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Methanol Chemicals Company (2001) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Methanol Chemicals Company SAR 3.84, price SAR 27.62, upside -86.1%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · SA · ISIN SA124060V8H1

MC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Methanol Chemicals Company

2001 · SR

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 3.84 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−86.1%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -77.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

48.75 SAR 0.0003 SAR Fair Value 3.84 SAR Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.0003 SAR – 48.75 SAR · fair‑value band 3.84 SAR – 5.30 SAR · the 27.62 SAR price screens above the 3.84 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Methanol Chemicals Company engages in the production and sale of formaldehyde liquid and urea formaldehyde liquid in the Saudi Arabia and internationally.

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Methanol Chemicals Company engages in the production and sale of formaldehyde liquid and urea formaldehyde liquid in the Saudi Arabia and internationally. It offers aqueous formaldehyde solution, urea formaldehyde concentrate, hexamethylene tetramine, paraformaldehyde, urea formaldehyde powder resin, melamine formaldehyde powder resin, melamine urea formaldehyde resin, sulphonated naphthalene formaldehyde, hexane methylene tetramine, phenol formaldehyde resins, and liquid and powder formaldehyde resins. The company also provides dimethylamine, trimethylamine, methanol, monomethylamine, dimethyl formamide, pentaerythritol, sodium formate, carbon monoxide, di-methylamine, concrete improvers, acetaldehyde, and penta aritheretol; and formaldehyde liquid and urea formaldehyde liquid and their mixtures, trimon-methylamine, and di-methyl Formamide. The company was formerly known as Saudi Formaldehyde Chemical Company Limited. Methanol Chemicals Company was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Jubail, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Methanol Chemicals Company (2001) currently trades at 27.62 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.84 SAR, 86.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 12.74 SAR per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 27.62 SAR price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 2.20 SAR, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 3.84 SAR (bear) to 5.30 SAR (bull), the price of 27.62 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Methanol Chemicals Company reported revenue of 622M SAR in FY2025 versus 1.0B SAR in FY2021, a compound −11.4%/yr. Reported net income was −480M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 539M SAR (≈ $143M) · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) −31.97 SAR · Net margin −77.1% · Return on equity −114% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3% · Operating margin 25.4% · Revenue (TTM) 622M SAR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 363% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −86%, 2001 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3.84 SAR Fair Value 3.84 SAR Bull 5.30 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 6.36 SAR 10.72 SAR 17.74 SAR 76
Growth DCF 6.79 SAR 10.88 SAR 16.97 SAR 75
5Y Revenue Exit n/a 1.72 SAR 4.67 SAR 67
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 6.36 SAR 10.72 SAR 17.74 SAR 76
5Y Revenue Exit n/a 1.72 SAR 4.67 SAR 67
10Y Revenue Exit 2.71 SAR 4.36 SAR 5.92 SAR 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.51 SAR 12.74 SAR 19.01 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 6.79 SAR 10.88 SAR 16.97 SAR 75
Rev-Margin DCF n/a 2.20 SAR 5.56 SAR 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.1% (2020) → −25.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+77.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +74.0% a year for the price.

2001 screens overvalued: fair value 86% below the price. Compare with Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 352 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −86.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −77.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −17.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.94× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.50× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 19.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)53 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥16.15 ¥43.28 +168%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥71.46 ¥78.61 +10%
LG Chem, Ltd 051910 252,500 KRW 587,755 KRW +133%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥33.97 ¥19.25 −43%
Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co 000301 ¥13.36 ¥3.06 −77%
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 67.00 TWD 17.68 TWD −74%
Syensqo SA SYENS €78.20 €32.87 −58%
PETRONAS Chemicals Group 5183 4.49 MYR 1.51 MYR −66%

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Methanol Chemicals Company · Fair Value
3.84 SAR −86%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Methanol Chemicals Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2001

Frequently asked questions

Is Methanol Chemicals Company (2001) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.84 SAR versus a price of 27.62 SAR, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2001?
Our model-based fair value for Methanol Chemicals Company is 3.84 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 27.62 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2001?
Methanol Chemicals Company has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.84 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.84 SAR, optimistic scenario 5.30 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Methanol Chemicals Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.84 SAR, about −86% upside versus a price of 27.62 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.84 SAR, optimistic scenario 5.30 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Methanol Chemicals Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 622M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Methanol Chemicals Company would have to grow free cash flow by +77.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2001 use?
Our models discount Methanol Chemicals Company at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Methanol Chemicals Company that is +77.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Methanol Chemicals Company (2001) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Methanol Chemicals Company grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +77.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Methanol Chemicals Company (+77.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.39 %: that much free cash flow Methanol Chemicals Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Methanol Chemicals Company it is 3.84 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 27.62 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Methanol Chemicals Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2001 trades above its calculated fair value: price 27.62 SAR, fair value 3.84 SAR, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2001?
No. The price is what the market pays today (27.62 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.84 SAR). For Methanol Chemicals Company the two are 23.78 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Methanol Chemicals Company worth?
The market values Methanol Chemicals Company at about 539M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 27.62 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 3.84 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2001?
Our models span a range for Methanol Chemicals Company: cautious scenario 3.84 SAR, base 3.84 SAR, optimistic 5.30 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 27.62 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Balance-sheet figures for Methanol Chemicals Company (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −113.8%, debt of 0.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2001 from its 52-week high?
Methanol Chemicals Company trades at 27.62 SAR, about 31% below its 52-week high of 39.88 SAR and 363% above the low of 5.97 SAR (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.84 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Methanol Chemicals Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Methanol Chemicals Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 27.62 SAR, calculated fair value 3.84 SAR (−86%), Quality Score 40/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2001 calculated?
We run Methanol Chemicals Company through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.84 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Methanol Chemicals Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 27.62 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 3.84 SAR, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Methanol Chemicals Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.30 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Methanol Chemicals Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The market capitalisation of Methanol Chemicals Company is 539M SAR (≈ $143M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Methanol Chemicals Company is 0.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Earnings per share at Methanol Chemicals Company are −31.97 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The net margin of Methanol Chemicals Company is −77.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Methanol Chemicals Company is −114% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Methanol Chemicals Company is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
The operating margin of Methanol Chemicals Company is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Revenue at Methanol Chemicals Company is growing −17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Methanol Chemicals Company (2001)?
Earnings per share at Methanol Chemicals Company are growing −62.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Methanol Chemicals Company (2001) carry?
The net debt of Methanol Chemicals Company is 259M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 36.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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