Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Quantgroup Holding Ltd HK$8.92, price HK$3.80, upside +134.7%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Quantgroup Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates online marketplaces in the People's Republic of China.
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Quantgroup Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates online marketplaces in the People's Republic of China. The company offers Yangxiaomie, a consumer e-commerce platform that connects third-party marketplace suppliers with users across a range of retail categories, including consumer electronics, food and beverages, home appliances, cosmetics, jewelry, clothing, and personal daily care. It also provides Consumption Guide, a retail online-to-offline platform for automobile retailers that converts online traffic into offline showroom purchases and supports online automobile transactions. In addition, the company provides advertisement placement services. Quantgroup Holding Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685) currently trades at HK$3.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.92, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$12.03 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$3.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.82, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$6.69 (bear) to HK$11.15 (bull), the price of HK$3.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Quantgroup Holding Ltd reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 475M CNY in FY2022, a compound +29.6%/yr. Reported net income was 195M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.0B (≈ $249M) · P/E ratio 24.9 · P/S ratio 4.70 · Net margin 18.9% · Return on equity 98.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.5% · Operating margin 11.1% · Revenue (TTM) 964M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 135%, 2685 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.69Fair Value HK$8.92Bull HK$11.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside+134.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)98.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets26.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.92 versus a price of HK$3.80, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2685?
Our model-based fair value for Quantgroup Holding Ltd is HK$8.92 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.80.
What is the quality score of 2685?
Quantgroup Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.92 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.69, optimistic scenario HK$11.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Quantgroup Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.92, about +135% upside versus a price of HK$3.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.69, optimistic scenario HK$11.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
Quantgroup Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 964M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Quantgroup Holding Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +29.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2685 use?
Our models discount Quantgroup Holding Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Quantgroup Holding Ltd that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Quantgroup Holding Ltd grew +29.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Quantgroup Holding Ltd (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.17 %: that much free cash flow Quantgroup Holding Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Quantgroup Holding Ltd it is HK$8.92 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of HK$3.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Quantgroup Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 2685 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.80, fair value HK$8.92, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2685?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.92). For Quantgroup Holding Ltd the two are HK$5.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Quantgroup Holding Ltd worth?
The market values Quantgroup Holding Ltd at about HK$2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2685?
Our models span a range for Quantgroup Holding Ltd: cautious scenario HK$6.69, base HK$8.92, optimistic HK$11.15 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price HK$3.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2685?
Quantgroup Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
Balance-sheet figures for Quantgroup Holding Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 98.5%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Quantgroup Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Quantgroup Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price HK$3.80, calculated fair value HK$8.92 (+135%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2685 calculated?
We run Quantgroup Holding Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Quantgroup Holding Ltd currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$3.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.92, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Quantgroup Holding Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Quantgroup Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The market capitalisation of Quantgroup Holding Ltd is HK$2.0B (≈ $249M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Quantgroup Holding Ltd is 4.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The net margin of Quantgroup Holding Ltd is 18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Quantgroup Holding Ltd is 98.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Quantgroup Holding Ltd is 29.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
The operating margin of Quantgroup Holding Ltd is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
Revenue at Quantgroup Holding Ltd is growing −14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Quantgroup Holding Ltd (2685)?
Earnings per share at Quantgroup Holding Ltd are growing −79.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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