E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2066 – HK$1.66 · fair‑value band HK$1.51 – HK$2.35 · the HK$0.6950 price screens below the HK$2.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
E-Commodities Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the processing and trading of coal and other products. It operates through two segments, Trading of Coal and Other Products; and Rendering of Integrated Supply Chain Services.
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E-Commodities Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the processing and trading of coal and other products. It operates through two segments, Trading of Coal and Other Products; and Rendering of Integrated Supply Chain Services. The company also offers supply chain trading and technology services; and constructs, manages, and operates mining equipment, processing factories, and logistics parks, as well as renders mining, consigned processing, and logistics services. It operates in the People's Republic of China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, South Korea, India, Japan, Vietnam, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Winsway Enterprises Holdings Limited and changed its name to E-Commodities Holdings Limited in August 2016. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. E-Commodities Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Famous Speech Limited.
Stock analysis
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733) currently trades at HK$0.6950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.10, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$2.31 per share, and 17 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$0.6950 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.04, and 0 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.51 (bear) to HK$2.35 (bull), the price of HK$0.6950 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$25.2B in FY2025 versus HK$41.2B in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$316M in FY2025, compounding −45.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.8B (≈ $234M) · P/E ratio 5.0 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 202%, 1733 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.51Fair Value HK$2.10Bull HK$2.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0144 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−35.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs −22%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 1%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare E -Commodities Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+168% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−35% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Is E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.10 versus a price of HK$0.6950, about +202% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1733?
Our model-based fair value for E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is HK$2.10 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6950.
What is the quality score of 1733?
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.10 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.51, optimistic scenario HK$2.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the E -Commodities Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.10, about +202% upside versus a price of HK$0.6950 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.51, optimistic scenario HK$2.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$25.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does E -Commodities Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For E -Commodities Holdings Ltd it is HK$2.10 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6950. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is E -Commodities Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 1733 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6950, fair value HK$2.10, a gap of about +202% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1733?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.10). For E -Commodities Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is E -Commodities Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values E -Commodities Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6950; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1733?
Our models span a range for E -Commodities Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.51, base HK$2.10, optimistic HK$2.35 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.6950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1733?
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
Balance-sheet figures for E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1733 from its 52-week high?
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.6950, about 38% below its 52-week high of HK$1.12 and 22% above the low of HK$0.5700 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to E -Commodities Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is E -Commodities Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.6950, calculated fair value HK$2.10 (+202%), Quality Score 48/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1733 calculated?
We run E -Commodities Holdings Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. E -Commodities Holdings Ltd currently trades 202 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$0.6950. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.10, about +202% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with E -Commodities Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.51). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The market capitalisation of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is HK$1.8B (≈ $234M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The price-to-sales ratio of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
Earnings per share at E -Commodities Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The dividend yield of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is 4.3% (payout 60.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The net margin of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The return on equity (ROE) of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is 12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
The operating margin of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
Revenue at E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is growing −34.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733)?
Earnings per share at E -Commodities Holdings Ltd are growing +30.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733) generate?
The free cash flow of E -Commodities Holdings Ltd is −HK$41.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does E -Commodities Holdings Ltd (1733) hold?
E -Commodities Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$1.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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