Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Texas Instruments Incorporated stock $81.25, price $277, that is 70.7% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $130.12 – $330.59 · fair‑value band $46.59 – $118.89 · the $277.36 price screens above the $81.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments.
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The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, multiphase controllers and power stages, and lighting products.
This segment also provides signal chain products that sense, condition, and measure real-world signals and convert them into data to be transferred or converted for further processing and control, such as amplifiers, data converters, interface products, motor drives, clocks, and logic and sensing products.
The Embedded Processing segment offers microcontrollers, processors, wireless connectivity, and radar products; and applications processors for specific computing activity.
It also provides DLP products primarily for use in projecting high-definition images; calculators; and application-specific integrated circuits.
Its products are used in various markets, such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, calculators, and others. The company markets and sells its semiconductor products through direct sales and distributors, as well as through its website.
Texas Instruments Incorporated was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) currently trades at $277.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.25, 71% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $117.36 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $277.36 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.58, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $46.59 (bear) to $118.89 (bull), the price of $277.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Texas Instruments Incorporated reported revenue of $17.7B in FY2025 versus $18.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −10.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $253B Mega · P/E ratio 36.0 · P/S ratio 12.2 · EPS (TTM) $7.71 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 34.3% · Return on equity 39.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 92 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −71%, TXN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($8.58 to $153.16). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$46.59Fair Value $81.25Bull$118.89
Price $277.36 · Downside -70.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.73 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.8% vs 6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.2% a year for the price and +14.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows a moderate moat anchored in pricing strength and innovation within analog and embedded chips for industrial use, but suffers from thin overall data and limited public signals on its competitive standing.
Main risk: Chinese analog chipmakers could erode Texas Instruments' share in its roughly 20 percent China revenue by offering lower-priced alternatives that displace its products in industrial and consumer applications.
Bull case: Texas Instruments could leverage its new lower-cost 300mm US fabs and broad portfolio to win share outside China and deepen design wins in AI power infrastructure despite competitive and trade pressures.
Bear case: Persistent Chinese substitution, hyperscaler custom silicon adoption and escalating trade restrictions could shrink Texas Instruments' addressable market, compress margins on remaining sales and leave new capacity underutilized.
Texas Instruments just introduced its smallest fully featured multiprotocol communications module for Industrial Ethernet, targeting connected factories and robotics. This extends its established position supplying analog and embedded chips to industrial customers. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will these compact devices drive meaningful new industrial revenue growth, or will they mainly defend market share while added capacity and acquisition debt pressure margins?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 370 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−70.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)39.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)34.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)47.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $81.25 versus a price of $277.36, about 71% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXN?
Our model-based fair value for Texas Instruments Incorporated is $81.25 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $277.36.
What is the quality score of TXN?
Texas Instruments Incorporated has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $81.25 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $46.59, optimistic scenario $118.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Texas Instruments Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $81.25, about 71% lower versus a price of $277.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $46.59, optimistic scenario $118.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Texas Instruments Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Texas Instruments Incorporated pay a dividend?
Texas Instruments Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 2.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Texas Instruments Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +40.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TXN use?
Our models discount Texas Instruments Incorporated at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Texas Instruments Incorporated that is +40.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Texas Instruments Incorporated grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +40.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Texas Instruments Incorporated (+40.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.02 %: that much free cash flow Texas Instruments Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Texas Instruments Incorporated it is $81.25 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $277.36. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TXN trades above its calculated fair value: price $277.36, fair value $81.25, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($277.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($81.25). For Texas Instruments Incorporated the two are $196.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Texas Instruments Incorporated worth?
The market values Texas Instruments Incorporated at about $253B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $277.36; our models calculate a fair value of $81.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXN?
Our models span a range for Texas Instruments Incorporated: cautious scenario $46.59, base $81.25, optimistic $118.89 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $277.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXN?
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $81.25 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 23.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 15.5, P/S 12.2, EV/EBITDA 24.6.
What is the PEG ratio of TXN?
The PEG ratio of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Texas Instruments Incorporated (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 39.7%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXN from its 52-week high?
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at $277.36, about 16% below its 52-week high of $330.59 and 84% above the low of $150.79 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $81.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Texas Instruments Incorporated?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $277.36, calculated fair value $81.25 (−71%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXN calculated?
We run Texas Instruments Incorporated through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $81.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Texas Instruments Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $277.36. Our model-based fair value is $81.25, about 71% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Texas Instruments Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($46.59 to $118.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) come from?
Earnings per share at Texas Instruments Incorporated grew +7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Texas Instruments Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The market capitalisation of Texas Instruments Incorporated is $253B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 12.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Earnings per share at Texas Instruments Incorporated are $7.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The dividend yield of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 2.0% (payout 73.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The net margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 34.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 39.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 25.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The operating margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 47.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Revenue at Texas Instruments Incorporated is growing +27.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Earnings per share at Texas Instruments Incorporated are growing +77.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) carry?
The net debt of Texas Instruments Incorporated is $12.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026