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Cheng Loong Corp (1904) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cheng Loong Corp stock TWD 13.82, price TWD 23.50, that is 41.2% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials TW · ISIN TW0001904001

CL Cheng Loong Corp logo Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Cheng Loong Corp

1904 · TW
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 41% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +1.4 %/yr in TWD)
Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
1.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Fair value 13.82 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−41.2%)
Quality 38/100
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 34/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

42.42 TWD 15.50 TWD Fair Value 13.82 TWD Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 15.50 TWD – 42.42 TWD · fair‑value band 10.37 TWD – 17.28 TWD · the 23.50 TWD price screens above the 13.82 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Cheng Loong Corporation manufactures and sells paper products in Taiwan, Mainland China, and Southeast Asia.

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The company offers paperboard products, including containerboard, linerboard, coated duplex board, corrugating medium, white top linerboard, and coreboard; and corrugated containers, such as corrugated boards, display and waterproof container, and paper pallets.

It provides household paper products, such as tissue papers, facial tissues, paper towels, paper hand towels, and diapers, as well as personal and household cleaning products.

In addition, the company offers office paper products, which include credit card receipts, 2-copy and 3-copy receipts, computer forms, paper voucher, paper invoice, medication bags, labels/tags, and flexible packaging, etc.

Further, it provides green paper art products for children's educational toys, pet toys, and cultural and creative products, as well as builds residential and commercial premises for rent and sale.

Additionally, the company manufactures and installs electronic components, glass products, and optical and precision instruments; manufactures and sells corrugated cardboard, kraft linerboard, and display boxes; and paper boxes, trays, containers, core papers, foams, anti-static bubble bags, plastic buffer packaging materials.

It involves in packaging decoration printing; trading of color printing accessories and base paper; manufacturing packaging for electronic products, tissue, carton, wrapping paper, pallets for export, separator, lithographic, flexographic, and other paper products; and water and sewage treatment, as well as provides maintenance and technical repairment services.

Cheng Loong Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in New Taipei City, Taiwan.

Stock analysis

Cheng Loong Corp (1904) currently trades at 23.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.82 TWD, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 16.83 TWD per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the 23.50 TWD price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 4.01 TWD, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 10.37 TWD (bear) to 17.28 TWD (bull), the price of 23.50 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2011: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2011.

Cheng Loong Corp reported revenue of 43.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 45.0B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 823M TWD in FY2025, compounding −32.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 28.7B TWD (≈ $876M) Small · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) 2.16 TWD · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −41%, 1904 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 10.37 TWD Fair Value 13.82 TWD Bull 17.28 TWD
Price 23.50 TWD · Downside -41.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.46 TWD per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 17.82 TWD 17.90 TWD 18.50 TWD 76
Gordon GGM 3.69 TWD 4.27 TWD 4.90 TWD 69
EPV n/a 0.1800 TWD >0.7200 TWD 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5.05 TWD 7.83 TWD 9.36 TWD 67
EPV n/a 0.1800 TWD >0.7200 TWD 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3.69 TWD 4.27 TWD 4.90 TWD 69
DDM Multi-Stage 3.69 TWD 4.68 TWD 5.85 TWD 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 9.47 TWD 12.62 TWD 15.78 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 9.47 TWD 12.62 TWD 15.78 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 18.15 TWD 24.19 TWD 30.24 TWD 55
EV/EBIT n/a 1.35 TWD >5.40 TWD 61
EV/EBITDA 16.55 TWD 29.54 TWD 42.53 TWD 65
EV/Revenue n/a n/a 6.27 TWD 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 12.56 TWD 16.83 TWD 25.12 TWD 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 17.82 TWD 17.90 TWD 18.50 TWD 76
ROIC Compounder n/a 0.1800 TWD >0.7200 TWD 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 6.75 TWD 9.64 TWD 12.53 TWD 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 25
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 39
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 32
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 74
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 72
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 73
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 25
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2011: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2011.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−23.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Per share before 2011divided by the spin-off factor 1.04
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.6% vs −3.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

1904 screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −41.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 5.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 7.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.72× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 10.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.65× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)43 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)64 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)38 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$4.62 HK$7.54 +63% vs 1904
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 6,425 IDR 10,483 IDR +63% vs 1904
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 898.00 CLP 1,243 CLP +38% vs 1904
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥15.86 ¥21.06 +33% vs 1904
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.94 €24.27 +22% vs 1904
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.12 ¥16.93 +20% vs 1904
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €22.46 €21.19 −6% vs 1904
The Navigator Company NVG €3.04 €2.49 −18% vs 1904
Billerud AB BILL kr 88.20 kr 68.44 −22% vs 1904
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.66 $5.24 −46% vs 1904

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Cheng Loong Corp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cheng Loong Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1904

Frequently asked questions

Is Cheng Loong Corp (1904) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.82 TWD versus a price of 23.50 TWD, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1904?
Our model-based fair value for Cheng Loong Corp is 13.82 TWD (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1904?
Cheng Loong Corp has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13.82 TWD (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.37 TWD, optimistic scenario 17.28 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cheng Loong Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13.82 TWD, about 41% lower versus a price of 23.50 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 10.37 TWD, optimistic scenario 17.28 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Cheng Loong Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 44.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Cheng Loong Corp pay a dividend?
Cheng Loong Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cheng Loong Corp (1904) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cheng Loong Corp pays a dividend of 0.45 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 22, 2026. The payout ratio is 20.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cheng Loong Corp it is 13.82 TWD per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 23.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cheng Loong Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 1904 trades above its calculated fair value: price 23.50 TWD, fair value 13.82 TWD, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1904?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13.82 TWD). For Cheng Loong Corp the two are 9.68 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cheng Loong Corp worth?
The market values Cheng Loong Corp at about 28.7B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 23.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 13.82 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1904?
Our models span a range for Cheng Loong Corp: cautious scenario 10.37 TWD, base 13.82 TWD, optimistic 17.28 TWD per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 23.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1904?
Cheng Loong Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13.82 TWD is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.6. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cheng Loong Corp (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1904 from its 52-week high?
Cheng Loong Corp trades at 23.50 TWD, about 9% below its 52-week high of 25.75 TWD and 38% above the low of 17.00 TWD (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13.82 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cheng Loong Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cheng Loong Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 23.50 TWD, calculated fair value 13.82 TWD (−41%), Quality Score 38/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1904 calculated?
We run Cheng Loong Corp through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 13.82 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Cheng Loong Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 23.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 13.82 TWD, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cheng Loong Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (17.28 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Cheng Loong Corp (1904) come from?
Earnings per share at Cheng Loong Corp grew −3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Cheng Loong Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The market capitalisation of Cheng Loong Corp is 28.7B TWD (≈ $876M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cheng Loong Corp is 0.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Earnings per share at Cheng Loong Corp are 2.16 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The dividend yield of Cheng Loong Corp is 1.9% (payout 20.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The net margin of Cheng Loong Corp is 5.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cheng Loong Corp is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cheng Loong Corp is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
The operating margin of Cheng Loong Corp is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Revenue at Cheng Loong Corp is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cheng Loong Corp (1904)?
Earnings per share at Cheng Loong Corp are growing +600% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cheng Loong Corp (1904) generate?
The free cash flow of Cheng Loong Corp is −1.0B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cheng Loong Corp (1904) carry?
The net debt of Cheng Loong Corp is 24.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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