HK Electric Investments Ltd (2638) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$54.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$4.06 to HK$3.43 (−15.5%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$4.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.62 to HK$4.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.72 – HK$6.87 · fair‑value band HK$1.62 – HK$4.83 · the HK$6.47 price screens above the HK$3.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HK Electric Investments Ltd (2638) currently trades at HK$6.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.43, implying the stock looks roughly 47.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HK Electric Investments Ltd generated revenue of HK$12.1B at a net margin of 26.0%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. Net debt stands at HK$50.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.62 (bear case) to HK$4.83 (bull case); at HK$6.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -47%, 2638 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$5.26) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.7900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity in Hong Kong Island and Lamma Island.
Full company description
HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity in Hong Kong Island and Lamma Island. The company operates coal-fired units, gas turbines and standby units, gas-fired combined-cycle units, solar power system, and wind turbine with an installed capacity of 3,083 megawatts. It also operated a transmission and distribution network of 7,143 kilometers, as well as served 599,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers. In addition, the company involved in the financing business. HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Limited was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HK Electric Investments Ltd reported revenue of HK$12.1B in FY2025 versus HK$11.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
2638 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is HK Electric Investments And HK Electric Investments (SEHK:2638) Fully Valued As Fuel Cost Pressures Rise?
- HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Is HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Limited's (HKG:2638) CEO Paid At A Competitive Rate?
- Don't Race Out To Buy HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Limited (HKG:2638) Just Because It's Going Ex-Dividend
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $85.78 | $32.94 | -62% |
| The Southern Company SO | $92.52 | $58.81 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $123.19 | $74.89 | -39% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,886 ARS | -27% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹339.45 | ₹375.02 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 244.80 PLN | 167.29 PLN | -32% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹269.45 | ₹252.77 | -6% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.81 | ¥6.73 | -24% |
| CLP Holdings 0002 | HK$77.90 | HK$42.12 | -46% |
| Tenaga Nasional Berhad 5347 | 14.58 MYR | 14.72 MYR | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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