Arm Holdings (ARM) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $280B
Arm Holdings
ARM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −5.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 94% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range $47.87 – $439.46 · fair‑value band $12.70 – $19.77 · the $282.57 price screens above the $16.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Arm Holdings (ARM) currently trades at $282.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.25, implying the stock looks roughly 94.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arm Holdings generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 20.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.70 (bear case) to $19.77 (bull case); at $282.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 183% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -94%, ARM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($24.87) versus Asset-Based ($5.20). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services.
Full company description
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product portfolio, including CPU IP, GPU and neural processing unit (NPU) accelerators, system IP such as interconnects, compute platform products including pre-integrated CSSs, and development tools and software. The company serves semiconductor companies, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers (CSPs), and organizations developing chips for end markets such as smartphones, consumer electronics, industrial IoT, embedded systems, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and robotics. It provides its products and services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Cambridge, United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Arm Holdings reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2026 versus $2.7B in FY2022, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was $904M in FY2026, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2022.
ARM screens 94% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $398.37 | $207.49 | -48% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €367.75 | €121.25 | -67% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$52.57 | C$7.50 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €425.20 | €56.33 | -87% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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