Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef SAR 58.54, price SAR 128, upside -54.2%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range 75.28 SAR – 154.38 SAR · fair‑value band 39.89 SAR – 76.10 SAR · the 127.70 SAR price screens above the 58.54 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef produces and sells base oils and various by-products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa, Egypt, Singapore, the United States, South Korea, Cyprus, and internationally.
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Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef produces and sells base oils and various by-products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa, Egypt, Singapore, the United States, South Korea, Cyprus, and internationally. It offers various group I and group II base oils; and byproducts, such as asphalt, marine heavy fuel oil, slack wax, extract, and sulfur, as well as white products, including ultra-low sulfur diesel, naphtha, and drilling fluid. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is a subsidiary of Saudi Arabian Oil Company.
Stock analysis
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) currently trades at 127.70 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 58.54 SAR, 54.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 71.07 SAR per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 127.70 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 18.25 SAR, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 39.89 SAR (bear) to 76.10 SAR (bull), the price of 127.70 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef reported revenue of 8.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 8.8B SAR in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 855M SAR in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.5B SAR (≈ $5.7B) · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) 8.21 SAR · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 29.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −54%, 2223 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 39.89 SARFair Value 58.54 SARBull 76.10 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5330 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth52.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.6× · Pricier than median
P/B4.69× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.31× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF20.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2223
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 58.54 SAR versus a price of 127.70 SAR, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2223?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 58.54 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 127.70 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2223?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 58.54 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 39.89 SAR, optimistic scenario 76.10 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 58.54 SAR, about −54% upside versus a price of 127.70 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 39.89 SAR, optimistic scenario 76.10 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef pay a dividend?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef would have to grow free cash flow by +7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2223 use?
Our models discount Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef that is +7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef grew +20.5 % a year. The price currently implies +7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (+7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.82 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef it is 58.54 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 127.70 SAR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2223 trades above its calculated fair value: price 127.70 SAR, fair value 58.54 SAR, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2223?
No. The price is what the market pays today (127.70 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (58.54 SAR). For Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef the two are 69.16 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef worth?
The market values Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef at about 21.5B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 127.70 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 58.54 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2223?
Our models span a range for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef: cautious scenario 39.89 SAR, base 58.54 SAR, optimistic 76.10 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 127.70 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2223?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 58.54 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 29.7%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2223 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef trades at 127.70 SAR, about 10% below its 52-week high of 141.40 SAR and 56% above the low of 82.02 SAR (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 58.54 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 127.70 SAR, calculated fair value 58.54 SAR (−54%), Quality Score 71/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2223 calculated?
We run Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 58.54 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 127.70 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 58.54 SAR, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (76.10 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (39.89 SAR to 76.10 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 21.5B SAR (≈ $5.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef are 8.21 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 5.9% (payout 91.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The net margin of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 17.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
The operating margin of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Revenue at Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is growing +52.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef are growing +199% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (2223) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is 95.5M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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