Construction Contracting.

Full company description

Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co., Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various professional services for urban construction in China and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Design, Survey, and Consultancy; and Construction Contracting. It offers designing, surveying and mapping, monitoring, and consulting services for engineering of urban rail transit, municipal management, industrial and civil construction, and municipal engineering projects; and construction contracting services for urban rail transit and the service concession arrangements under the build-operate-transfer arrangements. The company provides engineering consulting, monitoring, and testing services; rail transit engineering consulting services; architectural design services; technology development and consulting services; advisory services; construction design services; and investment management services. In addition, it is involved in property management activities; and construction project investment, construction, and operation maintenance activities, as well as railway operation management activities. The company was formerly known as Beijing Urban Construction Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co., Limited in October 2013. Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co., Limited was founded in 1958 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Beijing Urban Construction reported revenue of 7.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.4%/yr. Reported net income was 515M CNY in FY2025, compounding −13.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$7.5B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.8% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+9.8%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −8.2% vs 10Y 1.5%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7.5% (2018) → 8.1% (2023) · steady
Worst earnings drop46% (2024) · in HKD
Revenue −7.4%/yr
FY21 10.3B CNY
FY22 10.4B CNY
FY23 10.4B CNY
FY24 8.7B CNY
FY25 7.5B CNY
Net income −13.5%/yr
FY21 921M CNY
FY22 959M CNY
FY23 873M CNY
FY24 517M CNY
FY25 515M CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.4 %

of which total revenue +8.8 % · buybacks/dilution −1.3 %

EBIT margin −2.4 %
Tax rate +0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Beijing Urban Construction · Fair Value
HK$5.44 +81%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing Urban Construction Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1599.HK

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 817 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 24.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.60× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.17× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 17
FUTURE0 · sector 12
PAST26 · sector 26
HEALTH70 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Beijing Urban Construction (1599) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.44 versus a price of HK$1.03, about +428% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1599?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Urban Construction is HK$5.44 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.03.
What is the quality score of 1599?
Beijing Urban Construction has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing Urban Construction (1599)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.44 (as of Aug 22, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.58, optimistic scenario HK$6.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing Urban Construction stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.44, about +428% upside versus a price of HK$1.03 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.58, optimistic scenario HK$6.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing Urban Construction (1599)?
Beijing Urban Construction reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$7.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1599?
The net profit margin of Beijing Urban Construction is about 7.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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