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Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mercedes-Benz Group €61.09, price €39.84, upside +53.3%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Mercedes-Benz Group
1MBG · MICheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value €61.09 · Strongly undervalued (+53.3%)
!Quality 50/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 27/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €37.20 – €60.97 · fair‑value band €37.74 – €101.50 · the €39.84 price screens below the €61.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments.
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Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments. The company develops, manufactures, and sells cars and vans under the Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, G-Class brands, as well as related spare parts and accessories. It also provides financing, leasing, vehicle subscription and rental, fleet management, insurance, and digital services related to charging electric vehicles. The company was formerly known as Daimler AG and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG in February 2022. Mercedes-Benz Group AG was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.
Stock analysis
Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG) currently trades at €39.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €61.09, implying the stock looks roughly 34.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €91.29 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the €39.84 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €42.14, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €37.74 (bear) to €101.50 (bull), the price of €39.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Mercedes-Benz Group reported revenue of €132B in FY2025 versus €134B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €5.1B in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €43.6B · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) €5.09 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 53%, 1MBG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €37.74
Fair Value €61.09
Bull €101.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.20 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€46.15
€80.34
€143.67
74
Growth DCF
€50.21
€83.39
€140.16
73
Residual Income
€76.92
€79.74
€85.03
73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€46.15
€80.34
€143.67
74
Owner Earnings
n/a
€0.5900
>€2.36
70
5Y Revenue Exit
€18.71
€40.10
€71.08
66
5Y EBITDA Exit
€52.42
€98.47
€159.48
70
5Y P/E Exit
€39.23
€75.63
€119.20
66
10Y Revenue Exit
€27.59
€44.52
€62.09
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
€49.28
€80.61
€113.99
65
10Y P/E Exit
€41.27
€66.49
€90.34
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€36.52
€44.63
€50.21
65
EPV
n/a
€3.73
€9.31
65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€39.71
€43.46
€49.18
67
DDM Multi-Stage
€39.71
€49.82
€63.99
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€88.61
€118.14
€147.68
63
P/S Multiple
€68.47
€91.29
€114.12
58
P/B Multiple
€68.47
€91.29
€114.12
55
EV/EBIT
€27.75
€50.64
€73.53
63
EV/EBITDA
€72.76
€110.66
€148.56
66
EV/Revenue
€5.37
€25.21
€45.05
48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€48.71
€65.27
€97.41
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€50.21
€83.39
€140.16
73
Rev-Margin DCF
€18.71
€42.14
€71.52
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€76.92
€79.74
€85.03
73
ROIC Compounder
n/a
€3.73
€9.31
65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€62.46
€89.23
€116.00
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.1% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)0.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Ferrari N.V RACE | $392.85 | $432.14 | +10% |
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| Ford Motor Company F | $12.27 | $12.59 | +3% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.00 | €22.09 | −49% |
| Honda Motor Co HMC | $31.62 | $20.31 | −36% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | €67.80 | €248.34 | +266% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €61.09 versus a price of €39.84, about +53% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1MBG?
Our model-based fair value for Mercedes-Benz Group is €61.09 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €39.84.
What is the quality score of 1MBG?
Mercedes-Benz Group has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €61.09 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €37.74, optimistic scenario €101.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercedes-Benz Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €61.09, about +53% upside versus a price of €39.84 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €37.74, optimistic scenario €101.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
Mercedes-Benz Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €131B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Mercedes-Benz Group pay a dividend?
Mercedes-Benz Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.79% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mercedes-Benz Group would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -0.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1MBG use?
Our models discount Mercedes-Benz Group at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mercedes-Benz Group that is +3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Mercedes-Benz Group grew -0.3 % a year. The price currently implies +3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mercedes-Benz Group (+3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.54 %: that much free cash flow Mercedes-Benz Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercedes-Benz Group it is €61.09 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €39.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mercedes-Benz Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1MBG trades below its calculated fair value: price €39.84, fair value €61.09, a gap of about +53% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1MBG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€39.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€61.09). For Mercedes-Benz Group the two are €21.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercedes-Benz Group worth?
The market values Mercedes-Benz Group at about €43.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €39.84; our models calculate a fair value of €61.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1MBG?
Our models span a range for Mercedes-Benz Group: cautious scenario €37.74, base €61.09, optimistic €101.50 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €39.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1MBG from its 52-week high?
Mercedes-Benz Group trades at €39.84, about 32% below its 52-week high of €58.51 and at the low of €39.84 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €61.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercedes-Benz Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercedes-Benz Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €39.84, calculated fair value €61.09 (+53%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1MBG calculated?
We run Mercedes-Benz Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €61.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mercedes-Benz Group currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €39.84. Our model-based fair value is €61.09, about +53% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercedes-Benz Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€37.74 to €101.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Mercedes-Benz Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The market capitalisation of Mercedes-Benz Group is €43.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group is 7.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
Earnings per share at Mercedes-Benz Group are €5.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The dividend yield of Mercedes-Benz Group is 8.8% (payout 68.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The net margin of Mercedes-Benz Group is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercedes-Benz Group is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercedes-Benz Group is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
The operating margin of Mercedes-Benz Group is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
Revenue at Mercedes-Benz Group is growing −4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG)?
Earnings per share at Mercedes-Benz Group are growing −14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mercedes-Benz Group (1MBG) carry?
The net debt of Mercedes-Benz Group is €68.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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