Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. stock ¥37.35, price ¥106, that is 64.9% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥16.21 – ¥182.55 · fair‑value band ¥18.22 – ¥46.68 · the ¥106.46 price screens above the ¥37.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, design, production, and sale of precision progressive stamping dies and downstream precision structural parts in China and internationally.
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The company offers iron cores for home appliance motors and molds for drive motors used in new energy vehicles. It also provides motor cores and lithium battery structural components, as well as precision parts and components for humanoid robots.
The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Ningbo, China.
Stock analysis
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953) currently trades at ¥106.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥37.35, 65% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥95.79 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥106.46 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥8.74, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥18.22 (bear) to ¥46.68 (bull), the price of ¥106.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 9.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +33.8%/yr. Reported net income was 513M CNY in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 24.7B CNY (≈ $3.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 33.8 · P/S ratio 1.88 · EPS (TTM) ¥3.15 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −65%, 300953 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥18.22Fair Value ¥37.35Bull¥46.68
Price ¥106.46 · Downside -64.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥2.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV¥22.04¥25.97¥29.3474
Residual Income¥16.19¥18.44¥25.1574
Growth DCF¥3.40¥9.47¥19.1870
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥3.86¥7.77¥19.8469
Owner Earnings¥8.48¥22.84¥51.3367
5Y Revenue Exit¥21.43¥45.15¥95.2665
5Y EBITDA Exit¥33.03¥68.60¥138.6368
5Y P/E Exit¥22.60¥61.09¥114.5964
10Y Revenue Exit¥15.10¥49.52¥75.1862
10Y EBITDA Exit¥24.51¥73.62¥163.9160
10Y P/E Exit¥17.16¥51.96¥111.4956
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥14.23¥99.22¥139.2461
Lynch FV¥51.26¥73.23¥95.2059
PEG = 1.0¥51.26¥73.23¥95.2055
EPV¥22.04¥25.97¥29.3474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥4.78¥9.32¥13.8065
DDM Multi-Stage¥4.78¥8.15¥9.8665
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥32.95¥43.94¥54.9263
P/S Multiple¥26.68¥35.57¥44.4658
P/B Multiple¥57.51¥76.68¥95.8455
EV/EBIT¥30.67¥44.34¥58.0065
EV/EBITDA¥36.94¥52.69¥68.4467
EV/Revenue¥18.94¥31.48¥44.0152
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥8.52¥11.42¥17.0454
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥3.40¥9.47¥19.1870
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥16.19¥18.44¥25.1574
ROIC Compounder¥26.58¥37.91¥47.8869
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥67.05¥95.79¥124.5265
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +48.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.1% vs 20.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
2025 sits 171% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−64.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)65.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.8× · Pricier than median
P/B5.82× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.88× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA19.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 68
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥37.35 versus a price of ¥106.46, about 65% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300953?
Our model-based fair value for Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is ¥37.35 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥106.46.
What is the quality score of 300953?
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥37.35 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥18.22, optimistic scenario ¥46.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥37.35, about 65% lower versus a price of ¥106.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥18.22, optimistic scenario ¥46.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. pays a dividend of ¥0.214 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.2%. The last ex-dividend date was May 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 6.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.21 times. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.2% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.2% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. it is ¥37.35 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥106.46. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 300953 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥106.46, fair value ¥37.35, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300953?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥106.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥37.35). For Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. the two are ¥69.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. at about 24.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥106.46; our models calculate a fair value of ¥37.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300953?
Our models span a range for Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥18.22, base ¥37.35, optimistic ¥46.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥106.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300953?
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥37.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.8, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 19.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300953 from its 52-week high?
Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. trades at ¥106.46, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥182.55 and 41% above the low of ¥75.72 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥37.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥106.46, calculated fair value ¥37.35 (−65%), Quality Score 35/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300953 calculated?
We run Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥37.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥106.46. Our model-based fair value is ¥37.35, about 65% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥46.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥18.22 to ¥46.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The market capitalisation of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 24.7B CNY (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 1.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Earnings per share at Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. are ¥3.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The dividend yield of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 0.2% (payout 6.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The net margin of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 5.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
The operating margin of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Revenue at Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is growing +65.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953)?
Earnings per share at Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. are growing +34.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953) generate?
The free cash flow of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 10.8M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. (300953) carry?
The net debt of Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co. Ltd. is 2.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026