PDD Holdings (PDD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $123B
PDD Holdings
PDD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $222.75 to $223.51 (+0.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +10.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 146% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($167.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($167.63 to $519.20). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.53 – $157.57 · fair‑value band $167.63 – $519.20 · the $90.85 price screens below the $223.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PDD Holdings (PDD) currently trades at $90.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $223.51, implying the stock looks roughly 146.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PDD Holdings generated revenue of $442B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $177B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $167.63 (bear case) to $519.20 (bull case); at $90.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at 146%, PDD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($691.18) versus Asset-Based ($43.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The company operates Pinduoduo platform, which provides various product categories and interactive shopping experiences; and Temu, an online platform, which enables merchants to streamline their manufacturing and commercial operations.
Full company description
PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The company operates Pinduoduo platform, which provides various product categories and interactive shopping experiences; and Temu, an online platform, which enables merchants to streamline their manufacturing and commercial operations. The company was formerly known as Pinduoduo Inc. and changed its name to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023. PDD Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PDD Holdings reported revenue of ¥432B in FY2025 versus ¥93.9B in FY2021, a compound +46.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥97.8B in FY2025, compounding +88.4%/yr from FY2021.
Watch PDD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR (PDD) Surpasses Market Returns: Some Facts Worth Knowing
- PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR (PDD) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
- PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR (PDD) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider
- EEM, NU, PDD, BAP: Large Inflows Detected at ETF
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 108 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $89.31 | $11.46 | -87% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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