PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what PDD Holdings Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $115B · ISIN US7223041028
At a glance
PHPDD Holdings Inc.PDD · US
Price$77.84
Fair Value$225.78
Upside+190.1%
Quality66/100
A solid business, trading 66% below our fair value of $225.78.
As of Sep 9, 2026, the fair value of PDD Holdings Inc. is $225.78 per share against a price of $77.84, so the fair value sits 190% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +48.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (12/14)
✓Wide moat 76/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $169.33 to $495.42
Evidence: MediumRange $169.33 to $495.42
Fair value as of: Sep 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 9, 2026, revised from $225.48 to $225.78 (+0.1%) since Sep 1, 2026. Share price −14.0% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($169.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The model range is unusually wide ($169.33 to $495.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.53 – $157.57 · fair‑value band $169.33 – $495.42 · the $77.84 price screens below the $225.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 9, 2026.
PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) currently trades at $77.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $225.78, implying the stock looks roughly 65.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2,027 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the $77.84 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $195.42, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, PDD Holdings Inc. generated revenue of 442B CNY at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $177B. Fundamentals as of Sep 9, 2026
Scenario range: $169.33 (bear) to $495.42 (bull), the price of $77.84 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at 190%, PDD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.61 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio8.2
P/S ratio1.85P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$9.54price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2
Net margin22.7%FY2025
Return on equity25.4%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)13.9%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin18.4%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)442B CNYTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+11.0%3y avg +49.0%
EPS growth (YoY)−14.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$107BFY2025
Net cash$177BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality66/100
Of which business quality 69
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance76
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The company operates Pinduoduo platform, which provides various product categories and interactive shopping experiences; and Temu, an online platform, which enables merchants to streamline their manufacturing and commercial operations.
Full company description
PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The company operates Pinduoduo platform, which provides various product categories and interactive shopping experiences; and Temu, an online platform, which enables merchants to streamline their manufacturing and commercial operations. The company was formerly known as Pinduoduo Inc. and changed its name to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023. PDD Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PDD Holdings Inc. reported revenue of 432B CNY in FY2025 versus 93.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +46.4%/yr. Reported net income was 97.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +88.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
432B CNY
Latest YoY
+9.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+49.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+48.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+111.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +64.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+64.7%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−15.8% (2020) → 21.6% (2025) · rising
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 61% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
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Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 35
FUTURE55· sector 52
PAST100· sector 10
HEALTH99· sector 94
DIVIDEND0· sector 37
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 9, 2026).
Is PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $225.78 versus a price of $77.84, about +190% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PDD?
Our model-based fair value for PDD Holdings Inc. is $225.78 (as of Sep 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $77.84.
What is the quality score of PDD?
PDD Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $225.78 (as of Sep 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $169.33, optimistic scenario $495.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PDD Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $225.78, about +190% upside versus a price of $77.84 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $169.33, optimistic scenario $495.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
PDD Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 442B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PDD?
The net profit margin of PDD Holdings Inc. is about 21.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What is the intrinsic value of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PDD Holdings Inc. it is $225.78 per share (as of Sep 9, 2026), against a price of $77.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PDD Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 9, 2026, PDD trades below its calculated fair value: price $77.84, fair value $225.78, a gap of about +190% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($77.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($225.78). For PDD Holdings Inc. the two are $147.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PDD Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values PDD Holdings Inc. at about $115B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 9, 2026). Per share that is $77.84; our models calculate a fair value of $225.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDD?
Our models span a range for PDD Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $169.33, base $225.78, optimistic $495.42 per share (as of Sep 9, 2026, price $77.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PDD?
PDD Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $225.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PDD?
The PEG ratio of PDD Holdings Inc. is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)?
Balance-sheet figures for PDD Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 9, 2026): return on equity 25.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDD from its 52-week high?
PDD Holdings Inc. trades at $77.84, about 44% below its 52-week high of $139.41 (as of Sep 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $225.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PDD Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PDD Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 9, 2026: price $77.84, calculated fair value $225.78 (+190%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDD calculated?
We run PDD Holdings Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $225.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. PDD Holdings Inc. currently trades 190 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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PDD Holdings Inc.
PDD · US