PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PDD Holdings Inc. stock $252, price $83.95, upside +200.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 67% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $251.85 · Strongly undervalued (67%)
Quality 69/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +48.7 %/yr in CNY)
Highly profitable · 20.4% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(12/14)
Wide moat80/100
Positive coverage
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 60% above the price ($134.35).
Insiders sold $140,151 (6M)
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Temu Texas data settlement increases US compliance requirements🚩Rivals like Shein and Amazon could erode discount edge🚩AI agents could shift e-commerce entry points🚩Forced labor compliance could raise operational costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.53 – $157.57 · fair‑value band $134.35 – $447.76 · the $83.95 price screens below the $251.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses.
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The company operates Pinduoduo platform, which provides various product categories and interactive shopping experiences; and Temu, an online platform, which enables merchants to streamline their manufacturing and commercial operations.
The company was formerly known as Pinduoduo Inc. and changed its name to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023. PDD Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock analysis
PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) currently trades at $83.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $251.85, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $479.64 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $83.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.08, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $134.35 (bear) to $447.76 (bull), the price of $83.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PDD Holdings Inc. reported revenue of 432B CNY in FY2025 versus 93.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +46.4%/yr. Reported net income was 97.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +88.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $124B Large · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) $8.89 · Net margin 22.7% · Return on equity 22.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9% · Operating margin 24.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 200%, PDD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$134.35Fair Value $251.85Bull$447.76
Price $83.95 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.55 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $140,151 and none bought.
SaleAnthony Ping Leung KamDirector2× since Mar 30, 2026: 3,238 shares, avg. $90.36$292,577Sep 3, 2026
SaleIvonne MCM RietjensDirector560 shares at $99.59$55,770Mar 30, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+111.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+86.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+86.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 22%
2025 sits 61% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from scale and margins forms the main strength while China regulatory risks limit long-term durability assessment.
Main risk: Named rivals such as Shein, Amazon and domestic platforms like Alibaba or Douyin could intensify price competition or adopt local fulfillment models that reduce Temu's cost advantages and squeeze margins on low-price goods.
Bull case: PDD could leverage its supply chain scale and merchant network to adapt faster than rivals to any AI-driven shifts or compliance demands while maintaining cost leadership in core categories.
Bear case: If rivals capture share through superior models and regulatory or AI pressures compound, Temu's international growth could stall while domestic margins face sustained pressure from intensified competition.
PDD's Temu settled a Texas data privacy lawsuit by committing to store US user information on American servers and restrict China access. The deal adds compliance burdens and underscores regulatory hurdles for overseas growth while domestic competition already pressures margins. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet will tighter oversight curb Temu's momentum more than operational strengths in China can counter?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PDD Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PDD
Frequently asked questions
Is PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $251.85 versus a price of $83.95, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PDD?
Our model-based fair value for PDD Holdings Inc. is $251.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $83.95.
What is the quality score of PDD?
PDD Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $251.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $134.35, optimistic scenario $447.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PDD Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $251.85, about +200% upside versus a price of $83.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $134.35, optimistic scenario $447.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
PDD Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 451B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PDD Holdings Inc. it is $251.85 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $83.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PDD Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PDD trades below its calculated fair value: price $83.95, fair value $251.85, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($83.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($251.85). For PDD Holdings Inc. the two are $167.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PDD Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values PDD Holdings Inc. at about $124B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $83.95; our models calculate a fair value of $251.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDD?
Our models span a range for PDD Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $134.35, base $251.85, optimistic $447.76 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $83.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PDD?
PDD Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $251.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 25.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of PDD?
The PEG ratio of PDD Holdings Inc. is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Balance-sheet figures for PDD Holdings Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 22.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDD from its 52-week high?
PDD Holdings Inc. trades at $83.95, about 39% below its 52-week high of $138.13 and 15% above the low of $73.30 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $251.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PDD Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PDD Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $83.95, calculated fair value $251.85 (+200%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDD calculated?
We run PDD Holdings Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $251.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. PDD Holdings Inc. currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $83.95. Our model-based fair value is $251.85, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PDD Holdings Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($134.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($134.35 to $447.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of PDD Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
The market capitalisation of PDD Holdings Inc. is $124B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PDD Holdings Inc. is 2.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Earnings per share at PDD Holdings Inc. are $8.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
The net margin of PDD Holdings Inc. is 22.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PDD Holdings Inc. is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PDD Holdings Inc. is 13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
The operating margin of PDD Holdings Inc. is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Revenue at PDD Holdings Inc. is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +49.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Earnings per share at PDD Holdings Inc. are growing −11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) generate?
The free cash flow of PDD Holdings Inc. is $107B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) hold?
PDD Holdings Inc. holds more cash than debt, $177B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026