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Vico International Holdings (1621) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$182M

VI Vico International Holdings 1621 · HK
PriceHK$0.1930
Fair ValueHK$0.2200
Upside+14.0%
Quality63/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1700 – HK$0.2800 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +11.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 14% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • Our model range runs from HK$0.1700 (bear) to HK$0.2800 (bull), base HK$0.2200. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.2140 HK$0.0570 Fair Value HK$0.2200 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0570 – HK$0.2140 · fair‑value band HK$0.1700 – HK$0.2800 · the HK$0.1930 price screens below the HK$0.2200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Vico International Holdings (1621) currently trades at HK$0.1930, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2200, implying the stock looks roughly 14.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Vico International Holdings generated revenue of HK$1.3B at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue declined 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$13.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1700 (bear case) to HK$0.2800 (bull case); at HK$0.1930, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 133% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at 14%, 1621 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.4800 HK$0.5700 80
Residual Income HK$0.1800 HK$0.1800 HK$0.1600 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2800 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4600 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.4800 HK$0.5900 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.2300 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3400 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2800 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4500 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2600 HK$0.3200 HK$0.3800 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.2800 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4200 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.3200 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4700 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3200 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4300 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.3300 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4500 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1100 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 54
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0700 46
EPV HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 HK$0.1800 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.1700 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2800 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.2000 HK$0.2700 HK$0.3400 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.2000 HK$0.2700 HK$0.3400 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.1800 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2700 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.1700 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.2100 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3500 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1200 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.4800 HK$0.5700 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2800 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4600 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1800 HK$0.1800 HK$0.1600 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 HK$0.1800 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$0.3700) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -17.1%
Net margin 1.2%
Return on equity 6.7%
Free cash flow HK$43.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.1 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 1.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) +83.4%
Net cash HK$13.2M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Vico International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the distribution of lubricants and petrochemicals in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Dubai, Thailand, Singapore, and India.

Full company description

Vico International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the distribution of lubricants and petrochemicals in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Dubai, Thailand, Singapore, and India. The company offers diesel; lubricant oils, including self-branded lubricant and third-party branded lubricant oils; and other petrochemicals, such as bitumen, as well as kerosene. It is also involved in the provision of fleet card and transportation services; and property holding activities. The company was formerly known as Rico International Holdings Limited and changed its name to Vico International Holdings Limited in May 2017. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Cheung Sha Wan, Hong Kong. Vico International Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Max Fortune Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Vico International Holdings reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2026 versus HK$1.4B in FY2022, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$16.0M in FY2026, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$1.3B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.1%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Revenue −1.2%/yr
FY22 HK$1.4B
FY23 HK$1.0B
FY24 HK$1.6B
FY25 HK$1.5B
FY26 HK$1.3B
Net income +15.0%/yr
FY22 HK$9.2M
FY23 HK$8.8M
FY24 HK$16.9M
FY25 HK$12.3M
FY26 HK$16.0M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −1.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.6 pp

of which total revenue +7.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −9.2 pp
Tax rate −0.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Vico International Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.2200 +14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vico International Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1621

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +14% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -17% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.73× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 52 · sector 15
FUTURE 0 · sector 15
PAST 27 · sector 33
HEALTH 100 · sector 81
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 68

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Neste Oyj NESTE €29.61 €3.83 -87%
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Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹317.00 ₹846.81 +167%
SK Innovation Co 096770 122,400 KRW 53,541 KRW -56%
S-Oil Corporation 010950 140,900 KRW 19,441 KRW -86%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Vico International Holdings (1621) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2200 versus a price of HK$0.1930, about +14% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1621?
Our model-based fair value for Vico International Holdings is HK$0.2200 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.1930.
What is the quality score of 1621?
Vico International Holdings has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Vico International Holdings (1621)?
Vico International Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1621?
The net profit margin of Vico International Holdings is about 1.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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