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Gemac Engineering Machinery Co (301048) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.9B CNY

GE Gemac Engineering Machinery Co 301048 · SHE
Price¥9.06
Fair Value¥7.95
Upside-12.3%
Quality61/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.5% net margin
generates free cash flow
1.17% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/13)
Moderate moat 45/100
Evidence: High Range ¥5.96 – ¥9.94 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥9.23 to ¥7.95 (−13.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from ¥5.96 (bear) to ¥9.94 (bull), base ¥7.95. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥20.29 ¥7.37 Fair Value ¥7.95 Aug 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.37 – ¥20.29 · fair‑value band ¥5.96 – ¥9.94 · the ¥9.06 price screens above the ¥7.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Gemac Engineering Machinery Co (301048) currently trades at ¥9.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.95, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Gemac Engineering Machinery Co generated revenue of 3.3B CNY at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 23.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.96 (bear case) to ¥9.94 (bull case); at ¥9.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -12%, 301048 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥4.24 ¥4.44 ¥4.71 76
Growth DCF ¥6.70 ¥8.21 ¥10.76 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.21 ¥6.02 ¥7.82 68
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥6.54 ¥8.10 ¥10.96 38
Owner Earnings ¥5.84 ¥7.16 ¥9.60 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥6.59 ¥8.76 ¥11.91 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥7.03 ¥9.51 ¥12.77 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥6.82 ¥9.14 ¥11.90 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.39 ¥8.26 ¥10.39 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.79 ¥8.74 ¥10.95 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥6.66 ¥8.50 ¥10.39 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.57 ¥4.43 ¥5.41 54
EPV ¥5.92 ¥6.57 ¥7.12 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.96 ¥7.95 ¥9.94 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.83 ¥6.44 ¥8.05 58
P/B Multiple ¥4.83 ¥6.44 ¥8.05 55
EV/EBIT ¥9.09 ¥11.50 ¥13.92 53
EV/EBITDA ¥8.21 ¥10.34 ¥12.46 54
EV/Revenue ¥7.01 ¥9.23 ¥11.45 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.64 ¥3.54 ¥5.28 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.70 ¥8.21 ¥10.76 72
Rev-Margin DCF ¥6.59 ¥8.84 ¥11.64 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.24 ¥4.44 ¥4.71 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.96 ¥6.72 ¥7.52 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.21 ¥6.02 ¥7.82 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.50) versus Asset-Based (¥3.54). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +23.7%
Net margin 6.5%
Return on equity 7.9%
Free cash flow 260M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 23.0
More key figures
Operating margin 10.2%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.4000
Dividend yield 1.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +34.8%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally. It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products.

Full company description

Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally. It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products. The company also offers mechanical and hydraulic transmission rail cars, electric railcars, lifting rail cars, and flat cars; and cargo equipment. In addition, it provides contact network maintenance, wire laying, network dedicated flat car, network inspection, and network pole operation, as well as insulator water washing vehicle services; and overhaul services. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Xiangyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gemac Engineering Machinery Co reported revenue of ¥3.2B in FY2025 versus ¥3.1B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥202M in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.2B CNY
Latest YoY
+0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−0.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y)
+3.3%
Revenue +1.2%/yr
FY21 ¥3.1B
FY22 ¥3.3B
FY23 ¥3.1B
FY24 ¥3.2B
FY25 ¥3.2B
Net income −4.4%/yr
FY21 ¥241M
FY22 ¥302M
FY23 ¥296M
FY24 ¥191M
FY25 ¥202M

301048 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gemac Engineering Machinery Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301048

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −12% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.74× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.48× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.4× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 17 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 31 · sector 28
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 23 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc 1GEV €887.60 €186.93 -79%
1SIE 1SIE €273.20 €91.93 -66%
SMNS SMNS C$31.76 C$22.68 -29%
Eaton Corporation ETN $407.28 $171.92 -58%
Atlas Copco AB ATCOA kr 195.15 kr 112.59 -42%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 384.10 kr 193.01 -50%
Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 76,400 KRW 7,938 KRW -90%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS kr 178.10 kr 124.54 -30%
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.19 ¥18.71 -16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co (301048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.95 versus a price of ¥9.06, about −12% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301048?
Our model-based fair value for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co is ¥7.95 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.06.
What is the quality score of 301048?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co (301048)?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 301048?
The net profit margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co is about 6.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gemac Engineering Machinery Co pay a dividend?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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