Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd HK$4.79, price HK$6.37, upside -24.7%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range HK$6.01 – HK$283.00 · fair‑value band HK$3.16 – HK$5.99 · the HK$6.37 price screens above the HK$4.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Shanghai REFIRE Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, and sale of hydrogen fuel cell systems, hydrogen production systems, and related components in Mainland China and internationally.
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Shanghai REFIRE Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, and sale of hydrogen fuel cell systems, hydrogen production systems, and related components in Mainland China and internationally. The company provides fuel cell engineering and technical services; and electricity to hydrogen and hydrogen to electricity technologies, as well as after-sales services; and sales of hydrogen energy vehicles. In addition, it is involved in technology development; manufacture of bipolar plates; sale of components; research and development, manufacture; and sale of fuel cell stacks and fuel cell stack technology. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570) currently trades at HK$6.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.79, 24.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$3.16 (bear) to HK$5.99 (bull), the price of HK$6.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd reported revenue of 580M CNY in FY2025 versus 524M CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was −587M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.0B (≈ $255M) · P/S ratio 3.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$−3.86 · Net margin −101% · Return on equity −34.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.7% · Operating margin −75.4% · Revenue (TTM) 595M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 96% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −25%, 2570 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.16Fair Value HK$4.79Bull HK$5.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−85.0% (2021) → −61.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 800 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−24.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−8.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−101.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−75.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.14× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.43× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2570
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.79 versus a price of HK$6.37, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2570?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is HK$4.79 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.37.
What is the quality score of 2570?
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.79 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.16, optimistic scenario HK$5.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.79, about −25% upside versus a price of HK$6.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.16, optimistic scenario HK$5.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 595M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd it is HK$4.79 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$6.37. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2570 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$6.37, fair value HK$4.79, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2570?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$6.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.79). For Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd the two are HK$1.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd at about HK$2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$6.37; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2570?
Our models span a range for Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.16, base HK$4.79, optimistic HK$5.99 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$6.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −34.6%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2570 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd trades at HK$6.37, about 96% below its 52-week high of HK$155.90 and 6% above the low of HK$6.01 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$6.37, calculated fair value HK$4.79 (−25%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2570 calculated?
We run Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$6.37. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.79, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$5.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (HK$3.16 to HK$5.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is HK$2.0B (≈ $255M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is 3.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd are HK$−3.86. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
The net margin of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is −101% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is −34.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is −12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
The operating margin of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is −75.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570)?
Revenue at Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is −467M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd (2570) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd is 960M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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