Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. stock ¥15.23, price ¥58.05, upside -73.8%, quality 24 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range ¥34.65 – ¥135.36 · fair‑value band ¥11.24 – ¥21.16 · the ¥58.05 price screens above the ¥15.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of material automation processing production lines and equipment in China and internationally.
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The company offers dual planetary mixer, slurry mixing system, twin-screw continuous slurry mixer, ribbon mixer, ploughshare mixer, rod-pin bead mill, fully automatic big bag unloading and unpacking machine, automatic small bag unloading machine, layer by layer debagging machine, big bag packing machine, small and big bag unloading stations, jet mill, low speed kettle dryer, paddle mixer, semi-auto iron remover, high gravity material dispense mixer, multi-components suction and weighing scale, and IBC rotary mixer.
It also provides material handlings systems, including mixing and drying, slurry mixing, intelligent control, dust collecting, packing, metering and dosing, pneumatic conveying, storage and arch breaking, unpacking and feeding, and dispersion grinding.
The company's products are used in batteries, fine chemicals, food, medicine, rubber, plastic, material processing, and other industries. Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Dongguan, China.
Stock analysis
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662) currently trades at ¥58.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.23, 73.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥27.72 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥58.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.64, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥11.24 (bear) to ¥21.16 (bull), the price of ¥58.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 2.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 579M CNY in FY2021, a compound +36.9%/yr. Reported net income was 59.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 6.7B CNY (≈ $1.0B) Small · P/E ratio 70.8 · P/S ratio 3.01 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8200 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −74%, 301662 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥11.24Fair Value ¥15.23Bull¥21.16
Price ¥58.05 · Upside -73.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3359 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥13.76¥17.30¥27.7177
Growth DCF¥13.22¥17.92¥26.3876
EPV¥14.35¥15.47¥16.4074
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥13.76¥17.30¥27.7177
5Y Revenue Exit¥17.46¥27.72¥48.9068
5Y EBITDA Exit¥19.47¥31.85¥55.7370
5Y P/E Exit¥13.51¥22.51¥34.4867
10Y Revenue Exit¥15.57¥29.09¥39.9264
10Y EBITDA Exit¥17.30¥32.75¥61.8063
10Y P/E Exit¥13.52¥21.89¥36.1960
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥3.51¥24.48¥34.3561
Lynch FV¥8.59¥12.27¥15.9559
PEG = 1.0¥8.59¥12.27¥15.9555
EPV¥14.35¥15.47¥16.4074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥5.75¥9.88¥13.0966
DDM Multi-Stage¥5.75¥9.25¥10.6165
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥8.13¥10.84¥13.5563
P/S Multiple¥6.58¥8.77¥10.9758
P/B Multiple¥39.91¥53.21¥66.5255
EV/EBIT¥18.86¥25.04¥31.2266
EV/EBITDA¥17.58¥23.33¥29.0967
EV/Revenue¥13.55¥19.22¥24.8954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥4.38¥6.64¥8.3054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥13.22¥17.92¥26.3876
Rev-Margin DCF¥17.46¥30.91¥53.4068
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥8.80¥8.63¥8.7674
ROIC Compounder¥15.47¥19.01¥21.3070
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥11.18¥15.97¥20.7665
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.5% a year for the price.
Compare Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−73.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)70.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.01× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow102.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA47.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥15.23 versus a price of ¥58.05, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301662?
Our model-based fair value for Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is ¥15.23 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥58.05.
What is the quality score of 301662?
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥15.23 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.24, optimistic scenario ¥21.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥15.23, about −74% upside versus a price of ¥58.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.24, optimistic scenario ¥21.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.71% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +47.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +43.7 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301662 use?
Our models discount Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. that is +47.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. grew +43.7 % a year. The price currently implies +47.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (+47.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.97 %: that much free cash flow Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. it is ¥15.23 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of ¥58.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 301662 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥58.05, fair value ¥15.23, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301662?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥58.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥15.23). For Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. the two are ¥42.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. at about 6.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥58.05; our models calculate a fair value of ¥15.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301662?
Our models span a range for Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥11.24, base ¥15.23, optimistic ¥21.16 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price ¥58.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301662?
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.8 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥15.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 47.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301662 from its 52-week high?
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. trades at ¥58.05, about 57% below its 52-week high of ¥135.36 and 4% above the low of ¥56.00 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥15.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price ¥58.05, calculated fair value ¥15.23 (−74%), Quality Score 24/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301662 calculated?
We run Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥15.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was ¥58.05. Our model-based fair value is ¥15.23, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥21.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥11.24 to ¥21.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The market capitalisation of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is 6.7B CNY (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is 3.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Earnings per share at Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. are ¥0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 70.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The dividend yield of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is 0.7% (payout 50.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The net margin of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
The operating margin of Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Revenue at Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662)?
Earnings per share at Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. are growing −80.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. (301662) hold?
Ongoal Technology Co., Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 36.0M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026