CGN Power (1816) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CGN Power stock HK$1.58, price HK$3.45, that is 54.2% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.32 – HK$3.63 · fair‑value band HK$1.34 – HK$1.98 · the HK$3.45 price screens above the HK$1.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 11, 2026.
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CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services.
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As of December 31, 2025, the company manages 28 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 31.838 GW. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.
Stock analysis
CGN Power (1816) currently trades at HK$3.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.58, 54.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$3.51 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$3.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.22, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.34 (bear) to HK$1.98 (bull), the price of HK$3.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
CGN Power reported revenue of 75.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 80.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 9.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$176B (≈ $22.4B) Large · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 3.00 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2150 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 13.3% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −54%, 1816 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$1.34Fair Value HK$1.58BullHK$1.98
Price HK$3.45 · Downside -54.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0952 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.2% vs 1.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 24%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−54.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)20.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)45.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.21× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.00× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.8× · Pricier than median
PEG1.11× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)19· sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CGN Power Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1816
Frequently asked questions
Is CGN Power (1816) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.58 versus a price of HK$3.45, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1816?
Our model-based fair value for CGN Power is HK$1.58 (as of Oct 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.45.
What is the quality score of 1816?
CGN Power has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CGN Power (1816)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.58 (as of Oct 11, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.34, optimistic scenario HK$1.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CGN Power stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.58, about 54% lower versus a price of HK$3.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.34, optimistic scenario HK$1.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CGN Power (1816)?
CGN Power reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 74.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 11, 2026).
Does CGN Power pay a dividend?
CGN Power currently shows a dividend yield of 2.95% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CGN Power (1816)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CGN Power it is HK$1.58 per share (as of Oct 11, 2026), against a price of HK$3.45. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CGN Power stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 1816 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.45, fair value HK$1.58, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1816?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.58). For CGN Power the two are HK$1.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CGN Power worth?
The market values CGN Power at about HK$176B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 11, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.45; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1816?
Our models span a range for CGN Power: cautious scenario HK$1.34, base HK$1.58, optimistic HK$1.98 per share (as of Oct 11, 2026, price HK$3.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1816?
CGN Power trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Oct 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 15.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 1816?
The PEG ratio of CGN Power is 1.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CGN Power (1816)?
Balance-sheet figures for CGN Power (as of Oct 11, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 1.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1816 from its 52-week high?
CGN Power trades at HK$3.45, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$3.63 and 30% above the low of HK$2.65 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CGN Power?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CGN Power stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 11, 2026: price HK$3.45, calculated fair value HK$1.58 (−54%), Quality Score 42/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1816 calculated?
We run CGN Power through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. CGN Power itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CGN Power (1816)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was HK$3.45. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.58, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CGN Power right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of CGN Power (1816) come from?
Earnings per share at CGN Power grew +3.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.4 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CGN Power
How large is the market capitalisation of CGN Power (1816)?
The market capitalisation of CGN Power is HK$176B (≈ $22.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CGN Power (1816)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CGN Power is 3.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CGN Power (1816)?
Earnings per share at CGN Power are HK$0.2150 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CGN Power (1816)?
The dividend yield of CGN Power is 3.0% (payout 47.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CGN Power (1816)?
The net margin of CGN Power is 13.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CGN Power (1816)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CGN Power is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CGN Power (1816)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CGN Power is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CGN Power (1816)?
The operating margin of CGN Power is 45.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CGN Power (1816)?
Revenue at CGN Power is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CGN Power (1816)?
Earnings per share at CGN Power are growing +14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CGN Power (1816) generate?
The free cash flow of CGN Power is −2.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CGN Power (1816) carry?
The net debt of CGN Power is 266B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 11, 2026