Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Shenzhen Changhong Tech is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ¥2.06 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −2.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.43% dividend yield
!Trails peers(2/12)
!Narrow moat34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.05 – ¥41.65 · fair‑value band ¥1.55 – ¥2.31 · the ¥18.66 price screens above the ¥2.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co., Ltd. provides precision mold design and manufacturing solutions in China and internationally. It offers medical devices and polymer plastic consumables, smart manufacturing products, semiconductor consumables, and mold products. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151) currently trades at ¥18.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.06, implying the stock looks roughly 805.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥2.35 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥18.66 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥0.6500, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.55 (bear) to ¥2.31 (bull), the price of ¥18.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shenzhen Changhong Tech reported revenue of 994M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 64.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −12.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.2B CNY (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 155.5 · P/S ratio 10.1 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −89%, 300151 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.55Fair Value ¥2.06Bull ¥2.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0283 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 8%
Compare Shenzhen Changhong Tech with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)155.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)12.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 35
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.06 versus a price of ¥18.66, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300151?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Changhong Tech is ¥2.06 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥18.66.
What is the quality score of 300151?
Shenzhen Changhong Tech has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.06 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.55, optimistic scenario ¥2.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Changhong Tech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.06, about −89% upside versus a price of ¥18.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.55, optimistic scenario ¥2.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
Shenzhen Changhong Tech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 984M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Changhong Tech pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Changhong Tech currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Changhong Tech it is ¥2.06 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥18.66. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Changhong Tech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 300151 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥18.66, fair value ¥2.06, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300151?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥18.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.06). For Shenzhen Changhong Tech the two are ¥16.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Changhong Tech worth?
The market values Shenzhen Changhong Tech at about 12.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥18.66; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300151?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Changhong Tech: cautious scenario ¥1.55, base ¥2.06, optimistic ¥2.31 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥18.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300151?
Shenzhen Changhong Tech trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 155.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.4, P/S 12.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Changhong Tech (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300151 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Changhong Tech trades at ¥18.66, about 28% below its 52-week high of ¥25.88 and 62% above the low of ¥11.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Changhong Tech?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Changhong Tech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥18.66, calculated fair value ¥2.06 (−89%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300151 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Changhong Tech through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Changhong Tech itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The closing price on Sep 14, 2026 was ¥18.66. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.06, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Changhong Tech right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151) come from?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Changhong Tech grew +8.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shenzhen Changhong Tech
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 12.2B CNY (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 10.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Changhong Tech are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 155.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 0.4% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Changhong Tech is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is −64.3M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shenzhen Changhong Tech (300151) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen Changhong Tech is 349M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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