Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$18.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +8.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide (C$40.74 to C$113.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$6.21 – C$117.66 · fair‑value band C$40.74 – C$113.57 · the C$86.70 price screens above the C$53.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) currently trades at C$86.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$53.76, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lundin Gold Inc generated revenue of C$2.0B at a net margin of 45.7%. Revenue grew 59.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 68.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$409M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$40.74 (bear case) to C$113.57 (bull case); at C$86.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -38%, LUG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$150.32) versus Asset-Based (C$3.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lundin Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates its mineral concessions in Ecuador. It explores for gold and silver deposits. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 65,000 hectares located in Ecuador.
Full company description
Lundin Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates its mineral concessions in Ecuador. It explores for gold and silver deposits. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 65,000 hectares located in Ecuador. It also holds a 100% interest in the Fruta del Norte gold project that comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located in the Cordillera del Cóndor region of southeast Ecuador. The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc. in December 2014. Lundin Gold Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lundin Gold Inc reported revenue of C$1.8B in FY2025 versus C$733M in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$806M in FY2025, compounding +38.1%/yr from FY2021.
LUG screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lundin Gold Reports Further High-Grade Results at FDNS including 108.61 g/t Au over 11.75 Metres; Development Begins Toward FDN East Followi
- Lundin Gold Discovers Two New Copper-Gold Porphyries, Increasing District Total to Seven; Targets Early 2027 Maiden Resource Estimate for Sa
- Lundin Gold Reports Q2 2026 Production of 118,994 Ounces of Gold
- Lundin Gold Inc. Announces SDR Record Date for Euroclear Sweden Shareholders in Connection with Distribution of LunR Shares
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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