Zijin Mining Group (2899) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$791B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from HK$33.11 to HK$38.33 (+15.8%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +16.9% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$28.20 to HK$73.99). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.62 – HK$45.50 · fair‑value band HK$28.20 – HK$73.99 · the HK$35.30 price screens below the HK$38.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Zijin Mining Group (2899) currently trades at HK$35.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$38.33, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Zijin Mining Group generated revenue of HK$369B at a net margin of 16.7%. Revenue grew 24.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at HK$104B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$28.20 (bear case) to HK$73.99 (bull case); at HK$35.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 9%, 2899 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$54.04) versus Asset-Based (HK$4.64). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally.
Full company description
Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers copper, gold, zinc concentrate, lead concentrate, silver, lithium, iron concentrate, tungsten concentrate, and molybdenum concentrate; smelted copper, smelted and processed gold and silver, smelted zinc ingots, sulfuric acid, and battery -grade lithium carbonate; and copper pipes, copper plates and strips, potassium gold cyanide, and other products. It is also involved in mineral resource exploration; gold and copper mining and beneficiation; gold and copper smelting ; sales of jewelry and mineral products; investment in the mining industry; foreign trade; open-pit mining of copper and gold mines and underground mining of copper mines; manufacturing of special equipment for environmental protection; air pollution control; water pollution control; solid waste treatment; waste incineration power generation and hazardous waste disposal; and other services. The company holds 100% interest in the Shapinggou Molybdenum mine in Jinzhai County, Anhui Province. The company was formerly known as Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Company Limited and changed its name to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited in June 2004. Zijin Mining Group Company Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Longyan, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zijin Mining Group reported revenue of HK$349B in FY2025 versus HK$225B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$51.8B in FY2025, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | C$58.54 | C$40.15 | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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