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Weichai Power Co Ltd (2338) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$295B (≈ $37.6B) · ISIN CNE1000004L9

What is Weichai Power Co Ltd really worth?

WP Weichai Power Co Ltd 2338 · HK
PriceHK$32.14
Fair ValueHK$28.51
Upside−11.3%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 13% above our fair value of HK$28.51.

As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of Weichai Power Co Ltd is HK$28.51 per share against a price of HK$32.14, so the fair value sits 11% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 4.8% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Weak on valuation: 23 out of 100

For context

·2.40% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$20.57 – HK$36.46

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from HK$28.46 to HK$28.51 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −9.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$44.66 HK$6.16 Fair Value HK$28.51 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$6.16 – HK$44.66 · fair‑value band HK$20.57 – HK$36.46 · the HK$32.14 price screens above the HK$28.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

Weichai Power Co Ltd (2338) currently trades at HK$32.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$28.51, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$67.68 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$32.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.23, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Weichai Power Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$237B at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue grew 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at HK$28.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$20.57 (bear case) to HK$36.46 (bull case); at HK$32.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 136% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −11%, 2338 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.3891 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV HK$19.03 HK$21.36 HK$23.43 74
FCF DCF HK$51.37 HK$79.26 HK$170.44 73
Growth DCF HK$48.76 HK$95.28 HK$173.43 72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$51.37 HK$79.26 HK$170.44 73
Owner Earnings HK$39.09 HK$83.75 HK$181.71 68
5Y Revenue Exit HK$29.83 HK$44.33 HK$74.40 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$41.38 HK$67.68 HK$119.21 70
5Y P/E Exit HK$32.74 HK$60.67 HK$97.83 66
10Y Revenue Exit HK$35.64 HK$64.30 HK$80.29 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$44.95 HK$89.74 HK$166.77 63
10Y P/E Exit HK$38.50 HK$70.70 HK$121.53 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$8.38 HK$58.42 HK$81.98 61
Lynch FV HK$30.18 HK$43.12 HK$56.05 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$30.18 HK$43.12 HK$56.05 55
EPV HK$19.03 HK$21.36 HK$23.43 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.60 HK$14.41 HK$24.25 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.60 HK$11.80 HK$15.02 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$19.40 HK$25.87 HK$32.34 63
P/S Multiple HK$15.71 HK$20.94 HK$26.18 58
P/B Multiple HK$15.71 HK$20.94 HK$26.18 55
EV/EBIT HK$26.30 HK$33.12 HK$39.94 66
EV/EBITDA HK$36.43 HK$46.62 HK$56.82 67
EV/Revenue HK$20.44 HK$26.70 HK$32.96 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.39 HK$7.23 HK$10.79 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$48.76 HK$95.28 HK$173.43 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$32.15 HK$49.92 HK$87.37 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$10.03 HK$11.74 HK$22.65 70
ROIC Compounder HK$24.18 HK$36.33 HK$47.81 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$39.48 HK$56.39 HK$73.31 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$67.68) versus Asset-Based (HK$7.23). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 22.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.06 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.34 price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.5
Dividend yield 2.4% payout 57.5%
Net margin 4.7% FY2025
Return on equity 11.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 8.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$237B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.9% 3y avg +8.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +16.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$22.0B FY2025
Net debt HK$28.2B FY2025 · ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 41
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. engages in the automobile and equipment manufacturing industry in China and internationally. The company operates through the Engines, Automobiles and Auto Parts, Agricultural Equipment, and Intelligent Logistics segments.

Full company description

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. engages in the automobile and equipment manufacturing industry in China and internationally. The company operates through the Engines, Automobiles and Auto Parts, Agricultural Equipment, and Intelligent Logistics segments. It offers engines for trucks, buses, construction machinery, and agricultural tractors and harvesters; energy and power solutions, including generator sets and industrial power products; transmission, PTO, and auto transmission products; axles for trucks, buses, and construction machineries; and hydraulics comprising variable displacement pumps, VT modular valves, electronic units, and excavator and agriculture machine powertrain systems. The company also provides new energy products, such as pure electric drive, pure electric gearbox power, electric drive axle power, hybrid power, power battery, and range-extender systems; commercial vehicles and auto parts; and after-market products, which include parts, oil, and remanufacture. In addition, it engages in forklift production, warehouse technology, and supply chain solution services, as well as industrial truck and services materials handling. The company offers its products under the Weichai Power Engine, Fast Gear Transmission, Hande Axle, Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck, and Weichai Lovol Smart Agriculture brands. Weichai Power Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Weifang, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Weichai Power Co Ltd reported revenue of 226B CNY in FY2025 versus 204B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was 10.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 63/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$226B
Latest YoY
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+50.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.8% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+1.4%
Dividend yield2.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 1.4% vs 10Y 15.0%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.3% (2020) → 6.1% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop73% (2015) · in HKD
Revenue +2.6%/yr
FY21 204B CNY
FY22 175B CNY
FY23 214B CNY
FY24 216B CNY
FY25 226B CNY
Net income +2.9%/yr
FY21 9.5B CNY
FY22 4.9B CNY
FY23 9.0B CNY
FY24 11.4B CNY
FY25 10.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +16.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.7 %

of which total revenue +11.5 % · buybacks/dilution +1.1 %

EBIT margin +2.5 %
Tax rate +1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

2338 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Weichai Power Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2338.HK

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −8% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.20× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.16× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.24× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.93× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE23 · sector 23
FUTURE45 · sector 27
PAST46 · sector 21
HEALTH90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND48 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $197.11 $251.77 +28%
BYD Company 81211 HK$73.50 HK$46.64 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €46.95 €106.16 +126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3 €81.30 €248.34 +205%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Weichai Power Co Ltd (2338) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$28.51 versus a price of HK$32.14, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2338?
Our model-based fair value for Weichai Power Co Ltd is HK$28.51 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$32.14.
What is the quality score of 2338?
Weichai Power Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Weichai Power Co Ltd (2338)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$28.51 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$20.57, optimistic scenario HK$36.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Weichai Power Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$28.51, about −11% upside versus a price of HK$32.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$20.57, optimistic scenario HK$36.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Weichai Power Co Ltd (2338)?
Weichai Power Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$237B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2338?
The net profit margin of Weichai Power Co Ltd is about 4.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Weichai Power Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Weichai Power Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.40% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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