Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd stock HK$0.56, price HK$0.19, upside +194.7%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1080 – HK$4.31 · fair‑value band HK$0.4700 – HK$0.6900 · the HK$0.1900 price screens below the HK$0.5600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Champion Alliance International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the trading of household paper and hygiene products in Mainland China. The company operates through the Property Leasing, and Household Paper and Hygiene Products segments.
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It leases factory, equipment, and the land for the new energy business operated by an independent third party; and manufactures hygiene products. The company was formerly known as Mengke Holdings Limited and changed its name to Champion Alliance International Holdings Limited in January 2019.
Champion Alliance International Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Dongying, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629) currently trades at HK$0.1900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5600, implying the stock looks roughly 66.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5700 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.1900 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1200, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.4700 (bear) to HK$0.6900 (bull), the price of HK$0.1900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 150M CNY in FY2025 versus 492M CNY in FY2021, a compound −25.7%/yr. Reported net income was −29.4M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$104M (≈ $13.2M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.93 · Net margin −19.5% · Return on equity −9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin −6.8% · Revenue (TTM) 121M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −20.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 195%, 1629 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.4700Fair Value HK$0.5600BullHK$0.6900
Price HK$0.1900 · Upside +194.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2019) → −18.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Compare Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+194.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−6.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−21.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−6.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−20.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1629
Frequently asked questions
Is Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5600 versus a price of HK$0.1900, about +195% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1629?
Our model-based fair value for Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is HK$0.5600 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1900.
What is the quality score of 1629?
Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5600 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4700, optimistic scenario HK$0.6900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.5600, about +195% upside versus a price of HK$0.1900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4700, optimistic scenario HK$0.6900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 121M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -25.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1629 use?
Our models discount Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd grew -25.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.07 %: that much free cash flow Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.5600 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1900. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 1629 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1900, fair value HK$0.5600, a gap of about +195% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1629?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5600). For Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.3700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd at about HK$104M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1629?
Our models span a range for Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4700, base HK$0.5600, optimistic HK$0.6900 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price HK$0.1900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
Balance-sheet figures for Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −9.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1629 from its 52-week high?
Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1900, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2100 and 40% above the low of HK$0.1360 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price HK$0.1900, calculated fair value HK$0.5600 (+195%), Quality Score 55/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1629 calculated?
We run Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd currently trades 66 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was HK$0.1900. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5600, about +195% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The market capitalisation of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is HK$104M (≈ $13.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is 0.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The net margin of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is −19.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is −9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
The operating margin of Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
Revenue at Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd is growing −20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629)?
Earnings per share at Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd are growing −70.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd (1629) hold?
Champion Alliance International Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 117M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026