Gemac Engineering Machinery Co (301048) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥9.23 to ¥7.95 (−13.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥5.96 (bear) to ¥9.94 (bull), base ¥7.95. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.37 – ¥20.29 · fair‑value band ¥5.96 – ¥9.94 · the ¥9.06 price screens above the ¥7.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co (301048) currently trades at ¥9.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.95, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gemac Engineering Machinery Co generated revenue of 3.3B CNY at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 23.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.96 (bear case) to ¥9.94 (bull case); at ¥9.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -12%, 301048 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.50) versus Asset-Based (¥3.54). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally. It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products.
Full company description
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and maintenance of rail engineering equipment in China and internationally. It provides screening, tamping, stable, ballast, material transportation, rail processing, comprehensive inspection, and bridge inspection products. The company also offers mechanical and hydraulic transmission rail cars, electric railcars, lifting rail cars, and flat cars; and cargo equipment. In addition, it provides contact network maintenance, wire laying, network dedicated flat car, network inspection, and network pole operation, as well as insulator water washing vehicle services; and overhaul services. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Xiangyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gemac Engineering Machinery Co reported revenue of ¥3.2B in FY2025 versus ¥3.1B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥202M in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
301048 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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