Vico International Holdings (1621) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Vico International Holdings HK$0.22, price HK$0.25, upside -11.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0570 – HK$0.2500 · fair‑value band HK$0.1800 – HK$0.2800 · the HK$0.2490 price screens above the HK$0.2200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Vico International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the distribution of lubricants and petrochemicals in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Dubai, Thailand, Singapore, and India.
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Vico International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the distribution of lubricants and petrochemicals in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Dubai, Thailand, Singapore, and India. The company offers diesel; lubricant oils, including self-branded lubricant and third-party branded lubricant oils; and other petrochemicals, such as bitumen, as well as kerosene. It is also involved in the provision of fleet card and transportation services; and property holding activities. The company was formerly known as Rico International Holdings Limited and changed its name to Vico International Holdings Limited in May 2017. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Cheung Sha Wan, Hong Kong. Vico International Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Max Fortune Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Vico International Holdings (1621) currently trades at HK$0.2490, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2200, 11.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3300 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$0.2490 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1700, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1800 (bear) to HK$0.2800 (bull), the price of HK$0.2490 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vico International Holdings reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2026 versus HK$1.4B in FY2022, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$16.0M in FY2026, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$249M (≈ $31.7M) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 183% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −12%, 1621 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1800Fair Value HK$0.2200Bull HK$0.2800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0050 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.0% vs −2.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.6% a year for the price.
Compare Vico International Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.7% · Below median
Return on assets4.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vico International Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1621
Frequently asked questions
Is Vico International Holdings (1621) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2200 versus a price of HK$0.2490, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1621?
Our model-based fair value for Vico International Holdings is HK$0.2200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2490.
What is the quality score of 1621?
Vico International Holdings has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1800, optimistic scenario HK$0.2800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vico International Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2200, about −12% upside versus a price of HK$0.2490 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1800, optimistic scenario HK$0.2800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Vico International Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vico International Holdings (1621)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vico International Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1621 use?
Our models discount Vico International Holdings at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vico International Holdings that is -9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vico International Holdings (1621) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vico International Holdings grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies -9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vico International Holdings (1621) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vico International Holdings (-9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.18 %: that much free cash flow Vico International Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vico International Holdings it is HK$0.2200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2490. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vico International Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1621 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2490, fair value HK$0.2200, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1621?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2490); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2200). For Vico International Holdings the two are HK$0.0290 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vico International Holdings worth?
The market values Vico International Holdings at about HK$249M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2490; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1621?
Our models span a range for Vico International Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.1800, base HK$0.2200, optimistic HK$0.2800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2490). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1621?
Vico International Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vico International Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1621 from its 52-week high?
Vico International Holdings trades at HK$0.2490, at its 52-week high of HK$0.2500 and 183% above the low of HK$0.0880 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vico International Holdings?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vico International Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2490, calculated fair value HK$0.2200 (−12%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1621 calculated?
We run Vico International Holdings through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Vico International Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2490. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2200, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vico International Holdings right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Vico International Holdings (1621) come from?
Earnings per share at Vico International Holdings grew −1.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.6 %, EBIT margin −9.2 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vico International Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The market capitalisation of Vico International Holdings is HK$249M (≈ $31.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vico International Holdings is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Earnings per share at Vico International Holdings are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The net margin of Vico International Holdings is 1.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vico International Holdings is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vico International Holdings is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
The operating margin of Vico International Holdings is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Revenue at Vico International Holdings is growing −17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Earnings per share at Vico International Holdings are growing +83.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vico International Holdings (1621) hold?
Vico International Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$13.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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