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Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd (1748) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$774M

XY Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd 1748 · HK
PriceHK$1.76
Fair ValueHK$0.4100
Upside-76.7%
Quality75/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 23.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Wide moat 72/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.2700 – HK$0.5100 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

A strong business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2700 to HK$0.5100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$20.00 HK$1.24 Fair Value HK$0.4100 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.24 – HK$20.00 · fair‑value band HK$0.2700 – HK$0.5100 · the HK$1.76 price screens above the HK$0.4100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd (1748) currently trades at HK$1.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4100, implying the stock looks roughly 76.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$59.1M at a net margin of 23.1%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at HK$37.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2700 (bear case) to HK$0.5100 (bull case); at HK$1.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at -77%, 1748 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.3100 HK$0.5400 HK$0.8900 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1800 HK$0.3300 HK$0.5200 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1700 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2300 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.3100 HK$0.5900 HK$1.02 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.3500 HK$0.6500 HK$1.12 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1800 HK$0.3300 HK$0.5200 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3900 HK$0.7600 HK$1.24 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7400 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2200 HK$0.3700 HK$0.5900 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3500 HK$0.6700 HK$1.16 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.2700 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7700 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1300 HK$0.6600 HK$0.9100 54
Lynch FV HK$0.1800 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3300 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3300 46
EPV HK$0.1700 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2300 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.3000 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5100 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.2000 HK$0.2700 HK$0.3300 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.2500 HK$0.3300 HK$0.4100 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.3500 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6200 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.4700 HK$0.6500 HK$0.8300 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.1100 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2500 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1400 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.3100 HK$0.5400 HK$0.8900 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1800 HK$0.3300 HK$0.5200 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.2100 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2200 61
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1700 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2700 HK$0.3900 HK$0.5100 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.4800) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$59.1M
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.7%
Net margin 23.1%
Return on equity 10.0%
Free cash flow HK$15.0M FY2023
P/E ratio 7.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 42.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +93.1%
Net debt HK$37.4M FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 96
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides asphalt tanker and bulk carrier chartering services in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The company operates through Asphalt Tanker Chartering Services and Bulk Carrier Chartering Services segments.

Full company description

Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides asphalt tanker and bulk carrier chartering services in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The company operates through Asphalt Tanker Chartering Services and Bulk Carrier Chartering Services segments. It operates eight vessels under asphalt tanker time charters and two vessels under asphalt tanker voyage charters or contracts of affreightment. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$58.9M in FY2023 versus HK$49.8M in FY2019, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$8.5M in FY2023.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
HK$58.9M
Latest YoY
−8.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.6%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.7%
Revenue +4.3%/yr
FY19 HK$49.8M
FY20 HK$56.0M
FY21 HK$52.3M
FY22 HK$64.1M
FY23 HK$58.9M
Net income
FY19 −HK$83.0K
FY20 HK$8.6M
FY21 HK$1.7M
FY22 HK$10.9M
FY23 HK$8.5M

1748 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

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Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.4100 −77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1748

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 232 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 23% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.38× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.67× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 6.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 22
FUTURE 4 · sector 20
PAST 40 · sector 27
HEALTH 81 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,810 kr 3,033 -82%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥15.25 ¥49.90 +227%
HMM Co 011200 21,350 KRW 33,795 KRW +58%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹346.60 ₹126.31 -64%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 87.10 TWD 212.79 TWD +144%
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI 3,640 IDR 368.32 IDR -90%
Pan Ocean Co 028670 5,630 KRW 11,840 KRW +110%
Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM 136.33 CLP 146.31 CLP +7%
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII 795.00 IDR 350.80 IDR -56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd (1748) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.4100 versus a price of HK$1.76, about −77% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1748?
Our model-based fair value for Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd is HK$0.4100 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.76.
What is the quality score of 1748?
Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd (1748)?
Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$59.1M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1748?
The net profit margin of Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Ltd is about 23.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 23.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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