Onechance (300792) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Onechance ¥9.99, price ¥25.86, upside -61.4%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥14.14 – ¥61.24 · fair‑value band ¥8.52 – ¥12.48 · the ¥25.86 price screens above the ¥9.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hangzhou Onechance Tech Crop. provides brand online marketing and management services. The company offers brand image building, product design planning, integrated marketing planning, material design, visual design, big data analysis, online brand operation, targeted advertising, precision advertising delivery, pre-sales and after-sales service, online brand operations, CRM management, warehouse and logistics services, etc. It operates Tmall and e-commerce live streaming platforms. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Onechance (300792) currently trades at ¥25.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.99, implying the stock looks roughly 158.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥19.25 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥25.86 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.06, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥8.52 (bear) to ¥12.48 (bull), the price of ¥25.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Onechance reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 108M CNY in FY2025, compounding −24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.1B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 55.0 · P/S ratio 5.52 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4700 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −61%, 300792 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥8.52Fair Value ¥9.99Bull ¥12.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2414 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs 10%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price and +12.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)55.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.40× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.80× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF3.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA45.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 55
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Onechance Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300792
Frequently asked questions
Is Onechance (300792) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.99 versus a price of ¥25.86, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300792?
Our model-based fair value for Onechance is ¥9.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.86.
What is the quality score of 300792?
Onechance has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Onechance (300792)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.52, optimistic scenario ¥12.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Onechance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥9.99, about −61% upside versus a price of ¥25.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.52, optimistic scenario ¥12.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Onechance (300792)?
Onechance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Onechance pay a dividend?
Onechance currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Onechance (300792)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Onechance would have to grow free cash flow by +6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300792 use?
Our models discount Onechance at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Onechance that is +6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Onechance (300792) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Onechance grew -3.7 % a year. The price currently implies +6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Onechance (300792) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Onechance (+6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Onechance (300792)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.82 %: that much free cash flow Onechance produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Onechance (300792)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Onechance it is ¥9.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥25.86. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Onechance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 300792 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥25.86, fair value ¥9.99, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300792?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥9.99). For Onechance the two are ¥15.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Onechance worth?
The market values Onechance at about 7.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.86; our models calculate a fair value of ¥9.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300792?
Our models span a range for Onechance: cautious scenario ¥8.52, base ¥9.99, optimistic ¥12.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥25.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300792?
Onechance trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥9.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 6.8, EV/EBITDA 45.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Onechance (300792)?
Balance-sheet figures for Onechance (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300792 from its 52-week high?
Onechance trades at ¥25.86, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥49.25 and 21% above the low of ¥21.42 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥9.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Onechance?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Onechance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥25.86, calculated fair value ¥9.99 (−61%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300792 calculated?
We run Onechance through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥9.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Onechance itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Onechance (300792)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥25.86. Our model-based fair value is ¥9.99, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Onechance right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Onechance (300792) come from?
Earnings per share at Onechance grew +14.8 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Onechance
How large is the market capitalisation of Onechance (300792)?
The market capitalisation of Onechance is 7.1B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Onechance (300792)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Onechance is 5.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Onechance (300792)?
Earnings per share at Onechance are ¥0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 55.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Onechance (300792)?
The dividend yield of Onechance is 0.5% (payout 29.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Onechance (300792)?
The net margin of Onechance is 10.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Onechance (300792)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Onechance is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Onechance (300792)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Onechance is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Onechance (300792)?
The operating margin of Onechance is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Onechance (300792)?
Revenue at Onechance is growing −14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Onechance (300792)?
Earnings per share at Onechance are growing +18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Onechance (300792) hold?
Onechance holds more cash than debt, 1.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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