Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥7.34 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
✓Quality 73/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +3.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.84% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range ¥7.72 – ¥43.41 · fair‑value band ¥7.20 – ¥9.18 · the ¥36.87 price screens above the ¥7.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Matrix Design Co., Ltd. engages in the space design and soft furnishing businesses in China. It offers its services for residential real estate, sales offices, model rooms, hotels, commercial, education and health care facilities, cultural venues, and other space areas. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365) currently trades at ¥36.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.34, implying the stock looks roughly 402.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥14.22 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥36.87 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.65, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥7.20 (bear) to ¥9.18 (bull), the price of ¥36.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 737M CNY in FY2025 versus 886M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was 62.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.6B CNY (≈ $991M) · P/E ratio 160.3 · P/S ratio 13.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2300 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 141% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −80%, 301365 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.20Fair Value ¥7.34Bull ¥9.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−30.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 7%
2025 sits 85% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 820 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−25% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)160.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.29× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.06× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF5.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301365
Frequently asked questions
Is Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.34 versus a price of ¥36.87, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301365?
Our model-based fair value for Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is ¥7.34 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥36.87.
What is the quality score of 301365?
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.34 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.20, optimistic scenario ¥9.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.34, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥36.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.20, optimistic scenario ¥9.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 721M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301365 use?
Our models discount Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A that is +21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (+21.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.46 %: that much free cash flow Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A it is ¥7.34 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥36.87. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 301365 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥36.87, fair value ¥7.34, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301365?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥36.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.34). For Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥29.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A at about 6.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥36.87; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301365?
Our models span a range for Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥7.20, base ¥7.34, optimistic ¥9.18 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥36.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301365?
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 160.3 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Balance-sheet figures for Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301365 from its 52-week high?
Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥36.87, about 5% below its 52-week high of ¥38.87 and 141% above the low of ¥15.31 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥36.87, calculated fair value ¥7.34 (−80%), Quality Score 73/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301365 calculated?
We run Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The closing price on Sep 15, 2026 was ¥36.87. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.34, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The market capitalisation of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is 6.6B CNY (≈ $991M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is 13.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A are ¥0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 160.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The dividend yield of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The net margin of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is 8.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
The operating margin of Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is −25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Revenue at Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A is growing −14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A (301365)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Design Co. Ltd. A are growing +24.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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