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Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd (1938) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$236M

CK Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd 1938 · HK
PriceHK$0.2160
Fair ValueHK$0.1678
Upside-22.3%
Quality45/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 34/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1349 – HK$0.3340 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 20 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1677 to HK$0.1678 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −1.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1349 to HK$0.3340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.5000 HK$0.1070 Fair Value HK$0.1678 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1070 – HK$0.5000 · fair‑value band HK$0.1349 – HK$0.3340 · the HK$0.2160 price screens above the HK$0.1678 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd (1938) currently trades at HK$0.2160, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1678, implying the stock looks roughly 22.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.4B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue declined 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.0%. Net debt stands at HK$1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1349 (bear case) to HK$0.3340 (bull case); at HK$0.2160, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -22%, 1938 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.3800 HK$0.7400 HK$1.17 80
Residual Income HK$1.38 HK$1.68 HK$3.42 76
Rev-Margin DCF — HK$0.0300 HK$0.2100 74
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.3800 HK$0.8000 HK$1.34 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.85 HK$2.87 HK$4.17 31
5Y Revenue Exit — HK$0.0100 HK$0.1500 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0200 HK$0.2800 HK$0.5600 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.08 HK$2.27 HK$3.54 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0900 HK$0.2500 HK$0.4400 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.1700 HK$0.4100 HK$0.7100 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.7500 HK$1.60 HK$2.67 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.66 HK$5.45 HK$7.29 54
Lynch FV HK$1.23 HK$1.75 HK$2.28 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.23 HK$1.75 HK$2.28 46
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.56 HK$3.41 HK$4.26 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.09 HK$2.79 HK$3.49 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.00 HK$2.66 HK$3.33 55
EV/EBITDA — — HK$0.1000 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.7400 HK$0.9900 HK$1.48 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.3800 HK$0.7400 HK$1.17 80
Rev-Margin DCF — HK$0.0300 HK$0.2100 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.38 HK$1.68 HK$3.42 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.28 HK$3.26 HK$4.23 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$3.26) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -26.0%
Net margin 10.5%
Return on equity 18.0%
Free cash flow HK$123M FY2025
P/E ratio 0.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin -4.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1700
EPS growth (YoY) -10.3%
Net debt HK$1.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells longitudinal welded steel pipes in Mainland China, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, rest of Asia, South America, and North America. It operates in two segments, Steel Pipes, and Property Development and Investment.

Full company description

Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells longitudinal welded steel pipes in Mainland China, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, rest of Asia, South America, and North America. It operates in two segments, Steel Pipes, and Property Development and Investment. The company also manufactures and sells steel fittings; screw-thread steels; scrap materials; and trading of equipment and steel plates. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of related manufacturing services; development of properties for sale; and property investment activities. Further, it trades steel pipes; provides steel pipe casing and lining, and port services; and manufacture and sells steel pipe equipment and metallurgy equipment, and tubular pile products. Its steel pipes are used for energy transmission, including oil and gas transmission pipelines, deep sea welded pipes, city gas networks, anti-corrosion and concrete weight coatings, and petrochemicals, as well as mining, infrastructure construction, offshore engineering, steel structure, and water utilities industries. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Bournam Profits Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.4B in FY2025 versus HK$1.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$246M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.4B
Latest YoY
−20.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.5%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Revenue +6.7%/yr
FY21 HK$1.8B
FY22 HK$2.4B
FY23 HK$2.7B
FY24 HK$2.9B
FY25 HK$2.4B
Net income
FY21 −HK$94.4M
FY22 HK$163M
FY23 HK$184M
FY24 HK$213M
FY25 HK$246M

1938 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with JSW Steel Limited →

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Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1678 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1938

Peer Group

Steel · 380 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -26% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.45× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 5 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 4
PAST 72 · sector 16
HEALTH 77 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,269 ₹1,140 -10%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.20 ₹145.39 -22%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 37.25 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 325,000 KRW 155,270 KRW -52%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,838 ARS +16%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,112 ₹516.27 -54%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,894 ₹771.10 -59%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 39.22 MXN -53%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,472 ARS +55%
NMDC Limited NMDC ₹85.00 ₹112.98 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd (1938) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1678 versus a price of HK$0.2160, about −22% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1938?
Our model-based fair value for Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1678 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.2160.
What is the quality score of 1938?
Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd (1938)?
Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1938?
The net profit margin of Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Ltd is about 10.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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