Fourth Milling Co. (2286) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · SA · Market cap 2.1B SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 5.85 SAR to 5.39 SAR (−7.9%) since Jul 31, 2026. Share price −1.7% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 33% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- A fairly wide model range (3.70 SAR to 7.25 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (22 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range 3.23 SAR – 4.73 SAR · fair‑value band 3.70 SAR – 7.25 SAR · the 4.05 SAR price screens below the 5.39 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Fourth Milling Co. (2286) currently trades at 4.05 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.39 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 33.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Fourth Milling Co. generated revenue of 670M SAR at a net margin of 30.1%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.1%. Net debt stands at 313M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 3.70 SAR (bear case) to 7.25 SAR (bull case); at 4.05 SAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 97% fair-value upside, at 33%, 2286 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (7.80 SAR) versus Asset-Based (0.9900 SAR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fourth Milling Company engages in the production of flour, feed, bran, and wheat derivatives in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.
Full company description
Fourth Milling Company engages in the production of flour, feed, bran, and wheat derivatives in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company packs and mills wheat, maize, barley, flour, meal, and bulgur wheat, as well as rice, dried leguminous vegetables, and edible nuts; oats production; production of flour from rice; manufacture of flour and dough for bakeries, breakfast grain food in flakes, popcorn, starch from corn and potatoes; and corn milling. It also manufactures bread and bread products by automatic bakeries, pies, cakes, biscuits, pastry flakes, frozen bakery products, concentrated fodder, cattle fodder; making of eastern and traditional desserts, and second plant products as animal feed; preparation, milling, and pressing of animal feed; and production of salt lick stones for animal feed. In addition, the company is involved in the manufacturing non-medicinal feed additives, poultry fodder, bird fodder, pet feeds, and freight transport by road; operation of storage facilities for goods; loading and unloading of goods, animal food, and feed stores; and storage in warehouses of grain silos, flour, and agricultural products. Further, it engages in the wholesale of barley, grain, livestock feed for pharmaceutical feed additives, feed and non-medicinal feed additives, bakery products, and food and beverage; retail sale of bakery products and sugar confectionery, and barley; and trade of special and healthy food. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Dammam, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Gulf Flour Milling Industrial Company operates as a subsidiary of Gulf Flour Milling Industrial Company.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fourth Milling Co. reported revenue of 660M SAR in FY2025 versus 336M SAR in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was 201M SAR in FY2025, compounding +41.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Farm Products · 298 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.15 | ¥47.42 | +18% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,150 IDR | 6,818 IDR | +116% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 21.90 THB | 43.24 THB | +97% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,805 IDR | 3,087 IDR | +71% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,350 IDR | 6,420 IDR | -13% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,260 IDR | 6,974 IDR | +209% |
| PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR | 1,890 IDR | 610.80 IDR | -68% |
| PT Nusantara Sawit Sejahtera Tbk NSSS | 860.00 IDR | 402.24 IDR | -53% |
| PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk SMAR | 5,625 IDR | 16,227 IDR | +188% |
| PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk DSNG | 1,320 IDR | 2,696 IDR | +104% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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