Changchai Co Ltd (200570) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Changchai Co Ltd HK$2.98, price HK$2.04, upside +46.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.65 – HK$2.77 · fair‑value band HK$2.90 – HK$3.05 · the HK$2.04 price screens below the HK$2.98 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Changchai Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells small and medium-sized single cylinder and multi-cylinder diesel engines under the Changchai brand in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Changchai Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells small and medium-sized single cylinder and multi-cylinder diesel engines under the Changchai brand in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers light diesel and outboard engines; gasoline engines under the Robin brand; and intelligent integrated charging stations. Its diesel engines are used in tractors, combine harvesters, light commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, small construction machinery, generating sets, marine engines, pickup and light trucks, low-speed trucks, gardening machinery, plant protection machinery, rice transplanters, cold chain and ships, water pump units, road maintenance machinery, and other fields. The company also provides diesel engine blocks, cylinder heads, crankshafts, gear chamber covers, balance shafts, and other parts for diesel engine manufacturing enterprises; castings, such as clamp bodies, brackets, and valve plates; waterjet propellers, marine diesel emergency fire pump units, small marine generator units, and marine supporting products; and grain harvesting machines, rotary tillers, walking tractors, and molds and fixtures. In addition, it engages in the assembly and sale of diesel and gasoline engine units. Further, the company offers external investment and consulting services; and real estate management services. It also exports its products. Changchai Company, Limited was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Changzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Changchai Co Ltd (200570) currently trades at HK$2.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.98, implying the stock looks roughly 31.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$5.27 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$2.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.9000, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.90 (bear) to HK$3.05 (bull), the price of HK$2.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Changchai Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 50.8M CNY in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $183M) · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1300 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at 46%, 200570 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.90Fair Value HK$2.98Bull HK$3.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0817 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.1% vs −4.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−42.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changchai Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200570
Frequently asked questions
Is Changchai Co Ltd (200570) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.98 versus a price of HK$2.04, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200570?
Our model-based fair value for Changchai Co Ltd is HK$2.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.04.
What is the quality score of 200570?
Changchai Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.90, optimistic scenario HK$3.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changchai Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.98, about +46% upside versus a price of HK$2.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.90, optimistic scenario HK$3.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Changchai Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Changchai Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Changchai Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changchai Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 200570 use?
Our models discount Changchai Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changchai Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changchai Co Ltd (200570) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changchai Co Ltd grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changchai Co Ltd (200570) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changchai Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.29 %: that much free cash flow Changchai Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changchai Co Ltd it is HK$2.98 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$2.04. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changchai Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200570 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.04, fair value HK$2.98, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200570?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.98). For Changchai Co Ltd the two are HK$0.9400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changchai Co Ltd worth?
The market values Changchai Co Ltd at about HK$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.04; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200570?
Our models span a range for Changchai Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.90, base HK$2.98, optimistic HK$3.05 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$2.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200570?
Changchai Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 200570?
The PEG ratio of Changchai Co Ltd is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changchai Co Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 2.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200570 from its 52-week high?
Changchai Co Ltd trades at HK$2.04, about 12% below its 52-week high of HK$2.31 and 17% above the low of HK$1.74 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changchai Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changchai Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$2.04, calculated fair value HK$2.98 (+46%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200570 calculated?
We run Changchai Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Changchai Co Ltd currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.04. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.98, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changchai Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (HK$2.90 to HK$3.05), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Changchai Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The market capitalisation of Changchai Co Ltd is HK$1.4B (≈ $183M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changchai Co Ltd is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Earnings per share at Changchai Co Ltd are HK$0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The dividend yield of Changchai Co Ltd is 1.1% (payout 16.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The net margin of Changchai Co Ltd is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changchai Co Ltd is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changchai Co Ltd is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
The operating margin of Changchai Co Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Revenue at Changchai Co Ltd is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changchai Co Ltd (200570)?
Earnings per share at Changchai Co Ltd are growing +70.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Changchai Co Ltd (200570) hold?
Changchai Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 969M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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