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Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd HK$4.18, price HK$2.08, upside +101.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE100003FB6

LC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd

1983 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$4.18 · Strongly undervalued (+101.0%)
!Quality 39/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +35.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 37.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!6.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$3.32 HK$1.53 Fair Value HK$4.18 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.53 – HK$3.32 · fair‑value band HK$3.50 – HK$5.93 · the HK$2.08 price screens below the HK$4.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Luzhou Bank Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of corporate and retail banking, financial market, and other services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates in four segments: Corporate Banking, Retailing Banking, Financial Markets, and Other.

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Luzhou Bank Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of corporate and retail banking, financial market, and other services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates in four segments: Corporate Banking, Retailing Banking, Financial Markets, and Other. It offers corporate banking products and services, such as corporate loans, bill discounting, corporate deposits, corporate products, and financial services for micro and small enterprises; and retail banking products and services comprising retail deposits, personal business and consumption loans, and personal residential and commercial mortgage loans, as well as bank cards, wealth management products, trust plans, precious metal products and services, collection and remit tax services, and other intermediary services. The company is also involved in financial markets business that consists of money market transactions, such as interbank deposits, interbank lending and borrowing, bond repurchase, bill rediscount, and issuance of interbank certificates of deposit; investment business, including bond and SPV investment; and asset management activities. In addition, it provides settlement and agency services, guarantees and credit commitments, and investment banking services. The company was formerly known as Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Luzhou Bank Co., Ltd. in June 2019. Luzhou Bank Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Luzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983) currently trades at HK$2.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.18, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$6.76 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$2.08 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$2.34, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$3.50 (bear) to HK$5.93 (bull), the price of HK$2.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$6.2B (≈ $790M) · P/E ratio 3.7 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1300 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 17.0% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 101%, 1983 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.50 Fair Value HK$4.18 Bull HK$5.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$4.36 HK$5.09 HK$7.00 74
Gordon GGM HK$1.42 HK$2.56 HK$3.52 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.42 HK$2.34 HK$2.74 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.42 HK$2.56 HK$3.52 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.42 HK$2.34 HK$2.74 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.29 HK$8.39 HK$10.49 63
P/B Multiple HK$5.07 HK$6.76 HK$8.46 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.42 HK$3.24 HK$4.83 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.36 HK$5.09 HK$7.00 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+83.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+27.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.8% vs 11.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 23%
2025 sits 51% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1057 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +101.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.1% · Above median
Return on assets 0.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 37.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 57.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.12× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.55× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.46× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)45 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.95 €77.62 −8%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.79 €4.02 −41%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.07 $6.86 −38%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €99.30 €105.99 +7%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹735.60 ₹406.44 −45%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.23 €8.46 −36%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,327 ₹615.71 −54%

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Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1983

Frequently asked questions

Is Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.18 versus a price of HK$2.08, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1983?
Our model-based fair value for Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is HK$4.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.08.
What is the quality score of 1983?
Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.50, optimistic scenario HK$5.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.18, about +101% upside versus a price of HK$2.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.50, optimistic scenario HK$5.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd it is HK$4.18 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.08. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1983 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.08, fair value HK$4.18, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1983?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.18). For Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd the two are HK$2.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd worth?
The market values Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd at about HK$6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.08; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1983?
Our models span a range for Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.50, base HK$4.18, optimistic HK$5.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1983?
Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 2.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1983 from its 52-week high?
Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at HK$2.08, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$2.55 and 7% above the low of HK$1.95 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.08, calculated fair value HK$4.18 (+101%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1983 calculated?
We run Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.08. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.18, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983) come from?
Earnings per share at Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd grew +11.1 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.2 %, EBIT margin −12.7 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The market capitalisation of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is HK$6.2B (≈ $790M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Earnings per share at Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd are HK$0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The dividend yield of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 6.3% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The net margin of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 17.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
The operating margin of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 57.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Revenue at Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983)?
Earnings per share at Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd are growing +7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983) generate?
The free cash flow of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is −HK$6.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983) carry?
The net debt of Luzhou City Commercial Bank Co Ltd is HK$18.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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