BGT Group (300774) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 5.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥3.79 to ¥3.70 (−2.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.84 – ¥28.52 · fair‑value band ¥2.78 – ¥4.63 · the ¥10.97 price screens above the ¥3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
BGT Group (300774) currently trades at ¥10.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 66.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BGT Group generated revenue of 943M CNY at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 38.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at 42.0M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.78 (bear case) to ¥4.63 (bull case); at ¥10.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -66%, 300774 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥4.08) versus Asset-Based (¥2.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BGT Group Co., Ltd. focuses on industrial water treatment, salt wastewater resource reuse, and comprehensive development of salt lakes and mineral resources in China. The company is involved in salinity water resource utilization, industrial wastewater treatment, lithium extraction from salt lakes and comprehensive mineral developments.
Full company description
BGT Group Co., Ltd. focuses on industrial water treatment, salt wastewater resource reuse, and comprehensive development of salt lakes and mineral resources in China. The company is involved in salinity water resource utilization, industrial wastewater treatment, lithium extraction from salt lakes and comprehensive mineral developments. It also offers raw water treatment, recycled water treatment, desalination, chemical water treatment systems, boiler make-up water treatment, condensate treatment, wastewater treatment, industrial wastewater treatment, industrial park wastewater treatment, and other industrial wastewater treatment. In addition, it is involved in membrane application technology, project execution, performance data, and project experience gained from industrial salinity wastewater zero liquid discharge and salt separation projects, tailored solutions combining membrane-based processes with adsorption methods for various salt lake water qualities that enable the extraction and utilization of other valuable elements within the salt lake, such as potassium, rubidium, cesium, and boron, thereby achieving comprehensive salt lake resource utilization. Further, the company offers activated coke for water purification, activated coke for wastewater treatment, and integrates adsorption, desulfurization, and purification functionalities that are used in purification of toxic and harmful gases, waste gas treatment, purification of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, and solvent recovery. BGT Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BGT Group reported revenue of ¥1.0B in FY2025 versus ¥713M in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥84.1M in FY2025, compounding −16.7%/yr from FY2021.
300774 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.33 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $85.01 | $48.02 | -44% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.12 | ¥2.77 | -33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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