Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (2611) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$263B (≈ $33.5B) · ISIN CNE100002FK9
What is Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$16.92.
As of Sep 1, 2026, the fair value of Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is HK$16.92 per share against a price of HK$15.42, so the fair value sits 10% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +5.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.47 – HK$17.88 · fair‑value band HK$12.69 – HK$21.15 · the HK$15.42 price screens below the HK$16.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd (2611) currently trades at HK$15.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$16.92, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 17 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$66.6B at a net margin of 33.0%. Revenue grew 64.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at HK$917B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$12.69 (bear case) to HK$21.15 (bull case); at HK$15.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 10%, 2611 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1926 per share, which is 1.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$17.30) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.64). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, and investment management services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
Full company description
Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, and investment management services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It offers securities and futures brokerage, financial products, investment advisory, stock pledging, margin financing and securities lending, and agreed securities repurchase and other services; and sponsorship, equity and debt underwriting, structured debt financing, M&A financial advisory services, and diversified corporate solutions to corporate and government clients. The company also provides research and institutional brokerage services, such as prime brokers, seat leasing, custody and outsourcing, and QFII and other services to institutional clients; trading and investment services, including investment transactions in stocks, fixed income, foreign exchange, large commodities, and their derivative financial instruments, as well as integrated financial solutions for clients' investment, financing, and risk management; and equity investment services. In addition, it offers asset and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and brokerage, research, leasing, and corporate financing services; logistics and catering management; and information consulting services. Further, the company engages in the real estate and property management; warehousing; investment and corporate management consulting; venture capital investment and management; industrial investment; administrative management; foreign exchange dealing; and securities trading activities. The company was formerly known as Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. in April 2025. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 91.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 52.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was 27.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +15.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.4 % · buybacks/dilution −5.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Guotai Haitong Securities leverages AI fintech to boost high-quality development of capital market
- Xinhua Silk Road: Guotai Haitong Securities leverages AI fintech to boost high-quality development of capital market
- Guotai Haitong Began to See "1+1>2" Synergy in 2025 Results
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 455 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
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