KWG Group (1813) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$352M
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$0.1013 to HK$0.0720 (−28.9%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price −1.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0253 to HK$0.2822). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0970 – HK$12.27 · fair‑value band HK$0.0253 – HK$0.2822 · the HK$0.1030 price screens above the HK$0.0720 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
KWG Group (1813) currently trades at HK$0.1030, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0720, implying the stock looks roughly 30.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, KWG Group generated revenue of HK$6.8B at a net margin of -48.4%. Revenue declined 49.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -43.9%. Net debt stands at HK$73.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0253 (bear case) to HK$0.2822 (bull case); at HK$0.1030, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -30%, 1813 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$2.52) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.3300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 1
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
KWG Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment, and hotel operation businesses in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company's property portfolio consists of mid- to high-end residential properties, serviced apartments, villas, office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls.
Full company description
KWG Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment, and hotel operation businesses in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company's property portfolio consists of mid- to high-end residential properties, serviced apartments, villas, office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls. It is also involved in light asset operation, and investment in cultural tourism, and education. The company was formerly known as KWG Property Holding Limited and changed its name to KWG Group Holdings Limited in August 2018. KWG Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
KWG Group reported revenue of HK$6.8B in FY2025 versus HK$23.8B in FY2021, a compound −27.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$3.3B in FY2025.
1813 screens 30% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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