Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hiwin Technologies Corp TWD 73.78, price TWD 326, upside -77.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 154.22 TWD – 409.50 TWD · fair‑value band 54.99 TWD – 91.65 TWD · the 325.50 TWD price screens above the 73.78 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hiwin Technologies Corporation manufactures and sells motion control and systematic technology products in Taiwan, China, Germany, the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through Linear Guideways, Ballscrews, and Other segments.
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Hiwin Technologies Corporation manufactures and sells motion control and systematic technology products in Taiwan, China, Germany, the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through Linear Guideways, Ballscrews, and Other segments. It offers ballscrews, Ball Spline, linear guideways, bearings, DATORKER strain wave gear, end effectors, torque motor rotary tables, and semiconductor subsystem, as well as single and multi-axis robots; and medical robots and equipment. The company also provides ball screws, linear guideways, industrial robots, aerospace automation equipment parts, computer numerical control (CNC) milling machines, and medical equipment. In addition, it engages in the research, development, design, manufacture, and sale of solar cells, electronic components, electric power supplies, electric transmission, and power distribution machinery products, as well as gear cutting tools and machinery; design, integrated application, research, development, manufacture, and sale of thread forming machinery; and manufacture and sale of aerospace parts. The company offers its products under the HIWIN brand name. Hiwin Technologies Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) currently trades at 325.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 73.78 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 341.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 87.68 TWD per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 325.50 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 29.28 TWD, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 54.99 TWD (bear) to 91.65 TWD (bull), the price of 325.50 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hiwin Technologies Corp reported revenue of 24.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 27.3B TWD in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B TWD in FY2025, compounding −18.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 106B TWD (≈ $3.3B) · P/E ratio 75.5 · P/S ratio 4.75 · EPS (TTM) 4.31 TWD · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −77%, 2049 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 54.99 TWDFair Value 73.78 TWDBull 91.65 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.69 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.8% a year for the price and +11.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Hiwin Technologies Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)75.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.83× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.27× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA25.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.35× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)47· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)16· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 73.78 TWD versus a price of 325.50 TWD, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2049?
Our model-based fair value for Hiwin Technologies Corp is 73.78 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 325.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2049?
Hiwin Technologies Corp has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 73.78 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 54.99 TWD, optimistic scenario 91.65 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hiwin Technologies Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 73.78 TWD, about −77% upside versus a price of 325.50 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 54.99 TWD, optimistic scenario 91.65 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Hiwin Technologies Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.3B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hiwin Technologies Corp pay a dividend?
Hiwin Technologies Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hiwin Technologies Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +34.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2049 use?
Our models discount Hiwin Technologies Corp at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.07, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hiwin Technologies Corp that is +34.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hiwin Technologies Corp grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +34.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hiwin Technologies Corp (+34.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.42 %: that much free cash flow Hiwin Technologies Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hiwin Technologies Corp it is 73.78 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 325.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hiwin Technologies Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2049 trades above its calculated fair value: price 325.50 TWD, fair value 73.78 TWD, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2049?
No. The price is what the market pays today (325.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (73.78 TWD). For Hiwin Technologies Corp the two are 251.72 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hiwin Technologies Corp worth?
The market values Hiwin Technologies Corp at about 106B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 325.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 73.78 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2049?
Our models span a range for Hiwin Technologies Corp: cautious scenario 54.99 TWD, base 73.78 TWD, optimistic 91.65 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 325.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2049?
Hiwin Technologies Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 73.78 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 2.8, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 25.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 2049?
The PEG ratio of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 3.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hiwin Technologies Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2049 from its 52-week high?
Hiwin Technologies Corp trades at 325.50 TWD, about 21% below its 52-week high of 409.50 TWD and 80% above the low of 181.00 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 73.78 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hiwin Technologies Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Techtronic Industries Company, Snap-on Incorporated, RBC Bearings Incorporated, Lincoln Electric Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hiwin Technologies Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 325.50 TWD, calculated fair value 73.78 TWD (−77%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2049 calculated?
We run Hiwin Technologies Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 73.78 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hiwin Technologies Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 325.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 73.78 TWD, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hiwin Technologies Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (91.65 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) come from?
Earnings per share at Hiwin Technologies Corp grew −0.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hiwin Technologies Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The market capitalisation of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 106B TWD (≈ $3.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 4.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Earnings per share at Hiwin Technologies Corp are 4.31 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 75.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The dividend yield of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 0.6% (payout 46.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The net margin of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
The operating margin of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Revenue at Hiwin Technologies Corp is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Earnings per share at Hiwin Technologies Corp are growing +39.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) carry?
The net debt of Hiwin Technologies Corp is 2.6B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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