Launch Tech Co Ltd (2488) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$2.9B (≈ $364M) · ISIN CNE1000000V6

What is Launch Tech Co Ltd really worth?

LT Launch Tech Co Ltd 2488 · HK

PriceHK$7.00

Fair ValueHK$5.54

Upside−20.9%

Quality82/100

A strong business, but trading 26% above our fair value of HK$5.54.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Launch Tech Co Ltd is HK$5.54 per share against a price of HK$7.00, so the fair value sits 21% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.6 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 16.3% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

✓Wide moat 73/100

Risks

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on valuation: 5 out of 100

For context

·10.29% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$4.22 – HK$6.86

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from HK$15.81 to HK$5.54 (−65.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +1.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.12 – HK$13.51 · fair‑value band HK$4.22 – HK$6.86 · the HK$7.00 price screens above the HK$5.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Launch Tech Co Ltd (2488) currently trades at HK$7.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.54, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$19.68 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$7.00 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.34, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Launch Tech Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.1B at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$273M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$4.22 (bear case) to HK$6.86 (bull case); at HK$7.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −21%, 2488 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$15.48 HK$26.21 HK$43.98 78

Growth DCF HK$15.37 HK$25.15 HK$40.77 77

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$11.84 HK$18.88 HK$27.49 75

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$15.48 HK$26.21 HK$43.98 78

Owner Earnings HK$12.29 HK$20.64 HK$34.46 74

5Y Revenue Exit HK$9.23 HK$13.55 HK$19.10 73

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$11.84 HK$18.88 HK$27.49 75

5Y P/E Exit HK$15.79 HK$26.97 HK$39.64 70

10Y Revenue Exit HK$11.13 HK$15.88 HK$22.60 67

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$12.98 HK$19.68 HK$29.42 68

10Y P/E Exit HK$15.54 HK$25.45 HK$39.28 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$6.67 HK$30.13 HK$41.31 64

Lynch FV HK$7.86 HK$11.24 HK$14.61 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$7.86 HK$11.24 HK$14.61 57

EPV HK$9.14 HK$10.41 HK$11.51 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$7.67 HK$15.29 HK$23.16 67

DDM Multi-Stage HK$7.67 HK$13.22 HK$16.14 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$16.19 HK$21.59 HK$26.98 63

P/S Multiple HK$5.41 HK$7.21 HK$9.02 58

P/B Multiple HK$10.46 HK$13.94 HK$17.43 55

EV/EBIT HK$14.37 HK$18.78 HK$23.20 66

EV/EBITDA HK$10.80 HK$14.03 HK$17.26 67

EV/Revenue HK$6.16 HK$8.32 HK$10.49 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$1.74 HK$2.34 HK$3.49 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$15.37 HK$25.15 HK$40.77 77

Rev-Margin DCF HK$9.23 HK$13.61 HK$19.25 73

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$5.61 HK$6.68 HK$18.88 67

ROIC Compounder HK$9.98 HK$12.44 HK$15.32 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$13.09 HK$18.70 HK$24.31 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$19.68) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.34). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 7.3 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.18 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.4700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3

Dividend yield 10.3% payout 153%

Net margin 16.3% FY2025

Return on equity 28.2% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4% avg 5y

Operating margin 14.3% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.1B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +14.2% 3y avg +21.5%

EPS growth (YoY) −19.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$417M FY2025

Net cash HK$273M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 82/100

Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 82

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 46

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 77

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 92

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 87

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 75

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 22

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 2

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 91

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Launch Tech Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services to the automotive aftermarket and the automobile industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Automotive Diagnosis, Europe Overseas sales, and U.S. Overseas Sales. The company is involved in the research and development, production, and sale of automotive diagnostic and inspection products; car diagnosis, testing, and sales of maintenance equipment; and software and information technology services. It also engages in sales of computer software and hardware, electronic products and technical information consulting services; research and experimental development; internet and related services; professional technology services; as well as sales and services of auto diagnostic products. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Launch Tech Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 344M CNY in FY2025, compounding +38.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$2.1B

Latest YoY

+12.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+21.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+14.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+13.9%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+47.0% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+36.7%

Dividend yield10.3%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 36.7% vs 10Y 31.4%, picking up

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11.0% (2020) → 16.3% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop1,180% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

Revenue +11.9%/yr

FY21 1.3B CNY

FY22 1.2B CNY

FY23 1.6B CNY

FY24 1.9B CNY

FY25 2.1B CNY

Net income +38.9%/yr

FY21 92.4M CNY

FY22 328M CNY

FY23 169M CNY

FY24 340M CNY

FY25 344M CNY

2488 screens 26% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Launch Tech Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$5.54 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Launch Tech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2488.HK

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 641 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 82 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −21% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 28% · Top 25%

Return on assets 11% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 14% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 10.3% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 0.13× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 2.33× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.35× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE5 · sector 14

FUTURE71 · sector 21

PAST100 · sector 28

HEALTH94 · sector 95

DIVIDEND100 · sector 32

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY	$88.50	$47.50	−46%
AutoZone, Inc AZO	$2,983	$2,287	−23%
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330	450,500 KRW	643,909 KRW	+43%
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Magna International Inc MGA	$65.57	$68.17	+4%
Genuine Parts Company GPC	$137.51	$58.07	−58%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD	₹48,700	₹11,534	−76%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689	¥45.82	¥28.28	−38%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Launch Tech Co Ltd (2488) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.54 versus a price of HK$7.00, about −21% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 2488?

Our model-based fair value for Launch Tech Co Ltd is HK$5.54 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$7.00.

What is the quality score of 2488?

Launch Tech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Launch Tech Co Ltd (2488)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.54 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.22, optimistic scenario HK$6.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Launch Tech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$5.54, about −21% upside versus a price of HK$7.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.22, optimistic scenario HK$6.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Launch Tech Co Ltd (2488)?

Launch Tech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2488?

The net profit margin of Launch Tech Co Ltd is about 16.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Launch Tech Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Launch Tech Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.29% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).

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