Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. ¥7.95, price ¥9.03, upside -12.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.37 – ¥20.29 · fair‑value band ¥5.96 – ¥9.94 · the ¥9.03 price screens above the ¥7.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally. It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products.
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Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally. It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products. The company also offers mechanical and hydraulic transmission rail cars, electric railcars, lifting rail cars, and flat cars; and cargo equipment. In addition, it provides contact network maintenance, wire laying, network dedicated flat car, network inspection, and network pole operation, as well as insulator water washing vehicle services; and overhaul services. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Xiangyang, China.
Stock analysis
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) currently trades at ¥9.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.95, implying the stock looks roughly 13.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥8.56 per share, and 5 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥9.03 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.54, and 17 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥5.96 (bear) to ¥9.94 (bull), the price of ¥9.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 3.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 202M CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.8B CNY (≈ $719M) · P/E ratio 22.6 · P/S ratio 1.42 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4000 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −12%, 301048 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.96Fair Value ¥7.95Bull ¥9.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2136 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price.
Compare Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.95 versus a price of ¥9.03, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301048?
Our model-based fair value for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is ¥7.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.03.
What is the quality score of 301048?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.96, optimistic scenario ¥9.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.95, about −12% upside versus a price of ¥9.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.96, optimistic scenario ¥9.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301048 use?
Our models discount Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. that is +3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (+3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.39 %: that much free cash flow Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. it is ¥7.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥9.03. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 301048 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.03, fair value ¥7.95, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301048?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.95). For Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. the two are ¥1.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. at about 4.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.03; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301048?
Our models span a range for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥5.96, base ¥7.95, optimistic ¥9.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥9.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301048?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301048 from its 52-week high?
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. trades at ¥9.03, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥13.41 and 7% above the low of ¥8.44 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥9.03, calculated fair value ¥7.95 (−12%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301048 calculated?
We run Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥9.03. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.95, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The market capitalisation of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 4.8B CNY (≈ $719M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 1.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Earnings per share at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. are ¥0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The dividend yield of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 1.2% (payout 27.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The net margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
The operating margin of Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Revenue at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. is growing +23.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. (301048)?
Earnings per share at Gemac Engineering Machinery Co. Ltd. are growing +34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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