China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$2.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.42 to HK$6.28 (−2.2%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −19.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$4.01 to HK$7.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5300 – HK$7.98 · fair‑value band HK$4.01 – HK$7.82 · the HK$5.09 price screens below the HK$6.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) currently trades at HK$5.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.28, implying the stock looks roughly 23.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd generated revenue of HK$401M at a net margin of 40.6%. Revenue grew 12.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$63.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.01 (bear case) to HK$7.82 (bull case); at HK$5.09, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 310% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 23%, 1851 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$6.30) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Gingko Education Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers bachelor's degree and junior college diploma program through Gingko College of Hospitality Management.
Full company description
China Gingko Education Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers bachelor's degree and junior college diploma program through Gingko College of Hospitality Management. It is also involved in the hotel business; provision of vocational training, education consultancy, and finance and asset management services; and operates training school. China Gingko Education Group Company Limited was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd reported revenue of HK$401M in FY2025 versus HK$227M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$163M in FY2025, compounding +43.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 1851: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 875.84 MXN | -9% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $11.87 | $15.60 | +31% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.99 | $41.45 | +12% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹123.90 | ₹14.81 | -88% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $142.06 | $152.01 | +7% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $128.22 | $135.45 | +6% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $78.59 | $139.45 | +77% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $25.64 | $20.98 | -18% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.24 | $40.65 | +30% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $79.98 | $105.48 | +32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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