China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd HK$8.89, price HK$9.10, upside -2.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5300 – HK$9.10 · fair‑value band HK$5.31 – HK$11.32 · the HK$9.10 price screens above the HK$8.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow China Gingko Education Group Company in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether China Gingko Education Group Company is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
China Gingko Education Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers bachelor's degree and junior college diploma program through Gingko College of Hospitality Management.
Show more
China Gingko Education Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers bachelor's degree and junior college diploma program through Gingko College of Hospitality Management. It is also involved in the hotel business; provision of vocational training, education consultancy, and finance and asset management services; and operates training school. China Gingko Education Group Company Limited was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) currently trades at HK$9.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.89, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.3%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$7.36 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$9.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.72, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$5.31 (bear) to HK$11.32 (bull), the price of HK$9.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd reported revenue of 401M CNY in FY2025 versus 227M CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was 163M CNY in FY2025, compounding +43.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.6B (≈ $580M) · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 6.29 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2000 · Net margin 40.6% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% · Operating margin 35.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 515% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −2%, 1851 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.31Fair Value HK$8.89Bull HK$11.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1501 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+38.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.38.0% vs 15.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 42%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.1% a year for the price.
Compare China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−2.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16.0% · Above median
Return on assets6.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)35.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1851
Frequently asked questions
Is China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.89 versus a price of HK$9.10, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1851?
Our model-based fair value for China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is HK$8.89 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.10.
What is the quality score of 1851?
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.89 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.31, optimistic scenario HK$11.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.89, about −2% upside versus a price of HK$9.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$5.31, optimistic scenario HK$11.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 401M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +22.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1851 use?
Our models discount China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd that is +22.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd grew +17.8 % a year. The price currently implies +22.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (+22.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.86 %: that much free cash flow China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd it is HK$8.89 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$9.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1851 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$9.10, fair value HK$8.89, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1851?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$9.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.89). For China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd the two are HK$0.2060 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd worth?
The market values China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd at about HK$4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$9.10; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1851?
Our models span a range for China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd: cautious scenario HK$5.31, base HK$8.89, optimistic HK$11.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$9.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1851?
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 9.7, EV/EBITDA 17.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 16.0%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1851 from its 52-week high?
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd trades at HK$9.10, at its 52-week high of HK$9.10 and 515% above the low of HK$1.48 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$8.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$9.10, calculated fair value HK$8.89 (−2%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1851 calculated?
We run China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$9.10. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.89, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (HK$5.31 to HK$11.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) come from?
Earnings per share at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd grew +17.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.6 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The market capitalisation of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is HK$4.6B (≈ $580M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is 6.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
Earnings per share at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd are HK$0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The net margin of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is 40.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
The operating margin of China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is 35.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
Revenue at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851)?
Earnings per share at China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd are growing +33.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd (1851) hold?
China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd holds more cash than debt, 63.0M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts China Gingko Education Group Company Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
