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NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of NVIDIA Corporation €175, price €209, upside -16.3%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
NVIDIA Corporation
1NVDA · MIOvervalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €174.70 · Overvalued (−16.3%)
✓Quality 73/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +100.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 63.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 98/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.03 – €208.70 · fair‑value band €72.58 – €218.42 · the €208.70 price screens above the €174.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments.
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NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation has a strategic collaboration with Palantir Technologies Inc. to deliver an intelligent engine for running NVIDIA AI and Nemotron open models in sovereign environments. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Stock analysis
NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA) currently trades at €208.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €174.70, 16.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €222.55 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the €208.70 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €43.56, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €72.58 (bear) to €218.42 (bull), the price of €208.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NVIDIA Corporation reported revenue of $216B in FY2026 versus $27.0B in FY2023, a compound +100.0%/yr. Reported net income was $120B in FY2026, compounding +201.8%/yr from FY2023. FY2023 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €5.1T · P/E ratio 36.4 · P/S ratio 20.2 · EPS (TTM) €5.74 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 55.6% · Return on equity 114% · Return on assets (EBIT) 49.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −16%, 1NVDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €72.58
Fair Value €174.70
Bull €218.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.83 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
€37.89
€44.56
€50.48
71
FCF DCF
€63.57
€102.42
€229.48
69
Growth DCF
€59.92
€124.76
€233.65
69
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€63.57
€102.42
€229.48
69
Owner Earnings
€71.56
€167.51
€377.97
65
5Y Revenue Exit
€39.65
€66.09
€121.21
65
5Y EBITDA Exit
€67.67
€122.76
€230.92
66
5Y P/E Exit
€88.15
€206.47
€369.41
62
10Y Revenue Exit
€45.85
€95.03
€124.52
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
€68.08
€156.78
€313.11
59
10Y P/E Exit
€83.36
€201.92
€400.86
55
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€29.94
€208.82
€293.05
59
Lynch FV
€107.88
€154.12
€200.36
57
PEG = 1.0
€107.88
€154.12
€200.36
53
EPV
€37.89
€44.56
€50.48
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€0.3400
€0.7500
€1.26
61
DDM Multi-Stage
€0.3400
€0.6100
€0.7800
62
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€92.47
€123.30
€154.12
63
P/S Multiple
€32.67
€43.56
€54.45
58
P/B Multiple
€25.96
€34.61
€43.27
55
EV/EBIT
€86.19
€114.88
€143.57
66
EV/EBITDA
€66.08
€88.07
€110.05
67
EV/Revenue
€27.83
€39.71
€51.59
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€2.88
€3.87
€5.77
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€59.92
€124.76
€233.65
69
Rev-Margin DCF
€43.62
€75.63
€142.82
64
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€24.26
€47.47
€153.84
59
ROIC Compounder
€45.90
€66.49
€93.51
66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€155.78
€222.55
€289.31
63
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
96
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
28
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+65.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+100.0%
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +92.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+92.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 60%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 309% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+42.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.5% a year for the price and +38.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+81.8%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+41.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+36.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+31.4%
Projected 2031 (sales)+26.5%
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Is AI-Driven Edge Security Integration With Nvidia’s Stack Altering The Investment Case For Palo Alto Networks (PANW)?
- Nvidia Supplier FormFactor’s Stock Surges After Deutsche Bank Says It’s a Buy
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Intel Corporation INTC | $115.93 | $33.67 | −71% |
| Arm Holdings ARM | $310.32 | $44.44 | −86% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 5,285 TWD | 3,142 TWD | −41% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $280.09 | $81.75 | −71% |
| Marvell Technology, Inc MRVL | $251.90 | $101.64 | −60% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €174.70 versus a price of €208.70, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1NVDA?
Our model-based fair value for NVIDIA Corporation is €174.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €208.70.
What is the quality score of 1NVDA?
NVIDIA Corporation has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €174.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €72.58, optimistic scenario €218.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NVIDIA Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €174.70, about −16% upside versus a price of €208.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €72.58, optimistic scenario €218.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
NVIDIA Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $253B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does NVIDIA Corporation pay a dividend?
NVIDIA Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NVIDIA Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +40.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +100.1 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1NVDA use?
Our models discount NVIDIA Corporation at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 2.20, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NVIDIA Corporation that is +40.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at NVIDIA Corporation grew +100.1 % a year. The price currently implies +40.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NVIDIA Corporation (+40.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.69 %: that much free cash flow NVIDIA Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NVIDIA Corporation it is €174.70 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €208.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NVIDIA Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1NVDA trades above its calculated fair value: price €208.70, fair value €174.70, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1NVDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€208.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€174.70). For NVIDIA Corporation the two are €34.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NVIDIA Corporation worth?
The market values NVIDIA Corporation at about €5.1T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €208.70; our models calculate a fair value of €174.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1NVDA?
Our models span a range for NVIDIA Corporation: cautious scenario €72.58, base €174.70, optimistic €218.42 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €208.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1NVDA from its 52-week high?
NVIDIA Corporation trades at €208.70, at its 52-week high of €208.70 and 44% above the low of €144.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €174.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NVIDIA Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NVIDIA Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €208.70, calculated fair value €174.70 (−16%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1NVDA calculated?
We run NVIDIA Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €174.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NVIDIA Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €208.70. Our model-based fair value is €174.70, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NVIDIA Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (€72.58 to €218.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of NVIDIA Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The market capitalisation of NVIDIA Corporation is €5.1T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of NVIDIA Corporation is 36.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NVIDIA Corporation is 20.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
Earnings per share at NVIDIA Corporation are €5.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The dividend yield of NVIDIA Corporation is 0.0% (payout 0.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The net margin of NVIDIA Corporation is 55.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NVIDIA Corporation is 114% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NVIDIA Corporation is 49.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
The operating margin of NVIDIA Corporation is 65.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
Revenue at NVIDIA Corporation is growing +85.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +100%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA)?
Earnings per share at NVIDIA Corporation are growing +215% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NVIDIA Corporation (1NVDA) carry?
The net debt of NVIDIA Corporation is $2.4B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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