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Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · SA · Market cap 21.4B SAR

SA Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef 2223 · SR
Price137.00 SAR
Fair Value57.65 SAR
Upside-57.9%
Quality71/100
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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth
✓Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 66/100

Risks

!Trades 58% ABOVE our fair value of 57.65 SAR
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.75% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Wide moat 66/100
Evidence: High Range 39.89 SAR – 76.10 SAR Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price +4.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.

Fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, review alerts and the diversification check: 14 days of Pro free, no card.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (76.10 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range (39.89 SAR to 76.10 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

154.38 SAR 75.28 SAR Fair Value 57.65 SAR Dec 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

44‑month range 75.28 SAR – 154.38 SAR · fair‑value band 39.89 SAR – 76.10 SAR · the 137.00 SAR price screens above the 57.65 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) currently trades at 137.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 57.65 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef generated revenue of 9.3B SAR at a net margin of 14.8%. Revenue grew 52.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.4%. Net debt stands at 95.5M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 39.89 SAR (bear case) to 76.10 SAR (bull case); at 137.00 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -58%, 2223 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 68.89 SAR 94.81 SAR 129.90 SAR 80
Residual Income 31.98 SAR 38.76 SAR 84.83 SAR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 49.71 SAR 70.93 SAR 93.65 SAR 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 66.86 SAR 94.49 SAR 133.42 SAR 38
Owner Earnings 44.90 SAR 63.17 SAR 88.93 SAR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 49.71 SAR 69.95 SAR 94.36 SAR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 42.72 SAR 57.63 SAR 73.71 SAR 41
5Y P/E Exit 55.27 SAR 79.75 SAR 103.73 SAR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 54.44 SAR 73.60 SAR 96.39 SAR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 51.24 SAR 65.31 SAR 81.46 SAR 37
10Y P/E Exit 59.05 SAR 80.19 SAR 103.16 SAR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 34.57 SAR 76.64 SAR 97.83 SAR 54
PEG = 1.0 12.31 SAR 17.59 SAR 22.86 SAR 46
EPV 47.36 SAR 54.92 SAR 61.53 SAR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 37.46 SAR 59.96 SAR 85.23 SAR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 37.46 SAR 54.43 SAR 73.48 SAR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 53.37 SAR 71.17 SAR 88.96 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 43.34 SAR 57.79 SAR 72.24 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 36.77 SAR 49.02 SAR 61.28 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 41.69 SAR 54.92 SAR 68.15 SAR 53
EV/EBITDA 32.73 SAR 42.97 SAR 53.21 SAR 54
EV/Revenue 42.45 SAR 59.79 SAR 77.13 SAR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 13.62 SAR 18.25 SAR 27.23 SAR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 68.89 SAR 94.81 SAR 129.90 SAR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 49.71 SAR 70.93 SAR 93.65 SAR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 31.98 SAR 38.76 SAR 84.83 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 49.05 SAR 59.48 SAR 70.68 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 40.98 SAR 58.54 SAR 76.10 SAR 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (70.93 SAR) versus Asset-Based (18.25 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 9.3B SAR
Revenue growth (YoY) +52.0%
Net margin 14.8%
Return on equity 21.4%
Free cash flow 1.0B SAR FY2025
P/E ratio 25.9
More key figures
Operating margin 22.0%
EPS (TTM) 5.29 SAR
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +199%
Net debt 95.5M SAR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef produces and sells base oils and various by-products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa, Egypt, Singapore, the United States, South Korea, Cyprus, and internationally.

Full company description

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef produces and sells base oils and various by-products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa, Egypt, Singapore, the United States, South Korea, Cyprus, and internationally. It offers various group I and group II base oils; and byproducts, such as asphalt, marine heavy fuel oil, slack wax, extract, and sulfur, as well as white products, including ultra-low sulfur diesel, naphtha, and drilling fluid. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is a subsidiary of Saudi Arabian Oil Company.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef reported revenue of 8.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 8.8B SAR in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 855M SAR in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
8.1B SAR
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.6%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.5%
Revenue −2.2%/yr
FY21 8.8B SAR
FY22 10.6B SAR
FY23 9.5B SAR
FY24 10.0B SAR
FY25 8.1B SAR
Net income −13.1%/yr
FY21 1.5B SAR
FY22 2.0B SAR
FY23 1.5B SAR
FY24 972M SAR
FY25 855M SAR

2223 screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

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Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef · Fair Value
57.65 SAR −58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2223

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 116 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −58% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 52% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.14× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 4.68× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 5.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 16
FUTURE100 · sector 15
PAST86 · sector 33
HEALTH93 · sector 83
DIVIDEND51 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,329 ₹751.26 -43%
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $330.21 $127.32 -61%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $348.25 $133.18 -62%
Phillips 66 PSX $225.58 $99.41 -56%
Neste Oyj NESTE €29.61 €3.83 -87%
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 70.20 TWD 15.32 TWD -78%
SK Innovation Co 096770 122,400 KRW 53,541 KRW -56%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹310.30 ₹846.81 +173%
S-Oil Corporation 010950 140,900 KRW 19,441 KRW -86%
HD Hyundai Co 267250 234,500 KRW 286,077 KRW +22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 57.65 SAR versus a price of 137.00 SAR, about −58% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2223?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 57.65 SAR (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 137.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2223?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2223?
The net profit margin of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is about 14.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef pay a dividend?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.75% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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