Cheng Loong Corp (1904) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Cheng Loong Corp TWD 16.26, price TWD 24.90, upside -34.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Cheng Loong Corporation manufactures and sells paper products in Taiwan, Mainland China, and Southeast Asia.
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Cheng Loong Corporation manufactures and sells paper products in Taiwan, Mainland China, and Southeast Asia. The company offers paperboard products, including containerboard, linerboard, coated duplex board, corrugating medium, white top linerboard, and coreboard; and corrugated containers, such as corrugated boards, display and waterproof container, and paper pallets. It provides household paper products, such as tissue papers, facial tissues, paper towels, paper hand towels, and diapers, as well as personal and household cleaning products. In addition, the company offers office paper products, which include credit card receipts, 2-copy and 3-copy receipts, computer forms, paper voucher, paper invoice, medication bags, labels/tags, and flexible packaging, etc. Further, it provides green paper art products for children's educational toys, pet toys, and cultural and creative products, as well as builds residential and commercial premises for rent and sale. Additionally, the company manufactures and installs electronic components, glass products, and optical and precision instruments; manufactures and sells corrugated cardboard, kraft linerboard, and display boxes; and paper boxes, trays, containers, core papers, foams, anti-static bubble bags, plastic buffer packaging materials. It involves in packaging decoration printing; trading of color printing accessories and base paper; manufacturing packaging for electronic products, tissue, carton, wrapping paper, pallets for export, separator, lithographic, flexographic, and other paper products; and water and sewage treatment, as well as provides maintenance and technical repairment services. Cheng Loong Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Cheng Loong Corp (1904) currently trades at 24.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.26 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 53.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 17.72 TWD per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the 24.90 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 2.17 TWD, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.20 TWD (bear) to 20.33 TWD (bull), the price of 24.90 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Cheng Loong Corp reported revenue of 43.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 45.0B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 823M TWD in FY2025, compounding −32.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.9B TWD (≈ $844M) · P/E ratio 33.6 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) 0.7400 TWD · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −35%, 1904 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.20 TWDFair Value 16.26 TWDBull 20.33 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2121 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−23.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−35% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.62× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.0× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 7
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Cheng Loong Corp (1904) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.26 TWD versus a price of 24.90 TWD, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1904?
Our model-based fair value for Cheng Loong Corp is 16.26 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.90 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1904?
Cheng Loong Corp has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.26 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.20 TWD, optimistic scenario 20.33 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cheng Loong Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.26 TWD, about −35% upside versus a price of 24.90 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.20 TWD, optimistic scenario 20.33 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Cheng Loong Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Cheng Loong Corp pay a dividend?
Cheng Loong Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cheng Loong Corp it is 16.26 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 24.90 TWD. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cheng Loong Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 1904 trades above its calculated fair value: price 24.90 TWD, fair value 16.26 TWD, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1904?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.90 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.26 TWD). For Cheng Loong Corp the two are 8.64 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cheng Loong Corp worth?
The market values Cheng Loong Corp at about 26.9B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 24.90 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.26 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1904?
Our models span a range for Cheng Loong Corp: cautious scenario 12.20 TWD, base 16.26 TWD, optimistic 20.33 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 24.90 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1904?
Cheng Loong Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.26 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cheng Loong Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1904 from its 52-week high?
Cheng Loong Corp trades at 24.90 TWD, about 3% below its 52-week high of 25.75 TWD and 48% above the low of 16.80 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.26 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cheng Loong Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cheng Loong Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 24.90 TWD, calculated fair value 16.26 TWD (−35%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1904 calculated?
We run Cheng Loong Corp through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.26 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cheng Loong Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 24.90 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.26 TWD, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cheng Loong Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.33 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Cheng Loong Corp (1904) come from?
Earnings per share at Cheng Loong Corp grew −3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cheng Loong Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The market capitalisation of Cheng Loong Corp is 26.9B TWD (≈ $844M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cheng Loong Corp is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Earnings per share at Cheng Loong Corp are 0.7400 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The dividend yield of Cheng Loong Corp is 1.8% (payout 60.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The net margin of Cheng Loong Corp is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cheng Loong Corp is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cheng Loong Corp is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The operating margin of Cheng Loong Corp is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Revenue at Cheng Loong Corp is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Earnings per share at Cheng Loong Corp are growing +600% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cheng Loong Corp (1904) generate?
The free cash flow of Cheng Loong Corp is −1.0B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cheng Loong Corp (1904) carry?
The net debt of Cheng Loong Corp is 24.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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