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Zall Group Ltd (2098) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Zall Group Ltd HK$0.09, price HK$0.07, upside +16.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG9888C1125

ZG Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Zall Group Ltd

2098 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value HK$0.0861 · Undervalued (+16.4%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.6000 HK$0.0570 Fair Value HK$0.0861 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0570 – HK$0.6000 · fair‑value band HK$0.0734 – HK$0.1047 · the HK$0.0740 price screens below the HK$0.0861 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Zall Smart Commerce Group Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the supply chain management and trading businesses in the People's Republic of China and Singapore. It operates in two segments, Property Development and Related Services; and Supply Chain Management and Trading.

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Zall Smart Commerce Group Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the supply chain management and trading businesses in the People's Republic of China and Singapore. It operates in two segments, Property Development and Related Services; and Supply Chain Management and Trading. The company's assets portfolio comprises logistic units, e-commerce malls, wholesale shopping malls, and offices. It also develops, sells, and operates large-scale consumer product-focus wholesale shopping malls; and provides related value-added business, such as warehousing and logistics services. In addition, the company trades in agricultural products, chemical materials, plastic raw materials, consumer goods, black and non"ferrous metals, etc.; and offers trade-related supply chain financial services. Further, it engages in the provision of e-commerce, financial services, and warehousing and logistics services for online and offline customers; sale of properties and related services; and sale of retail shops and auxiliary facilities units, as well as rental of investment properties. Additionally, the company is involved in B2B trading services, supply chain services, and digital technology cloud services. The company was formerly known as Zall Group Ltd. and changed its name to Zall Smart Commerce Group Ltd. in June 2018. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Wuhan, the People's Republic of China. Zall Smart Commerce Group Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Zall Development Investment Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Zall Group Ltd (2098) currently trades at HK$0.0740, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0861, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$0.7300 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$0.0740 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.2400, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0734 (bear) to HK$0.1047 (bull), the price of HK$0.0740 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Zall Group Ltd reported revenue of 155B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was 147M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.0B (≈ $133M) · P/E ratio 7.4 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin 0.0% · Revenue (TTM) 155B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 16%, 2098 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.0734 Fair Value HK$0.0861 Bull HK$0.1047
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.9300 HK$1.16 HK$1.52 78
Owner Earnings HK$1.09 HK$1.60 HK$2.50 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.9300 HK$1.35 HK$1.91 69
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$1.09 HK$1.60 HK$2.50 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.9300 HK$1.35 HK$1.91 69
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.9400 HK$1.33 HK$1.96 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0900 HK$0.6600 HK$0.9200 61
Lynch FV HK$0.3400 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6300 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6100 63
P/B Multiple HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6600 HK$0.8900 HK$1.33 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.9300 HK$1.16 HK$1.52 78
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.8100 HK$0.7300 HK$0.6800 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +65.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.6% vs −23.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 64% above its own trend.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside +16.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Return on assets −0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −31.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.06× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)55 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)3 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)91 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zall Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2098

Frequently asked questions

Is Zall Group Ltd (2098) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0861 versus a price of HK$0.0740, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2098?
Our model-based fair value for Zall Group Ltd is HK$0.0861 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0740.
What is the quality score of 2098?
Zall Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0861 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0734, optimistic scenario HK$0.1047. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zall Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0861, about +16% upside versus a price of HK$0.0740 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0734, optimistic scenario HK$0.1047. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Zall Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 155B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zall Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2098 use?
Our models discount Zall Group Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zall Group Ltd that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zall Group Ltd (2098) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zall Group Ltd grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zall Group Ltd (2098) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zall Group Ltd (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.17 %: that much free cash flow Zall Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zall Group Ltd it is HK$0.0861 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0740. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zall Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2098 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0740, fair value HK$0.0861, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2098?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0740); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0861). For Zall Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0121 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zall Group Ltd worth?
The market values Zall Group Ltd at about HK$1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0740; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0861 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2098?
Our models span a range for Zall Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0734, base HK$0.0861, optimistic HK$0.1047 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0740). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2098?
Zall Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.0861 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zall Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.7%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2098 from its 52-week high?
Zall Group Ltd trades at HK$0.0740, about 58% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1780 and 30% above the low of HK$0.0570 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0861 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zall Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zall Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0740, calculated fair value HK$0.0861 (+16%), Quality Score 47/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2098 calculated?
We run Zall Group Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0861, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Zall Group Ltd currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0740. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0861, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zall Group Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Zall Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
The market capitalisation of Zall Group Ltd is HK$1.0B (≈ $133M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Earnings per share at Zall Group Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
The net margin of Zall Group Ltd is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zall Group Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zall Group Ltd is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
The operating margin of Zall Group Ltd is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Revenue at Zall Group Ltd is growing −31.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zall Group Ltd (2098)?
Earnings per share at Zall Group Ltd are growing −36.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zall Group Ltd (2098) carry?
The net debt of Zall Group Ltd is 5.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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