China Bills Finance Corp (2820) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Bills Finance Corp TWD 17.61, price TWD 17.00, upside +3.6%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.45 TWD – 17.85 TWD · fair‑value band 13.21 TWD – 22.02 TWD · the 17.00 TWD price screens below the 17.61 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Bills Finance Corporation provides various financial services in Taiwan.
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China Bills Finance Corporation provides various financial services in Taiwan. The company engages in the certification and underwriting of short-term bills and bank debentures; brokerage and trading of short-term bills, bank debentures, government and corporate bonds, and foreign bonds; guaranteeing short-term bills; and provision of financial consulting services to enterprises. It is also involved in the processing interbank call loans; equity investments; fixed income securities trading; and foreign-currency bills investment businesses. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
China Bills Finance Corp (2820) currently trades at 17.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.61 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 3.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 13.21 TWD (bear) to 22.02 TWD (bull), the price of 17.00 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Bills Finance Corp reported revenue of 7.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 3.3B TWD in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B TWD in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 22.9B TWD (≈ $718M) · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 3.27 · EPS (TTM) 1.34 TWD · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 25.8% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 4%, 2820 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.21 TWDFair Value 17.61 TWDBull 22.02 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3219 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.61% → 89%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.6% a year for the price.
Compare China Bills Finance Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)63% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)81% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth58% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Bills Finance Corp (2820) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.61 TWD versus a price of 17.00 TWD, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2820?
Our model-based fair value for China Bills Finance Corp is 17.61 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2820?
China Bills Finance Corp has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.61 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.21 TWD, optimistic scenario 22.02 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Bills Finance Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.61 TWD, about +4% upside versus a price of 17.00 TWD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 13.21 TWD, optimistic scenario 22.02 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
China Bills Finance Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Bills Finance Corp pay a dividend?
China Bills Finance Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Bills Finance Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +43.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2820 use?
Our models discount China Bills Finance Corp at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Bills Finance Corp that is +43.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Bills Finance Corp (2820) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Bills Finance Corp grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies +43.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Bills Finance Corp (2820) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Bills Finance Corp (+43.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.14 %: that much free cash flow China Bills Finance Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Bills Finance Corp it is 17.61 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 17.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Bills Finance Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2820 trades below its calculated fair value: price 17.00 TWD, fair value 17.61 TWD, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2820?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.61 TWD). For China Bills Finance Corp the two are 0.6100 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Bills Finance Corp worth?
The market values China Bills Finance Corp at about 22.9B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 17.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 17.61 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2820?
Our models span a range for China Bills Finance Corp: cautious scenario 13.21 TWD, base 17.61 TWD, optimistic 22.02 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 17.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2820?
China Bills Finance Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.61 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Bills Finance Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2820 from its 52-week high?
China Bills Finance Corp trades at 17.00 TWD, about 5% below its 52-week high of 17.85 TWD and 5% above the low of 16.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.61 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Bills Finance Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Bills Finance Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 17.00 TWD, calculated fair value 17.61 TWD (+4%), Quality Score 59/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2820 calculated?
We run China Bills Finance Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.61 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Bills Finance Corp currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 17.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 17.61 TWD, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Bills Finance Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Bills Finance Corp (2820) come from?
Earnings per share at China Bills Finance Corp grew −0.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Bills Finance Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The market capitalisation of China Bills Finance Corp is 22.9B TWD (≈ $718M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Bills Finance Corp is 3.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
Earnings per share at China Bills Finance Corp are 1.34 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The dividend yield of China Bills Finance Corp is 5.3% (payout 67.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The net margin of China Bills Finance Corp is 25.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Bills Finance Corp is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Bills Finance Corp is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
The operating margin of China Bills Finance Corp is 81.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
Revenue at China Bills Finance Corp is growing +57.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Bills Finance Corp (2820)?
Earnings per share at China Bills Finance Corp are growing +64.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Bills Finance Corp (2820) carry?
The net debt of China Bills Finance Corp is 234B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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