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BGT Group (300774) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · CN · Market cap 5.6B CNY

BG BGT Group 300774 · SHE
Price¥10.97
Fair Value¥3.70
Upside-66.3%
Quality40/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 3.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.18% dividend yield
Trails peers (1/13)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥2.78 – ¥4.63 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥3.79 to ¥3.70 (−2.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 66% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥28.52 ¥5.84 Fair Value ¥3.70 Aug 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.84 – ¥28.52 · fair‑value band ¥2.78 – ¥4.63 · the ¥10.97 price screens above the ¥3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

BGT Group (300774) currently trades at ¥10.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 66.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, BGT Group generated revenue of 943M CNY at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 38.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at 42.0M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.78 (bear case) to ¥4.63 (bull case); at ¥10.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -66%, 300774 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥2.83 ¥2.91 ¥2.88 76
ROIC Compounder ¥2.23 ¥2.57 ¥2.86 72
Gordon GGM ¥1.77 ¥3.53 ¥5.35 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.40 ¥7.60 ¥10.54 54
Lynch FV ¥2.11 ¥3.01 ¥3.92 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥2.11 ¥3.01 ¥3.92 46
EPV ¥2.23 ¥2.57 ¥2.86 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.77 ¥3.53 ¥5.35 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.77 ¥3.05 ¥3.73 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥2.78 ¥3.70 ¥4.63 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.62 ¥3.50 ¥4.37 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.62 ¥3.50 ¥4.37 55
EV/EBIT ¥3.45 ¥4.57 ¥5.69 53
EV/EBITDA ¥3.13 ¥4.15 ¥5.16 54
EV/Revenue ¥2.80 ¥3.97 ¥5.14 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.82 ¥2.44 ¥3.63 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.83 ¥2.91 ¥2.88 76
ROIC Compounder ¥2.23 ¥2.57 ¥2.86 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.86 ¥4.08 ¥5.31 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥4.08) versus Asset-Based (¥2.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 943M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -38.5%
Net margin 3.7%
Return on equity 2.6%
Free cash flow −336M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 136.7
More key figures
Operating margin -19.5%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1000
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +196%
Net debt 42.0M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 5
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

BGT Group Co., Ltd. focuses on industrial water treatment, salt wastewater resource reuse, and comprehensive development of salt lakes and mineral resources in China. The company is involved in salinity water resource utilization, industrial wastewater treatment, lithium extraction from salt lakes and comprehensive mineral developments.

Full company description

BGT Group Co., Ltd. focuses on industrial water treatment, salt wastewater resource reuse, and comprehensive development of salt lakes and mineral resources in China. The company is involved in salinity water resource utilization, industrial wastewater treatment, lithium extraction from salt lakes and comprehensive mineral developments. It also offers raw water treatment, recycled water treatment, desalination, chemical water treatment systems, boiler make-up water treatment, condensate treatment, wastewater treatment, industrial wastewater treatment, industrial park wastewater treatment, and other industrial wastewater treatment. In addition, it is involved in membrane application technology, project execution, performance data, and project experience gained from industrial salinity wastewater zero liquid discharge and salt separation projects, tailored solutions combining membrane-based processes with adsorption methods for various salt lake water qualities that enable the extraction and utilization of other valuable elements within the salt lake, such as potassium, rubidium, cesium, and boron, thereby achieving comprehensive salt lake resource utilization. Further, the company offers activated coke for water purification, activated coke for wastewater treatment, and integrates adsorption, desulfurization, and purification functionalities that are used in purification of toxic and harmful gases, waste gas treatment, purification of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, and solvent recovery. BGT Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BGT Group reported revenue of ¥1.0B in FY2025 versus ¥713M in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥84.1M in FY2025, compounding −16.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 41/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.0B CNY
Latest YoY
−2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+6.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+11.8%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y)
+13.4%
Revenue +9.2%/yr
FY21 ¥713M
FY22 ¥839M
FY23 ¥653M
FY24 ¥1.0B
FY25 ¥1.0B
Net income −16.7%/yr
FY21 ¥174M
FY22 ¥33.0M
FY23 ¥104M
FY24 ¥133M
FY25 ¥84.1M

300774 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BGT Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300774

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Below median
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -19% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -39% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.19× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 136.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.76× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.92× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 53.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 7
FUTURE 0 · sector 28
PAST 11 · sector 29
HEALTH 91 · sector 66
DIVIDEND 4 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $134.33 $65.80 -51%
SBSP3 SBSP3 R$29.22 R$31.23 +7%
SBS SBS $5.79 $5.21 -10%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $38.59 $21.81 -43%
CSMG3 CSMG3 R$66.10 R$60.17 -9%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.42 ¥33.29 +13%
American States Water Company AWR $85.01 $48.02 -44%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥6.97 ¥10.74 +54%
California Water Service Group CWT $49.73 $33.56 -33%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.12 ¥2.77 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is BGT Group (300774) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.70 versus a price of ¥10.97, about −66% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300774?
Our model-based fair value for BGT Group is ¥3.70 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥10.97.
What is the quality score of 300774?
BGT Group has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BGT Group (300774)?
BGT Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 943M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 300774?
The net profit margin of BGT Group is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does BGT Group pay a dividend?
BGT Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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