Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group ¥1.06, price ¥3.93, upside -73.0%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.97 – ¥6.96 · fair‑value band ¥0.7395 – ¥1.16 · the ¥3.93 price screens above the ¥1.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd engages in the manufacture and sale of water-saving irrigation materials.
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Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd engages in the manufacture and sale of water-saving irrigation materials. It offers drip tapes and on-line dripper; PVC and PE pipes; fertilizer and fertigation equipment; reel type and large sprinklers; water tank, smart water meter, intelligent controller; integrated monitoring and control of the gate slot; water measurement equipment; home garden equipment; and Solar Irrigation System. The company is also involved in agricultural water saving; urban and rural water supply; sewage treatment; intelligent water affairs; water system connection; water ecological treatment and restoration; and integrating project planning, design, investment, construction, operation, management, and maintenance services. It serves in China, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Russia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Senegal, Mali, Mexico, Ecuador, the United States, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Dayu Water-saving Group Co., Ltd and changed its name to Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd in November 2022. Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.
Stock analysis
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021) currently trades at ¥3.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.06, implying the stock looks roughly 269.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥4.87 per share, and 3 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥3.93 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.8900, and 14 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.7395 (bear) to ¥1.16 (bull), the price of ¥3.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group reported revenue of 3.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 48.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −22.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.0B CNY (≈ $600M) · P/E ratio 78.6 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −73%, 300021 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥0.7395Fair Value ¥1.06Bull ¥1.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0219 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Compare Gansu Dayu Water saving Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 66 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−73% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)78.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.54× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.05× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 66
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gansu Dayu Water saving Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300021
Frequently asked questions
Is Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.06 versus a price of ¥3.93, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300021?
Our model-based fair value for Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is ¥1.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.93.
What is the quality score of 300021?
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7395, optimistic scenario ¥1.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gansu Dayu Water saving Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.06, about −73% upside versus a price of ¥3.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7395, optimistic scenario ¥1.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Gansu Dayu Water saving Group pay a dividend?
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gansu Dayu Water saving Group it is ¥1.06 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥3.93. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gansu Dayu Water saving Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 300021 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.93, fair value ¥1.06, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300021?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.06). For Gansu Dayu Water saving Group the two are ¥2.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gansu Dayu Water saving Group worth?
The market values Gansu Dayu Water saving Group at about 4.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.93; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300021?
Our models span a range for Gansu Dayu Water saving Group: cautious scenario ¥0.7395, base ¥1.06, optimistic ¥1.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥3.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300021?
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300021 from its 52-week high?
Gansu Dayu Water saving Group trades at ¥3.93, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥5.02 and 7% above the low of ¥3.66 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gansu Dayu Water saving Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, SBS, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gansu Dayu Water saving Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥3.93, calculated fair value ¥1.06 (−73%), Quality Score 24/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300021 calculated?
We run Gansu Dayu Water saving Group through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gansu Dayu Water saving Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥3.93. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.06, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gansu Dayu Water saving Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021) come from?
Earnings per share at Gansu Dayu Water saving Group grew +7.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.7 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The market capitalisation of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 4.0B CNY (≈ $600M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 1.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Earnings per share at Gansu Dayu Water saving Group are ¥0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 78.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The dividend yield of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 0.5% (payout 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The net margin of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
The operating margin of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Revenue at Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021)?
Earnings per share at Gansu Dayu Water saving Group are growing −1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021) generate?
The free cash flow of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is −350M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gansu Dayu Water saving Group (300021) carry?
The net debt of Gansu Dayu Water saving Group is 830M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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