KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of KWG Property Holding Ltd HK$0.17, price HK$0.09, upside +85.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0900 – HK$10.73 · fair‑value band HK$0.0874 – HK$0.2624 · the HK$0.0900 price screens below the HK$0.1665 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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KWG Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment, and hotel operation businesses in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company's property portfolio consists of mid- to high-end residential properties, serviced apartments, villas, office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls.
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KWG Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment, and hotel operation businesses in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company's property portfolio consists of mid- to high-end residential properties, serviced apartments, villas, office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls. It is also involved in light asset operation, and investment in cultural tourism, and education. The company was formerly known as KWG Property Holding Limited and changed its name to KWG Group Holdings Limited in August 2018. KWG Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813) currently trades at HK$0.0900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1665, implying the stock looks roughly 45.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 90/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0874 (bear) to HK$0.2624 (bull), the price of HK$0.0900 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
KWG Property Holding Ltd reported revenue of 6.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 23.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −27.0%/yr. Reported net income was −3.3B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$352M (≈ $44.9M) · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.6000 · Net margin −48.4% · Return on equity −43.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2% · Operating margin −71.2% · Revenue (TTM) 6.8B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 85%, 1813 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0874Fair Value HK$0.1665Bull HK$0.2624
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−38.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22.1% (2020) → −48.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare KWG Property Holding Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+85% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−48% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−71% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−49% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity12.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Is KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1665 versus a price of HK$0.0900, about +85% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1813?
Our model-based fair value for KWG Property Holding Ltd is HK$0.1665 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0900.
What is the quality score of 1813?
KWG Property Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1665 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0874, optimistic scenario HK$0.2624. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KWG Property Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1665, about +85% upside versus a price of HK$0.0900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0874, optimistic scenario HK$0.2624. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
KWG Property Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KWG Property Holding Ltd it is HK$0.1665 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0900. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KWG Property Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1813 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0900, fair value HK$0.1665, a gap of about +85% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1813?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1665). For KWG Property Holding Ltd the two are HK$0.0765 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KWG Property Holding Ltd worth?
The market values KWG Property Holding Ltd at about HK$352M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1665 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1813?
Our models span a range for KWG Property Holding Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0874, base HK$0.1665, optimistic HK$0.2624 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.0900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1813?
The PEG ratio of KWG Property Holding Ltd is 0.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
Balance-sheet figures for KWG Property Holding Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −43.9%, debt of 12.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1813 from its 52-week high?
KWG Property Holding Ltd trades at HK$0.0900, about 68% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2850 and at the low of HK$0.0900 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1665 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KWG Property Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KWG Property Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.0900, calculated fair value HK$0.1665 (+85%), Quality Score 45/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1813 calculated?
We run KWG Property Holding Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1665, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. KWG Property Holding Ltd currently trades 85 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.0900. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1665, about +85% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KWG Property Holding Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0874 to HK$0.2624). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of KWG Property Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
The market capitalisation of KWG Property Holding Ltd is HK$352M (≈ $44.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KWG Property Holding Ltd is 0.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
Earnings per share at KWG Property Holding Ltd are HK$−0.6000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
The net margin of KWG Property Holding Ltd is −48.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KWG Property Holding Ltd is −43.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KWG Property Holding Ltd is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
The operating margin of KWG Property Holding Ltd is −71.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
Revenue at KWG Property Holding Ltd is growing −49.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813)?
Earnings per share at KWG Property Holding Ltd are growing −84.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813) generate?
The free cash flow of KWG Property Holding Ltd is 2.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does KWG Property Holding Ltd (1813) carry?
The net debt of KWG Property Holding Ltd is 73.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 33.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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