2638 (2638) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · Market cap HK$54.8B

2 2638 2638 · HK

PriceHK$6.20

Fair ValueHK$4.06

Upside-34.5%

Quality59/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$2.57 – HK$5.24

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −4.6% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$5.41 – HK$6.87 · fair‑value band HK$2.57 – HK$5.24 · the HK$6.20 price screens above the HK$4.06 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

2638 (2638) currently trades at HK$6.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.06 — implying the stock looks roughly 34.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, 2638 generated revenue of HK$12.1B at a net margin of 26.0%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. Net debt stands at HK$50.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$12.1B

Revenue growth (YoY) +1.1%

Net margin 26.0%

Return on equity 6.4%

Free cash flow HK$3.4B FY2025

P/E ratio 17.7

More key figures

Operating margin 41.3%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.1100

Dividend yield 5.2%

EPS growth (YoY) -0.7%

Net debt HK$50.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

2638 reported revenue of HK$12.1B in FY2025 versus HK$11.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +1.7%/yr

FY21 HK$11.3B

FY22 HK$10.8B

FY23 HK$11.4B

FY24 HK$12.1B

FY25 HK$12.1B

Net income +1.2%/yr

FY21 HK$2.9B

FY22 HK$3.0B

FY23 HK$3.2B

FY24 HK$3.1B

FY25 HK$3.1B

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Similar stocks

6 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE	$86.08	$30.24	-65%
The Southern Company SO	$94.02	$40.76	-57%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK	$121.82	$63.83	-48%
National Grid plc NGG	61,175 ARS	43,418 ARS	-29%
American Electric Power Company AEP	$130.30	$78.20	-40%
Dominion Energy, Inc D	$68.04	$38.74	-43%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 2638 (2638) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.06 versus a price of HK$6.20 — about −35% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 2638?

Our model-based fair value for 2638 is HK$4.06 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$6.20.

What is the quality score of 2638?

2638 has a Quality Score of 59/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 2638 (2638)?

2638 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2638?

The net profit margin of 2638 is about 26.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 26.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 2638 pay a dividend?

2638 currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.18% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.