Fourth Milling Co. (2286) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Fourth Milling Co. SAR 5.00, price SAR 3.75, upside +33.2%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Fourth Milling Co.
2286 · SRUndervalued, solidFair Value upside is positive and quality is strong.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range 3.23 SAR – 4.73 SAR · fair‑value band 3.49 SAR – 7.16 SAR · the 3.75 SAR price screens below the 5.00 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Fourth Milling Company engages in the production of flour, feed, bran, and wheat derivatives in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.
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Fourth Milling Company engages in the production of flour, feed, bran, and wheat derivatives in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company packs and mills wheat, maize, barley, flour, meal, and bulgur wheat, as well as rice, dried leguminous vegetables, and edible nuts; oats production; production of flour from rice; manufacture of flour and dough for bakeries, breakfast grain food in flakes, popcorn, starch from corn and potatoes; and corn milling. It also manufactures bread and bread products by automatic bakeries, pies, cakes, biscuits, pastry flakes, frozen bakery products, concentrated fodder, cattle fodder; making of eastern and traditional desserts, and second plant products as animal feed; preparation, milling, and pressing of animal feed; and production of salt lick stones for animal feed. In addition, the company is involved in the manufacturing non-medicinal feed additives, poultry fodder, bird fodder, pet feeds, and freight transport by road; operation of storage facilities for goods; loading and unloading of goods, animal food, and feed stores; and storage in warehouses of grain silos, flour, and agricultural products. Further, it engages in the wholesale of barley, grain, livestock feed for pharmaceutical feed additives, feed and non-medicinal feed additives, bakery products, and food and beverage; retail sale of bakery products and sugar confectionery, and barley; and trade of special and healthy food. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Dammam, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Gulf Flour Milling Industrial Company operates as a subsidiary of Gulf Flour Milling Industrial Company.
Stock analysis
Fourth Milling Co. (2286) currently trades at 3.75 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.00 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 24.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 6.74 SAR per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the 3.75 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.9900 SAR, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.49 SAR (bear) to 7.16 SAR (bull), the price of 3.75 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Fourth Milling Co. reported revenue of 660M SAR in FY2025 versus 336M SAR in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was 201M SAR in FY2025, compounding +41.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0B SAR (≈ $542M) · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 3.08 · EPS (TTM) 0.3700 SAR · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 30.4% · Return on equity 27.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 33%, 2286 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare Fourth Milling Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 290 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Saudi Arabia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM | $80.38 | $38.02 | −53% |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.48 | ¥115.35 | +185% |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $108.14 | $56.75 | −48% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $50.98 | $37.06 | −27% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | −17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 205.60 | kr 280.90 | +37% |
| SalMar ASA SALM | kr 580.50 | kr 171.05 | −71% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 21.80 THB | 55.71 THB | +156% |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 32.58 MYR | 35.84 MYR | +10% |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥155.26 | ¥254.63 | +64% |
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