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Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation (1651) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$26.9B

PT Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation 1651 · HK
PriceHK$55.10
Fair ValueHK$55.75
Upside+1.2%
Quality85/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 21.1% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Wide moat 95/100
Evidence: High Range HK$40.40 – HK$80.55 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −17.9% over the past month.

A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$40.40 to HK$80.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$72.70 HK$5.09 Fair Value HK$55.75 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.09 – HK$72.70 · fair‑value band HK$40.40 – HK$80.55 · the HK$55.10 price screens below the HK$55.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation (1651) currently trades at HK$55.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$55.75, implying the stock looks roughly 1.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation generated revenue of HK$5.2B at a net margin of 21.1%. Revenue grew 17.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$40.40 (bear case) to HK$80.55 (bull case); at HK$55.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 188% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 1%, 1651 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$19.52 HK$26.58 HK$176.64 76
Growth DCF HK$40.53 HK$72.25 HK$128.91 72
Gordon GGM HK$8.87 HK$18.44 HK$29.25 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$41.33 HK$75.27 HK$145.39 38
Owner Earnings HK$44.05 HK$82.97 HK$155.71 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$27.41 HK$44.08 HK$66.89 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.93 HK$73.46 HK$115.87 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$44.96 HK$82.22 HK$126.86 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$31.02 HK$48.98 HK$77.31 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.81 HK$71.18 HK$120.51 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$43.54 HK$77.80 HK$130.21 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$19.48 HK$107.27 HK$148.85 54
Lynch FV HK$29.88 HK$42.68 HK$55.49 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$29.88 HK$42.68 HK$55.49 46
EPV HK$28.79 HK$32.92 HK$36.53 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.87 HK$18.44 HK$29.25 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.87 HK$15.55 HK$19.35 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$45.12 HK$60.16 HK$75.19 63
P/S Multiple HK$20.35 HK$27.14 HK$33.92 58
P/B Multiple HK$33.10 HK$44.14 HK$55.17 55
EV/EBIT HK$52.89 HK$69.19 HK$85.48 53
EV/EBITDA HK$42.98 HK$55.97 HK$68.96 54
EV/Revenue HK$21.12 HK$28.44 HK$35.77 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.90 HK$6.57 HK$9.81 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$40.53 HK$72.25 HK$128.91 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$27.41 HK$43.75 HK$66.10 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$19.52 HK$26.58 HK$176.64 76
ROIC Compounder HK$31.88 HK$40.39 HK$50.71 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$43.37 HK$61.96 HK$80.55 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$73.46) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.57). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$5.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.7%
Net margin 21.1%
Return on equity 32.4%
Free cash flow HK$992M FY2026
P/E ratio 21.3
More key figures
Operating margin 28.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$2.52
EPS growth (YoY) +38.7%
Net cash HK$1.4B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 85/100

Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 85
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells computer numerical control machine tools primarily in Mainland China.

Full company description

Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells computer numerical control machine tools primarily in Mainland China. The company offers precision turret machines; precision automatic lathes; precision machine centers; precision grinding machines; precision thread and form rolling machines; and other components under the TSUGAMI brand name. Its products are used in various industries, such as automobile parts and components; IT electronic parts, such as mobile phones and communication facilities, industrial automation parts and components, medical instruments, and construction machinery; and AI liquid cooling and humanoid robots. The company also exports its products to Japan, South Korea, Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Pinghu, China. Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of Tsugami Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation reported revenue of HK$5.0B in FY2026 versus HK$4.4B in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.1B in FY2026, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$5.0B
Latest YoY
+17.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.2%
Revenue +3.1%/yr
FY22 HK$4.4B
FY23 HK$4.0B
FY24 HK$3.1B
FY25 HK$4.3B
FY26 HK$5.0B
Net income +12.2%/yr
FY22 HK$667M
FY23 HK$579M
FY24 HK$480M
FY25 HK$782M
FY26 HK$1.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +22.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.3 pp

of which total revenue +10.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.1 pp

EBIT margin +9.9 pp
Tax rate −0.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1651

Peer Group

Tools & Accessories · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Return on assets 20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 7.44× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.19× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 35 · sector 3
FUTURE 89 · sector 14
PAST 100 · sector 28
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 36

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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The Timken Company TKR $139.47 $66.33 -52%
The Toro Company TTC $94.42 $69.71 -26%
SFS Group SFSN CHF 140.00 CHF 118.30 -16%
Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 ¥29.33 ¥35.72 +22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation (1651) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$55.75 versus a price of HK$55.10, about +1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1651?
Our model-based fair value for Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation is HK$55.75 (as of Aug 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$55.10.
What is the quality score of 1651?
Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation (1651)?
Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1651?
The net profit margin of Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation is about 21.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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