Tongyu Heavy Industry Co (300185) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 11.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.4500 to ¥0.8036 (+78.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.4464 to ¥1.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.70 – ¥4.29 · fair‑value band ¥0.4464 – ¥1.09 · the ¥2.80 price screens above the ¥0.8036 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Tongyu Heavy Industry Co (300185) currently trades at ¥2.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8036, implying the stock looks roughly 71.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tongyu Heavy Industry Co generated revenue of 6.7B CNY at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Net debt stands at 3.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.4464 (bear case) to ¥1.09 (bull case); at ¥2.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -71%, 300185 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥1.31) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tongyu Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of forgings and castings.
Full company description
Tongyu Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of forgings and castings. It offers wind power generator main shafts, cylinders, gear rings, ductile iron casting pipe molds, cold work rolls, support rolls, steam turbines and generators, cranks, marine shafts, pressure vessel forgings, machine tool, forging blanks, ESR and steel ingots, etc., as well as fabrication products and alloys. The company also offers rudder systems, forgings, such as intermediate shafts, propeller shafts, rudder stocks, rudder pintles, crankshafts, as well as engages in alloy production and sales, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, power generation, industrial and civil heating, forging material manufacturing and sales, casting manufacturing and sales, energy development, marine engineering and petrochemical equipment, new energy power generation, research and development and manufacturing of special equipment for power stations. It serves metallurgy, mining, hydroelectric and thermal power, nuclear and wind power, shipbuilding, petroleum chemical, heavy machinery, marine engineering, aerospace, mold, and other industries. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Yucheng, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tongyu Heavy Industry Co reported revenue of ¥6.6B in FY2025 versus ¥5.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥65.5M in FY2025, compounding −30.7%/yr from FY2021.
300185 screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 243 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $577.10 | $103.31 | -82% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $186.17 | $36.51 | -80% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $59.13 | $60.24 | +2% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥7.45 | ¥1.15 | -85% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥31.69 | ¥8.74 | -72% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥56.73 | ¥24.43 | -57% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥131.65 | ¥44.23 | -66% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥48.52 | ¥8.07 | -83% |
| Baoding Technology Co 002552 | ¥43.95 | ¥5.44 | -88% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥110.08 | ¥42.71 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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