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Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$27.7B (≈ $3.5B) · ISIN CNE100000FF3

What is Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd really worth?

MC Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd 1618 · HK
PriceHK$1.36
Fair ValueHK$1.94
Upside+43.2%
Quality28/100

Below-average quality, trading 30% below our fair value of HK$1.94.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is HK$1.94 per share against a price of HK$1.36, so the fair value sits 43% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.3% net margin
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range HK$1.23 – HK$2.62

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from HK$1.96 to HK$1.94 (−1.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −8.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$1.23 to HK$2.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.05 HK$1.09 Fair Value HK$1.94 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.09 – HK$3.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.23 – HK$2.62 · the HK$1.36 price screens below the HK$1.94 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618) currently trades at HK$1.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.94, implying the stock looks roughly 30.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$11.16 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$1.36 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.5500, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd generated revenue of HK$405B at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$11.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.23 (bear case) to HK$2.62 (bull case); at HK$1.36, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 43%, 1618 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$6.93 HK$10.30 HK$15.70 77
Growth DCF HK$6.97 HK$10.27 HK$15.53 75
EPV HK$7.65 HK$8.64 HK$9.51 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$6.93 HK$10.30 HK$15.70 77
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.80 HK$12.14 HK$17.83 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.10 HK$14.65 HK$21.33 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.06 HK$4.88 HK$5.72 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$7.23 HK$11.16 HK$16.77 64
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$8.28 HK$12.94 HK$19.53 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$5.02 HK$6.03 HK$7.22 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.4400 HK$1.61 HK$2.17 62
Lynch FV HK$0.3800 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7100 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3800 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7100 55
EPV HK$7.65 HK$8.64 HK$9.51 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.93 HK$6.10 HK$9.67 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.93 HK$5.14 HK$6.40 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.02 HK$1.36 HK$1.70 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.8200 HK$1.10 HK$1.37 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.8200 HK$1.10 HK$1.37 55
EV/EBIT HK$11.22 HK$14.40 HK$17.58 66
EV/EBITDA HK$11.15 HK$14.31 HK$17.47 67
EV/Revenue HK$8.49 HK$11.41 HK$14.33 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.81 HK$5.10 HK$7.61 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$6.97 HK$10.27 HK$15.53 75
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.80 HK$12.07 HK$17.17 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.21 HK$4.90 HK$3.53 74
ROIC Compounder HK$7.66 HK$9.45 HK$11.95 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.7200 HK$1.03 HK$1.34 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$11.16) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.5500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.07 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0643
Net margin 0.3% FY2025
Return on equity 4.3% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.3% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$405B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −24.6% 3y avg −8.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$9.0B FY2025
Net cash HK$11.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in metallurgical construction and operation in China and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering Contracting and Specialized Business.

Full company description

Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in metallurgical construction and operation in China and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering Contracting and Specialized Business. It is involved in metallurgical construction, building construction, and municipal infrastructure projects, as well as engineering services, provision of materials and metallurgical equipment, energy and environmental protection, and digital intelligence applications. It also engages in survey, design, scientific research, and engineering general contracting; maintenance and inspection cooperation; pipeline corridor technology development; engineering consulting; investment management; water resources management; resource development; and trading activities. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd reported revenue of 455B CNY in FY2025 versus 501B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −41.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$455B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−65.0% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−65.0%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −65.0% vs 10Y −38.0%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3.4% (2018) → 1.6% (2024) · falling
Worst earnings drop229% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD
Revenue −2.3%/yr
FY21 501B CNY
FY22 593B CNY
FY23 634B CNY
FY24 552B CNY
FY25 455B CNY
Net income −41.9%/yr
FY21 11.6B CNY
FY22 10.3B CNY
FY23 8.7B CNY
FY24 6.7B CNY
FY25 1.3B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −22.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share −15.8 %

of which total revenue +10.8 % · buybacks/dilution −24.0 %

EBIT margin −2.0 %
Tax rate +0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1618.HK

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 817 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −35% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth −25% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 23.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 17
FUTURE0 · sector 12
PAST17 · sector 26
HEALTH86 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

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Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,072 ₹2,196 −46%
Ferrovial N.V FER €57.28 €19.17 −67%
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €426.00 €203.87 −52%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 373,000 KRW 261,411 KRW −30%
EMCOR Group EME $754.16 $549.47 −27%
MasTec, Inc MTZ $241.00 $100.00 −59%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.94 versus a price of HK$1.36, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1618?
Our model-based fair value for Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is HK$1.94 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.36.
What is the quality score of 1618?
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.94 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.23, optimistic scenario HK$2.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.94, about +43% upside versus a price of HK$1.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.23, optimistic scenario HK$2.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618)?
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$405B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1618?
The net profit margin of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is about 0.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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