Onechance (300792) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Onechance stock ¥10.26, price ¥23.55, that is 56.4% below the price, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥14.14 – ¥61.24 · fair‑value band ¥8.66 – ¥12.45 · the ¥23.55 price screens above the ¥10.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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The company offers brand image building, product design planning, integrated marketing planning, material design, visual design, big data analysis, online brand operation, targeted advertising, precision advertising delivery, pre-sales and after-sales service, online brand operations, CRM management, warehouse and logistics services, etc.
It operates Tmall and e-commerce live streaming platforms. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Onechance (300792) currently trades at ¥23.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.26, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥18.49 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥23.55 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.60, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥8.66 (bear) to ¥12.45 (bull), the price of ¥23.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Onechance reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 108M CNY in FY2025, compounding −24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.6B CNY (≈ $837M) Small · P/E ratio 56.1 · P/S ratio 6.15 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4200 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −56%, 300792 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥8.66Fair Value ¥10.26Bull¥12.45
Price ¥23.55 · Downside -56.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2393 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Per share before 2021divided by the spin-off factor 1.5002
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.8% vs 14.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−56.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−27.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)56.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.90× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)6.15× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA37.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 61
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Onechance Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300792
Frequently asked questions
Is Onechance (300792) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.26 versus a price of ¥23.55, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300792?
Our model-based fair value for Onechance is ¥10.26 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.55.
What is the quality score of 300792?
Onechance has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Onechance (300792)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥10.26 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.66, optimistic scenario ¥12.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Onechance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥10.26, about 56% lower versus a price of ¥23.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.66, optimistic scenario ¥12.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Onechance (300792)?
Onechance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 908M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Onechance pay a dividend?
Onechance currently shows a dividend yield of 0.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Onechance (300792) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Onechance pays a dividend of ¥0.14 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The last ex-dividend date was May 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 33.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 10.71 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Onechance (300792)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Onechance would have to grow free cash flow by +4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300792 use?
Our models discount Onechance at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Onechance that is +4.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Onechance (300792) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Onechance grew -3.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Onechance (300792) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Onechance (+4.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Onechance (300792)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.39 %: that much free cash flow Onechance produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Onechance (300792)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Onechance it is ¥10.26 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥23.55. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Onechance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 300792 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.55, fair value ¥10.26, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300792?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥10.26). For Onechance the two are ¥13.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Onechance worth?
The market values Onechance at about 5.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.55; our models calculate a fair value of ¥10.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300792?
Our models span a range for Onechance: cautious scenario ¥8.66, base ¥10.26, optimistic ¥12.45 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥23.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300792?
Onechance trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥10.26 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 52.1. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 37.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Onechance (300792)?
Balance-sheet figures for Onechance (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 3.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300792 from its 52-week high?
Onechance trades at ¥23.55, about 52% below its 52-week high of ¥49.25 and 13% above the low of ¥20.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥10.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Onechance?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Onechance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥23.55, calculated fair value ¥10.26 (−56%), Quality Score 76/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300792 calculated?
We run Onechance through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥10.26 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Onechance itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Onechance (300792)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥23.55. Our model-based fair value is ¥10.26, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Onechance right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Onechance (300792) come from?
Earnings per share at Onechance grew +14.8 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Onechance
How large is the market capitalisation of Onechance (300792)?
The market capitalisation of Onechance is 5.6B CNY (≈ $837M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Onechance (300792)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Onechance is 6.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Onechance (300792)?
Earnings per share at Onechance are ¥0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Onechance (300792)?
The dividend yield of Onechance is 0.6% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Onechance (300792)?
The net margin of Onechance is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Onechance (300792)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Onechance is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Onechance (300792)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Onechance is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Onechance (300792)?
The operating margin of Onechance is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Onechance (300792)?
Revenue at Onechance is growing −27.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Onechance (300792)?
Earnings per share at Onechance are growing −8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Onechance (300792) hold?
Onechance holds more cash than debt, 1.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026