Micron Technology Inc (MU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Micron Technology Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $148.38 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
✓Quality 74/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 55.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.06% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers(9/15)
✓Wide moat84/100
!Insider activity44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.94 – $1,213 · fair‑value band $66.16 – $239.24 · the $1,016 price screens above the $148.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments.
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Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments. The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and technology leadership products that include 1y DRAM and G9 NAND technologies. It also offers storage products, such as data center solid-state drives (SSD), client SSD storage, and auto and industrial SSD storage; managed NAND; NAND flash; NOR flash; and memory cards. In addition, the company provides design tools, including FBGA and part decoders; DRAM power calculators; NAND power calculators; simulation models; chipset compatibility guides; serial presence-detection tools; cross-reference tools; UFSparm; SSD firmware; software and drivers; storage executive software; and obsolete part catalogs. It markets its semiconductor memory and storage products under the Micron and Crucial brands. The company serves the data center, PC, graphics, networking, automotive, industrial, and consumer embedded markets, as well as the smartphone and other mobile-device markets. It sells its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; web-based customer direct sales channel; and channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
Stock analysis
Micron Technology Inc (MU) currently trades at $1,016, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.38, implying the stock looks roughly 584.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $184.03 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,016 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.13, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $66.16 (bear) to $239.24 (bull), the price of $1,016 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Micron Technology Inc reported revenue of $37.4B in FY2025 versus $27.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $8.5B in FY2025, compounding +9.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1T · P/E ratio 24.3 · P/S ratio 5.56 · EPS (TTM) $41.72 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 22.8% · Return on equity 66.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −85%, MU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($7.95 to $313.42). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $66.16Fair Value $148.38Bull $239.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($20.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 26%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 327 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)67% · Top 25%
Return on assets35% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)56% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)80% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth346% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B17.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)10.67× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF577.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.13× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Micron Technology Inc (MU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $148.38 versus a price of $1,016, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MU?
Our model-based fair value for Micron Technology Inc is $148.38 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,016.
What is the quality score of MU?
Micron Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $148.38 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $66.16, optimistic scenario $239.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Micron Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $148.38, about −85% upside versus a price of $1,016 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $66.16, optimistic scenario $239.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Micron Technology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $58.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Micron Technology Inc pay a dividend?
Micron Technology Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Micron Technology Inc would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MU use?
Our models discount Micron Technology Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 2.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Micron Technology Inc that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Micron Technology Inc (MU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Micron Technology Inc grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Micron Technology Inc (MU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Micron Technology Inc (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.15 %: that much free cash flow Micron Technology Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Micron Technology Inc it is $148.38 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $1,016. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Micron Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, MU trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,016, fair value $148.38, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,016); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($148.38). For Micron Technology Inc the two are $867.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Micron Technology Inc worth?
The market values Micron Technology Inc at about $1.1T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $1,016; our models calculate a fair value of $148.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MU?
Our models span a range for Micron Technology Inc: cautious scenario $66.16, base $148.38, optimistic $239.24 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $1,016). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MU?
Micron Technology Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $148.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 17.8, P/S 10.7, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MU?
The PEG ratio of Micron Technology Inc is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Micron Technology Inc (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 66.6%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MU from its 52-week high?
Micron Technology Inc trades at $1,016, about 7% below its 52-week high of $1,089 and 884% above the low of $103.23 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $148.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Micron Technology Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Micron Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $1,016, calculated fair value $148.38 (−85%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MU calculated?
We run Micron Technology Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $148.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Micron Technology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $1,016. Our model-based fair value is $148.38, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Micron Technology Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($239.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($66.16 to $239.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Micron Technology Inc (MU) come from?
Earnings per share at Micron Technology Inc grew +5.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Micron Technology Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The market capitalisation of Micron Technology Inc is $1.1T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Micron Technology Inc is 5.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Earnings per share at Micron Technology Inc are $41.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The dividend yield of Micron Technology Inc is 0.0% (payout 1.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The net margin of Micron Technology Inc is 22.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Micron Technology Inc is 66.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Micron Technology Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
The operating margin of Micron Technology Inc is 80.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Revenue at Micron Technology Inc is growing +346% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Micron Technology Inc (MU)?
Earnings per share at Micron Technology Inc are growing +13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Micron Technology Inc (MU) carry?
The net debt of Micron Technology Inc is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 17, 2026