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Li Auto Inc (2015) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$97.2B (≈ $12.4B) · ISIN KYG5479M1050

What is Li Auto Inc really worth?

LA Li Auto Inc 2015 · HK
PriceHK$47.82
Fair ValueHK$26.07
Upside−45.5%
Quality30/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 83% above our fair value of HK$26.07.

As of Aug 28, 2026, the fair value of Li Auto Inc is HK$26.07 per share against a price of HK$47.82, so the fair value sits 45% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +63.2 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -1.7% net margin · fiscal year 2025 1.0%
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range HK$19.38 – HK$26.07

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from HK$26.00 to HK$26.07 (+0.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$26.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$184.30 HK$45.86 Fair Value HK$26.07 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$45.86 – HK$184.30 · fair‑value band HK$19.38 – HK$26.07 · the HK$47.82 price screens above the HK$26.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

Li Auto Inc (2015) currently trades at HK$47.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.07, implying the stock looks roughly 83.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$50.45 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$47.82 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$8.69, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Li Auto Inc generated revenue of HK$109B at a net margin of −1.7%. Revenue declined 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$39.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$19.38 (bear case) to HK$26.07 (bull case); at HK$47.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −45%, 2015 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings best evidence HK$36.20 HK$50.45 HK$80.37 73
Residual Income HK$23.50 HK$22.04 HK$16.73 67
EV/EBITDA HK$40.43 HK$45.56 HK$50.69 66
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings best evidence HK$36.20 HK$50.45 HK$80.37 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.48 HK$24.24 HK$34.02 58
Lynch FV HK$12.52 HK$17.89 HK$23.26 57
PEG = 1.0 HK$12.52 HK$17.89 HK$23.26 53
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$8.43 HK$11.25 HK$14.06 61
P/S Multiple HK$6.52 HK$8.69 HK$10.86 56
P/B Multiple HK$6.52 HK$8.69 HK$10.86 53
EV/EBITDA HK$40.43 HK$45.56 HK$50.69 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$16.95 HK$22.72 HK$33.91 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$23.50 HK$22.04 HK$16.73 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$16.62 HK$23.75 HK$30.87 64

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$50.45) versus Multiples (HK$8.69). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 1.05 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.4100
Net margin 1.0% FY2025
Return on equity −2.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% avg 5y
Operating margin −13.1% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$109B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −11.4% 3y avg +34.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$12.8B FY2025
Net cash HK$39.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 61
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles.

Full company description

Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Li Auto Inc reported revenue of 109B CNY in FY2025 versus 27.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +41.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$109B
Latest YoY
−24.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+63.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+169.7%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−54.8% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−54.8%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7.1% (2020) → −0.9% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop89% (2025) · in HKD
Revenue +41.9%/yr
FY21 27.0B CNY
FY22 45.3B CNY
FY23 124B CNY
FY24 144B CNY
FY25 109B CNY
Net income
FY21 −321M CNY
FY22 −2.0B CNY
FY23 11.7B CNY
FY24 8.0B CNY
FY25 1.1B CNY

2015 screens 83% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

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Li Auto Inc · Fair Value
HK$26.07 −83%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Li Auto Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2015.HK

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −13% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −11% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.17× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.81× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 23
FUTURE0 · sector 27
PAST0 · sector 21
HEALTH98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $197.11 $251.77 +28%
BYD Company 81211 HK$73.50 HK$46.64 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €46.95 €106.16 +126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3 €81.30 €248.34 +205%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Li Auto Inc (2015) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$26.07 versus a price of HK$47.82, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2015?
Our model-based fair value for Li Auto Inc is HK$26.07 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$47.82.
What is the quality score of 2015?
Li Auto Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Auto Inc (2015)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$26.07 (as of Aug 28, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$19.38, optimistic scenario HK$26.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Auto Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$26.07, about −45% upside versus a price of HK$47.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$19.38, optimistic scenario HK$26.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Auto Inc (2015)?
Li Auto Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$109B (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2015?
The net profit margin of Li Auto Inc is about −1.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
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