The Timken Company (TKR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $9.7B
The Timken Company
TKR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $65.95 to $66.33 (+0.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($102.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($38.14 to $102.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.46 – $145.32 · fair‑value band $38.14 – $102.73 · the $128.65 price screens above the $66.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
The Timken Company (TKR) currently trades at $128.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $66.33, implying the stock looks roughly 48.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Timken Company generated revenue of $4.7B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.14 (bear case) to $102.73 (bull case); at $128.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -48%, TKR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($83.00) versus Dividend Discount ($18.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion.
Full company description
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The Engineered Bearings segment provides various bearing products, including tapered, spherical, and cylindrical roller bearings; plain bearings, metal-polymer bearings, and rod end bearings; radial, angular, and precision ball bearings; thrust and specialty ball bearings; journal bearings; and housed or mounted bearings. This segment serves wind energy, agriculture, construction, food and beverage, metals and mining, automotive and truck, aerospace, rail, and other industries under the Timken, GGB, and Fafnir brands. The Industrial Motion segment offers a portfolio of engineered products, such as industrial drives, automatic lubrication systems, linear motion products and systems, chains, belts, couplings, filtration systems, seals, and industrial clutches and brakes, as well as industrial drivetrain and bearing repairing services. This segment serves a range of industries comprising solar energy, automation, construction, agriculture and turf, passenger rail, marine, aerospace, packaging and logistics, medical, and others under the Philadelphia Gear, Cone Drive, Rollon, Nadella, Groeneveld, BEKA, Diamond, Drives, Timken Belts, Spinea, Des-Case, Lagersmit, Lovejoy, CGI, and PT Tech brands. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Timken Company reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $288M in FY2025, compounding −6.0%/yr from FY2021.
TKR screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Techtronic Industries Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Timken Announces Key Leadership Appointments
- Timken (TKR) Rallies On Momentum, Is The Stock Already Fully Valued?
- Timken to Announce Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 4
- Timken (TKR): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?
Peer Group
Tools & Accessories · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Techtronic Industries Company 0669 | HK$129.60 | HK$81.05 | -37% |
| Snap-on Incorporated SNA | $410.99 | $350.46 | -15% |
| RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC | $595.49 | $184.29 | -69% |
| Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO | $252.58 | $154.80 | -39% |
| Stanley Black & Decker, Inc SWK | $88.22 | $54.24 | -39% |
| AB SKF (publ) SKFB | kr 258.90 | kr 192.57 | -26% |
| The Toro Company TTC | $94.42 | $69.71 | -26% |
| SFS Group SFSN | CHF 140.00 | CHF 118.30 | -16% |
| Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 | ¥29.33 | ¥35.72 | +22% |
| Shareate Tools Ltd 688257 | ¥82.32 | ¥14.01 | -83% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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