Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock ¥7.59, price ¥10.02, that is 24.3% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.37 – ¥20.29 · fair‑value band ¥6.36 – ¥9.59 · the ¥10.02 price screens above the ¥7.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally.
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It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products. The company also offers mechanical and hydraulic transmission rail cars, electric railcars, lifting rail cars, and flat cars; and cargo equipment.
In addition, it provides contact network maintenance, wire laying, network dedicated flat car, network inspection, and network pole operation, as well as insulator water washing vehicle services; and overhaul services. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Xiangyang, China.
Stock analysis
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) currently trades at ¥10.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.59, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥9.79 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥10.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.07, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥6.36 (bear) to ¥9.59 (bull), the price of ¥10.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 3.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 202M CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3B CNY (≈ $802M) Small · P/E ratio 25.7 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3900 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −24%, 301048 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥6.36Fair Value ¥7.59Bull¥9.59
Price ¥10.02 · Downside -24.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2411 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price.
Compare Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.90× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.60× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.6× · Cheaper than median
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Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.59 versus a price of ¥10.02, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301048?
Our model-based fair value for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is ¥7.59 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.02.
What is the quality score of 301048?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.59 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.36, optimistic scenario ¥9.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.59, about 24% lower versus a price of ¥10.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.36, optimistic scenario ¥9.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. pays a dividend of ¥0.108 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 27.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.51 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +8.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301048 use?
Our models discount Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. that is +8.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (+8.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.86 %: that much free cash flow Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. it is ¥7.59 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥10.02. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 301048 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥10.02, fair value ¥7.59, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301048?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.59). For Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. the two are ¥2.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. at about 5.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.02; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301048?
Our models span a range for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥6.36, base ¥7.59, optimistic ¥9.59 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥10.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301048?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.59 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 26.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301048 from its 52-week high?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. trades at ¥10.02, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥13.41 and 19% above the low of ¥8.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥10.02, calculated fair value ¥7.59 (−24%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301048 calculated?
We run Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥7.59 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥10.02. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.59, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The market capitalisation of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 5.3B CNY (≈ $802M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 1.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Earnings per share at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. are ¥0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The dividend yield of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 1.1% (payout 27.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The net margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 6.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The operating margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Revenue at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Earnings per share at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. are growing −11.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Nov 5, 2026