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Data-driven stock valuation

Micron Technology Inc (MU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Micron Technology Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $964B · ISIN US5951121038

At a glance

MT Micron Technology Inc logo Micron Technology Inc MU · US
Price$1,017
Fair Value$148.38
Upside−85.4% ⚠
Quality74/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 585% above our fair value of $148.38.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Micron Technology Inc is $148.38 per share against a price of $1,017, so the fair value sits 85% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 55.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.06% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
✓Wide moat 84/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $66.16 to $257.19
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $66.16 to $257.19

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +13.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($257.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($66.16 to $257.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$1,213 $47.94 Fair Value $148.38 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $47.94 – $1,213 · fair‑value band $66.16 – $257.19 · the $1,017 price screens above the $148.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

Micron Technology Inc (MU) currently trades at $1,017, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.38, implying the stock looks roughly 584.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $184.03 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,017 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.13, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Micron Technology Inc generated revenue of $58.1B at a net margin of 41.5%. Revenue grew 196.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.8%. Net debt stands at $5.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Scenario range: $66.16 (bear) to $257.19 (bull), the price of $1,017 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −85%, MU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($20.72 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($7.95 to $313.42). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $19.48 $40.03 $79.31 75
EPV $75.77 $89.43 $101.58 74
Growth DCF $19.19 $37.74 $72.42 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $19.48 $40.03 $79.31 75
Owner Earnings $11.44 $24.18 $48.53 71
5Y Revenue Exit $60.88 $126.24 $219.71 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $148.43 $313.42 $531.12 72
5Y P/E Exit $109.45 $230.09 $374.95 68
10Y Revenue Exit $44.90 $104.26 $204.44 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $108.16 $247.55 $480.84 64
10Y P/E Exit $81.32 $183.75 $342.23 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $51.41 $268.65 $371.69 63
Lynch FV $73.67 $105.24 $136.82 61
PEG = 1.0 $73.67 $105.24 $136.82 57
EPV $75.77 $89.43 $101.58 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.45 $9.71 $16.33 65
DDM Multi-Stage $4.45 $7.95 $10.12 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $158.77 $211.70 $264.62 63
P/S Multiple $96.40 $128.53 $160.66 58
P/B Multiple $96.40 $128.53 $160.66 55
EV/EBIT $155.63 $208.07 $260.50 66
EV/EBITDA $216.14 $288.74 $361.35 67
EV/Revenue $77.85 $111.94 $146.02 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $23.98 $32.13 $47.96 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $19.19 $37.74 $72.42 74
Rev-Margin DCF $60.88 $122.78 $205.90 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $52.53 $72.35 $283.04 64
ROIC Compounder $88.17 $126.60 $181.31 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $128.82 $184.03 $239.24 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($184.03) versus Dividend Discount ($7.95). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 24.4
P/S ratio 5.57 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $41.72 price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.4
Dividend yield 0.0% payout 1.2%
Net margin 22.8% FY2025
Return on equity 66.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 80.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $90.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +346% 3y avg +6.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.7B FY2025
Net debt $5.6B FY2025 · ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 99
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments.

Full company description

Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments. The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and technology leadership products that include 1y DRAM and G9 NAND technologies. It also offers storage products, such as data center solid-state drives (SSD), client SSD storage, and auto and industrial SSD storage; managed NAND; NAND flash; NOR flash; and memory cards. In addition, the company provides design tools, including FBGA and part decoders; DRAM power calculators; NAND power calculators; simulation models; chipset compatibility guides; serial presence-detection tools; cross-reference tools; UFSparm; SSD firmware; software and drivers; storage executive software; and obsolete part catalogs. It markets its semiconductor memory and storage products under the Micron and Crucial brands. The company serves the data center, PC, graphics, networking, automotive, industrial, and consumer embedded markets, as well as the smartphone and other mobile-device markets. It sells its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; web-based customer direct sales channel; and channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Micron Technology Inc reported revenue of $37.4B in FY2025 versus $27.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $8.5B in FY2025, compounding +9.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$37.4B
Latest YoY
+48.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+6.7%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 8.1% vs 10Y 11.7%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14.0% (2020) → 26.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop473% (2008) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +7.8%/yr
FY21 $27.7B
FY22 $30.8B
FY23 $15.5B
FY24 $25.1B
FY25 $37.4B
Net income +9.9%/yr
FY21 $5.9B
FY22 $8.7B
FY23 −$5.8B
FY24 $778M
FY25 $8.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.3 %

of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %

EBIT margin −0.4 %
Tax rate −1.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

MU screens 585% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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Micron Technology Inc · Fair Value
$148.38 −585%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Micron Technology Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MU

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Semiconductors · 325 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 67% · Top 25%
Return on assets 35% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 56% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 80% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 346% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 17.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 10.67× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 577.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 14.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.13× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Micron Technology Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+63.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price0.15 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 65
PAST100 · sector 25
HEALTH89 · sector 96
DIVIDEND1 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $230.36 $98.98 −57%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM $428.91 $296.10 −31%
Broadcom Inc AVGO $357.90 $118.27 −67%
SK hynix Inc 000660 1,647,000 KRW 1,481,291 KRW −10%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD $477.57 $55.02 −88%
Intel Corporation INTC $95.80 $35.41 −63%
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN $258.44 $78.54 −70%
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation 688981 ¥121.14 ¥16.55 −86%
QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM $168.74 $147.20 −13%
MediaTek Inc 2454 3,845 TWD 1,559 TWD −59%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Micron Technology Inc (MU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $148.38 versus a price of $1,017, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MU?
Our model-based fair value for Micron Technology Inc is $148.38 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,017.
What is the quality score of MU?
Micron Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $148.38 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $66.16, optimistic scenario $257.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Micron Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $148.38, about −85% upside versus a price of $1,017 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $66.16, optimistic scenario $257.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Micron Technology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $58.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MU?
The net profit margin of Micron Technology Inc is about 41.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 41.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Micron Technology Inc pay a dividend?
Micron Technology Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Micron Technology Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +63.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Aug 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MU use?
Our models discount Micron Technology Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 2.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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