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Hesai Group Class B (2525) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hesai Group Class B HK$5.10, price HK$15.34, upside -66.8%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · HK

HG Some data Sep 27, 2026

Hesai Group Class B

2525 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$5.10 · Strongly overvalued (−66.8%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +109.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 29 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$29.25 HK$14.36 Fair Value HK$5.10 Sep 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

13‑month range HK$14.36 – HK$29.25 · fair‑value band HK$5.10 – HK$5.28 · the HK$15.34 price screens above the HK$5.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally.

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Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Hesai Group Class B (2525) currently trades at HK$15.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.10, 66.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$18.82 per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$15.34 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$2.19, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$5.10 (bear) to HK$5.28 (bull), the price of HK$15.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hesai Group Class B reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 111M CNY in FY2021, a compound +128.3%/yr. Reported net income was 436M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$21.6B (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 36.9 · P/S ratio 5.31 · EPS (TTM) HK$3.59 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −67%, 2525 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$5.10 Fair Value HK$5.10 Bull HK$5.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$2.70 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$2.07 HK$2.19 HK$2.30 74
Residual Income HK$6.31 HK$6.40 HK$6.73 74
Owner Earnings HK$4.48 HK$8.37 HK$16.24 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$4.48 HK$8.37 HK$16.24 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.75 HK$19.21 HK$26.96 61
Lynch FV HK$9.93 HK$14.18 HK$18.43 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$9.93 HK$14.18 HK$18.43 55
EPV HK$2.07 HK$2.19 HK$2.30 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.39 HK$4.76 HK$7.21 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.39 HK$4.11 HK$5.03 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.68 HK$8.91 HK$11.14 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.53 HK$3.38 HK$4.22 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.17 HK$6.89 HK$8.61 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.84 HK$3.35 HK$3.87 66
EV/EBITDA HK$3.36 HK$4.05 HK$4.74 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.33 HK$2.78 HK$3.23 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.16 HK$5.58 HK$8.33 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$6.31 HK$6.40 HK$6.73 74
ROIC Compounder HK$2.07 HK$2.19 HK$2.30 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$13.18 HK$18.82 HK$24.47 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 24
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 14
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+97.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−22.5% (2020) → 4.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

2525 screens overvalued: fair value 67% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 661 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −66.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.2% · Below median
Return on assets 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 29.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.58× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)29 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)27 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥52.47 ¥78.11 +49%
Knorr-Bremse AG KBX €99.20 €72.88 −27%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹165.71 ₹96.97 −41%
Genuine Parts Company GPC $126.95 $57.98 −54%
Magna International Inc MGA $64.46 $69.37 +8%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹48,250 ₹25,213 −48%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥46.44 ¥28.28 −39%

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Hesai Group Class B · Fair Value
HK$5.10 −67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hesai Group Class B Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2525

Frequently asked questions

Is Hesai Group Class B (2525) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.10 versus a price of HK$15.34, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2525?
Our model-based fair value for Hesai Group Class B is HK$5.10 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$15.34.
What is the quality score of 2525?
Hesai Group Class B has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.10 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.10, optimistic scenario HK$5.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hesai Group Class B stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.10, about −67% upside versus a price of HK$15.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.10, optimistic scenario HK$5.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Hesai Group Class B reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Hesai Group Class B pay a dividend?
Hesai Group Class B currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hesai Group Class B it is HK$5.10 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$15.34. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hesai Group Class B stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2525 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$15.34, fair value HK$5.10, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2525?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$15.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.10). For Hesai Group Class B the two are HK$10.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hesai Group Class B worth?
The market values Hesai Group Class B at about HK$21.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$15.34; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2525?
Our models span a range for Hesai Group Class B: cautious scenario HK$5.10, base HK$5.10, optimistic HK$5.28 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$15.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2525?
Hesai Group Class B trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$5.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 2525?
The PEG ratio of Hesai Group Class B is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hesai Group Class B (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2525 from its 52-week high?
Hesai Group Class B trades at HK$15.34, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$28.30 and 7% above the low of HK$14.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hesai Group Class B?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hesai Group Class B stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$15.34, calculated fair value HK$5.10 (−67%), Quality Score 36/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2525 calculated?
We run Hesai Group Class B through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hesai Group Class B itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$15.34. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.10, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hesai Group Class B right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$5.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (HK$5.10 to HK$5.28), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Hesai Group Class B

How large is the market capitalisation of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The market capitalisation of Hesai Group Class B is HK$21.6B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hesai Group Class B is 5.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Earnings per share at Hesai Group Class B are HK$3.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The dividend yield of Hesai Group Class B is 1.4% (payout 5.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The net margin of Hesai Group Class B is 14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hesai Group Class B is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hesai Group Class B is −6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
The operating margin of Hesai Group Class B is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Revenue at Hesai Group Class B is growing +29.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hesai Group Class B (2525)?
Earnings per share at Hesai Group Class B are growing −13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hesai Group Class B (2525) generate?
The free cash flow of Hesai Group Class B is −225M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hesai Group Class B (2525) hold?
Hesai Group Class B holds more cash than debt, 664M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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